Ladies and gentleman, pay very close attention because Mr dbtunr was one of the first investors in SLW maybe a decade or so back when I first got involved with this board.
Good to see you again!
I have a handful of contracts I'm holding, but I have a lot of cash I'd like to buy more shares with, I was hoping for lower prices in the low $21.xx silver area.
Here's the key info:
Start date End date Underlying symbol
01-Dec-12 22-Feb-13 Comex® Silver March 2013 Futures SIH3
May 2014 is about to take over.
Spoofing is that illegal practice in trading where a market participant adds a order to the bid/ask structure and then immediately cancels it. Why? the price moves towards liquidity by my observation. When the price in silver looked like it was about to run, an order for 1025 contracts appeared for 1 sec at lower prices then disappeared. 1025x 5000 oz per contract x21.87 current silver price puts it near $110 million leveraged order.
I have never seen an order that big on the SI (silver) contract. The largest I've seen is about 500.
Some really big money is here folks, really big.
I'm not even trying to trade my position now, I just want to add to it, but I'm not sure it's going to go much lower. Today was a key reversal in bullishly in silver standard resources and if it weren't for the expiring contracts in silver I'd say today was a key reversal bullishly for it too.
Feb Silver Futures don't have value.... I am not attacking you.... Just trying to share knowledge.
A Futures contract that means something is one that dictates the price from now until roughly 3 months into the future. How do you figure this out? Go to the one where billions of dollars are playing not millions.
While we were in Dec, Mar is the contract that dictates the price action.
While we were in Jan, Mar is still the contract that dictates the price action.
While in Feb and up to a certain date 2/3's of the way through, Mar is still the contact that dictates the price action.
in Feb, the march contract expires and all the money moves to the next long term contract which is May- called rollover. The prices in the remaining part of this month, in march and in april will be dictated by the May contract.
Whereas between 2000-7000 contract volume in open interest might participate in Jan or 2000-7000 in Feb or 2000-7000 in April, representing $0.8 billion dollars in silver max in each of those months, the open interest in March and May represents 100,000 contracts or leveraging $10.9 billion for each of months of Mar and May.
trying to be helpful...but depending on writing style and interpreting abilities.. often misunderstood..
Hey Cgreens, Call_me_dudee, All4reel,
Good to see you guys still around. That was some beating silver took for the last several years. The fact that you (and I) are all showing up at the same time to this old board suggests a number of different types of investor have had signals trigger all suggestive of the same thing...silver looks like it's ready to roll again.
This morning I woke thinking I was going to sell some, but saw some things that suggested I should use a different approach than targeting a sell point -use a trailing stop. It's worked out for me. I have less than a handful of contracts in the low $20.20 area. Monster day for me!
My gut feeling is that silver is trying to go after $22.065 (this isn't a calculation) just eyeballing it. It is signalling a monthly trendline breakout, has signaled a weekly, daily, 240 min and 60 min breakout, so all types of money of different duration has been jumping in. A LOT of traders wanted in and didn't get an opportunity. The chatter is that since silver has underperformed everything (gold, silver miners) that it has the most upside and we saw that today with a 4:1 gain silver:gold. Call option guys seem to be looking for this move to last at least several weeks. I'll be monitoring ticks on 5 min charts to figure out when a real pullback has started and lighten up then in preparation for what will likely be a short correction and vault further up. Today, one tried to take shape but easily broke down.
Volatility next week should be murder with the roll over.
I changed my mind, I won't sell some of my position, I'm going to have to figure out a stop.
I only got 2/3's of the contracts I wanted but who's complaining.
This breakout is incredibly strong and I can tell you it telegraphs ( for the young people look it up, it was the first internet..) significantly higher prices. If is really amazing that it happened before end of day today, because next week rollover from march to may would begin to accelerate.
For any target's I had, silver has far exceeded them by about 15 cents, Also I wrote in an earlier post the pit traders were looking at around 1313 in gold, and I had $1318, well the so far high is 1319.60. Yesterday, there were a lot of folks shorting at the CME close, some of them are caught this morning. Poor guys, I know what that feels like.
I'm llooking to selling 1/3 to maybe 1/2 of my position up here and looking to reload some lower..It will be tricky, silver was held back hard while gold and silver miners were rising and you can see what's happening now, it's up 3x to gold's gain The signal to sell will start on a 5 min chart. Every 5 min chart gives way to the dominance of a 15 min, which gives way to hours, then days, then weeks, then months.
I know it's early in the month, but silver is putting in a monthly breakout on the chart. Last time this happened was 1 yr ago, and the run was $5.00. Also, weekly chart is putting in signs of a breakout that also reveals previous $5.00 move.
The problem: where it sits in relation to March contract expiry on Feb 22. 30% of the open interest has gone to the back month (May) and with only 70% of the ammunition available in the current month, can silver muster enough to break some key price points. History says no. Typically, there are 2 to 3 fake out's and they will occur next week if this thing can't pop before this Friday.
Gold taps $1299.7.
Who knows the reason, but silver pulled gold up today and everything else.
Meanwhile, the miner's are rolling over (if you take SSRI as the lead indicator). Money is trying to break this long miner short metal trade and
Silver only needs crack $20.504 or greater on a 5 min close and bulls will have complete control. If this happens I add a few more contracts in the low $20.4x's. If that close on the 5 min happens my next targets are at the $21.00 even level or just slightly before. However, this bear has gone on for so long and to such oversold levels some overshooting to the upside is necessary to balance out the picture.
I should point out one other thing, in case anyone has bought Silver Standard due to my posts. It is at it's exhaustion point. The only way I keep it moving forward is if it closes above $9.57 US. If it doesn't, I sell it, and if tomorrow it gets above that price, I look to re-establish the long position.
I was stopped out of all of my long silver. Booked a ok profit for a days work, but very disappointed by the constant inability for silver to move in a balanced way. Silver is the only thing I trade that never fulfills its bullish moves. It always signals it's about to run bullish, then fails this while being extremely oversold.
I still have my long Silver Standard and looks like I'm about to get stopped out of that one too but with significantly greater profit than the metal trade.
I use to do EW a while ago, now I use some equations I developed myself -linear regression analysis.
Silver metal just gave an extremely strong buy, after my stop seems to have held.
Staying above $20.103 is a long, stopping again at $20.083.
Let's go silver...SLW seems to be having some nice gains too. I should have thought about the fact that since it has underperformed relative to SSRI it has due to catch up. Oh well.
Well the price of silver has come $20.083, averting stopping me again by $0.001, and for the last 45 minutes has been bouncing off that price with another 4 doji's.
because of how precisely it hit my price, I will lower the stop by a couple of pennies.
Sharpie, thxs for sharing. I not a bull or a bear, I just go the way the action dictates. Always interested in seeing how other traders approach it.
On one charting feed I have, 5 of the last 6 candles were doji's- A candle that open's moves up and /or down but finishes right where it opened. This indicates major indecision and a battle when gold just popped another $3 upward. Pit traders are looking for gold up around $1315. I have $1318.
What's horrible above this silver move is it is being pulled along by gold and always looks like it wants to puke. The best moves are when silver metal pulls everything up or the silver miners pull everything up.
The silver miners are pulling everything up but I've never seen the metal behave so pathetically. I gave the bullish case and stops for it. For the current position I stop out completely with a price print below $20.083.
The fallback in silver metals prices is deemed a fake with a print back above $20.25 at which point I have a new buy signal.
Where are we today:
Holding contracts in Silver Mar 2014 Long at $19.991. My Stop was $19.961.
The price came within $0.001 of stopping me out with a low of $19.962 Sunday night.
1 contract was sold at $20.11 @ 1:00 am this morning, making my trade risk-less (I can not lose money).
Target is now readjusted due to the convergence of 5 different setups. The highest probability trade now becomes: A 5 min candle close above $20.504 confirms a break out, the higher above this price it closes the stronger the break out. It will then retest no lower than $20.384. I buy more contracts in front of $20.384 and new stop for all contracts becomes $20.302.
Concerns: 25% of the volume has rolled over to May. Is there enough power to push it before rollover begins to accelerate; Trade has been to short metal and be long miners, does this now reverse to long metals short miners.....$silver:$xau doesn't confirm metal will outperfrom miners yet...it came close wed+thursday.
Let's play ball
Like in the old days, I'll lay out my entire trade before hand so that I can be held accountable. Here's my complete trade plan, because I'm signing off for the weekend.
Close above Mar $19.991 is a buy, 4 contracts, stopping $19.961 with $600 risk.
The trade becomes risk-less selling 1 contract @$20.11 for $600 profit.
If the trade turns on me after $20.11,toward the stop, the worse that can happen is break-even.
Above $20.11, I make $150 for every penny silver gains, with target price indicated as $20.927 Potential profit $12,255.The problem with my price target is vaulting over $20.60 breaks "the range" trade causing potential momentum money benefit above 200 day MA @ 20.842 to increase dramatically bringing $22.068 into play.
This is the stuff dreams are made of.
have a good weekend folks
Silver March is holding $19.991. I have 4 contracts, stopping risk $19.961 for potential $600 loss.
Upside benefit: unlimited lol...