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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

chemaes44 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 22, 2014 9:21 AM Member since: Dec 1, 2005
  • Reply to

    Critical Prices

    by chemaes44 Oct 20, 2014 3:40 PM
    chemaes44 chemaes44 Oct 22, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    My Short S&P obviously failed at the stop I indicated. I re-shorted here at 1939 (not using futures on this it's too risky, I'm using volatility through canadian etf, so I'm long volatility since the S&P hit 2012'ish)
    Batting 0 for 1

    Half of my dollar short position was stopped out at 85.35, the last stop is 85.97. Above that stop the dollar is bullish again, for whatever reason (people fleeing to the safety of the dollar:)

    Batting 0 for 2

    I have silver long stopping 17.129 or lower on Dec contract. The price didn't trigger as I outlined at 17.731 to get more long at $17.671 but the intraday price yesterday to $17.653 was only 1.8 cents shy. That means the numbers are still relevant. If by 11:00 am silver finishes above $17.249 my stop changes to 17.220, and I get more long silver at $17.249.

    Batting: jury's out but not looking good

    I have silver standard long stopping for SSRI USA equivalent of $5.63

    Batting: jury's out but not looking good

    Looks like I suck. Here's the thing bottoming or topping isn't usually a specific time, but more a process over time. My rules say the reward far outweighs the risk, so take the position and stop out if necessary but then get back in if you get a signal. I might get stopped 3 to 5 times before I step back because the reward on the potential trade being right will wipe away all of those stop losses easily. However, you have to be in it to win it. I'll always be long some volatility because I figure one day we'll wake up and the S&P will have gapped 50 to 100 points overnight down, and all those thinking they could time a top will be chasing. At these levels I'll always be long some cheap silver miner calls dated out 3 mths or more. I'm looking for an October surprise.

    Good trading
    chemaes

  • Reply to

    Critical Prices

    by chemaes44 Oct 20, 2014 3:40 PM
    chemaes44 chemaes44 Oct 21, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    goat_frank,

    Please, and at your truculent discretion, in moderation or in excess as you so choose, partake in lip-locking a non-gmo goat phallus, either hairy or clean shaven to suit your immediate needs:) I suggest non-gmo since I imagine your copious consumption of gmo foods has caused some mis sequencing problems in your RNA.

    Enjoy the sausage and milk buddy.

  • chemaes44 by chemaes44 Oct 20, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    Whazzup guys and girls.

    Long time.

    S&P 500: I've added more shorts at 1895.65 stopping 1897.65 five minute close or higher.

    Silver: 5 min close above $17.731 Dec Silver, triggers taking a long position at $17.671 stopping out $17.609 5min close or lower. This price trigger kills bearish move downward in effect for what seems like years. It's tricky through that price area because silver may pause at $17.82, pullback some, before taking off, or it can just blast through $17.82.

    i don't play silver wheaton much anymore, mainly silver standard resources. for whatever reason if SLW is up or down 2% in a day, SSRI will be up or down at least twice this amount. Daily close above $6.43 CAN is SSO indicates it is a long position. For the last 3 or 4 trading days the price has been jumping around this 6.43 price making higher lows.

    US dollar index is a lock bearish to 84.24 and if lucky 83.97.

    I observe no leadership when comparing the miners to the metal. It seems some days the miners lead and some the metal leads. There is no reward in risk:reward analysis of taking short positions here. Long bear minimal risk and shorts bear greatest risk. Saw a 5000 contract volume 5 min positive candle close a few days ago and haven't seen one like it since Aug 2013 before the 20% move.

    I haven't been around for a very long time, so something must have brought me back. Yes, I adopted my system for the S&P and it's been pretty accurate.

    good trading
    chemaes

  • Reply to

    Spoofing $110 Million dollar order

    by chemaes44 Feb 20, 2014 3:39 PM
    chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 20, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    Hey dbtunr,

    Ladies and gentleman, pay very close attention because Mr dbtunr was one of the first investors in SLW maybe a decade or so back when I first got involved with this board.

    Good to see you again!

    I have a handful of contracts I'm holding, but I have a lot of cash I'd like to buy more shares with, I was hoping for lower prices in the low $21.xx silver area.

    Here's the key info:
    Start date End date Underlying symbol
    01-Dec-12 22-Feb-13 Comex® Silver March 2013 Futures SIH3

    May 2014 is about to take over.

  • Spoofing is that illegal practice in trading where a market participant adds a order to the bid/ask structure and then immediately cancels it. Why? the price moves towards liquidity by my observation. When the price in silver looked like it was about to run, an order for 1025 contracts appeared for 1 sec at lower prices then disappeared. 1025x 5000 oz per contract x21.87 current silver price puts it near $110 million leveraged order.

    I have never seen an order that big on the SI (silver) contract. The largest I've seen is about 500.

    Some really big money is here folks, really big.

    I'm not even trying to trade my position now, I just want to add to it, but I'm not sure it's going to go much lower. Today was a key reversal in bullishly in silver standard resources and if it weren't for the expiring contracts in silver I'd say today was a key reversal bullishly for it too.

    good trading
    chemaes

  • Reply to

    Feb Silver Futures

    by sharpie3444 Feb 17, 2014 7:27 AM
    chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 17, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Feb Silver Futures don't have value.... I am not attacking you.... Just trying to share knowledge.

    A Futures contract that means something is one that dictates the price from now until roughly 3 months into the future. How do you figure this out? Go to the one where billions of dollars are playing not millions.

    While we were in Dec, Mar is the contract that dictates the price action.
    While we were in Jan, Mar is still the contract that dictates the price action.
    While in Feb and up to a certain date 2/3's of the way through, Mar is still the contact that dictates the price action.

    in Feb, the march contract expires and all the money moves to the next long term contract which is May- called rollover. The prices in the remaining part of this month, in march and in april will be dictated by the May contract.

    Whereas between 2000-7000 contract volume in open interest might participate in Jan or 2000-7000 in Feb or 2000-7000 in April, representing $0.8 billion dollars in silver max in each of those months, the open interest in March and May represents 100,000 contracts or leveraging $10.9 billion for each of months of Mar and May.

    trying to be helpful...but depending on writing style and interpreting abilities.. often misunderstood..

    chemaes.

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 14, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    Hey Cgreens, Call_me_dudee, All4reel,

    Good to see you guys still around. That was some beating silver took for the last several years. The fact that you (and I) are all showing up at the same time to this old board suggests a number of different types of investor have had signals trigger all suggestive of the same thing...silver looks like it's ready to roll again.

    This morning I woke thinking I was going to sell some, but saw some things that suggested I should use a different approach than targeting a sell point -use a trailing stop. It's worked out for me. I have less than a handful of contracts in the low $20.20 area. Monster day for me!

    My gut feeling is that silver is trying to go after $22.065 (this isn't a calculation) just eyeballing it. It is signalling a monthly trendline breakout, has signaled a weekly, daily, 240 min and 60 min breakout, so all types of money of different duration has been jumping in. A LOT of traders wanted in and didn't get an opportunity. The chatter is that since silver has underperformed everything (gold, silver miners) that it has the most upside and we saw that today with a 4:1 gain silver:gold. Call option guys seem to be looking for this move to last at least several weeks. I'll be monitoring ticks on 5 min charts to figure out when a real pullback has started and lighten up then in preparation for what will likely be a short correction and vault further up. Today, one tried to take shape but easily broke down.

    Volatility next week should be murder with the roll over.

    good trading
    chemaes

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 14, 2014 8:41 AM Flag

    I changed my mind, I won't sell some of my position, I'm going to have to figure out a stop.

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 14, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    Finally!!!!!!!!!!!

    I only got 2/3's of the contracts I wanted but who's complaining.

    This breakout is incredibly strong and I can tell you it telegraphs ( for the young people look it up, it was the first internet..) significantly higher prices. If is really amazing that it happened before end of day today, because next week rollover from march to may would begin to accelerate.

    For any target's I had, silver has far exceeded them by about 15 cents, Also I wrote in an earlier post the pit traders were looking at around 1313 in gold, and I had $1318, well the so far high is 1319.60. Yesterday, there were a lot of folks shorting at the CME close, some of them are caught this morning. Poor guys, I know what that feels like.

    I'm llooking to selling 1/3 to maybe 1/2 of my position up here and looking to reload some lower..It will be tricky, silver was held back hard while gold and silver miners were rising and you can see what's happening now, it's up 3x to gold's gain The signal to sell will start on a 5 min chart. Every 5 min chart gives way to the dominance of a 15 min, which gives way to hours, then days, then weeks, then months.

    good trading
    chem

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 13, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    I know it's early in the month, but silver is putting in a monthly breakout on the chart. Last time this happened was 1 yr ago, and the run was $5.00. Also, weekly chart is putting in signs of a breakout that also reveals previous $5.00 move.

    The problem: where it sits in relation to March contract expiry on Feb 22. 30% of the open interest has gone to the back month (May) and with only 70% of the ammunition available in the current month, can silver muster enough to break some key price points. History says no. Typically, there are 2 to 3 fake out's and they will occur next week if this thing can't pop before this Friday.

    Gold taps $1299.7.

  • Who knows the reason, but silver pulled gold up today and everything else.

    Meanwhile, the miner's are rolling over (if you take SSRI as the lead indicator). Money is trying to break this long miner short metal trade and

    Silver only needs crack $20.504 or greater on a 5 min close and bulls will have complete control. If this happens I add a few more contracts in the low $20.4x's. If that close on the 5 min happens my next targets are at the $21.00 even level or just slightly before. However, this bear has gone on for so long and to such oversold levels some overshooting to the upside is necessary to balance out the picture.

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 10, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    I should point out one other thing, in case anyone has bought Silver Standard due to my posts. It is at it's exhaustion point. The only way I keep it moving forward is if it closes above $9.57 US. If it doesn't, I sell it, and if tomorrow it gets above that price, I look to re-establish the long position.

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 10, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    I was stopped out of all of my long silver. Booked a ok profit for a days work, but very disappointed by the constant inability for silver to move in a balanced way. Silver is the only thing I trade that never fulfills its bullish moves. It always signals it's about to run bullish, then fails this while being extremely oversold.

    I still have my long Silver Standard and looks like I'm about to get stopped out of that one too but with significantly greater profit than the metal trade.

    Until tomorrow.

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 10, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    I use to do EW a while ago, now I use some equations I developed myself -linear regression analysis.

    Silver metal just gave an extremely strong buy, after my stop seems to have held.

    Staying above $20.103 is a long, stopping again at $20.083.

    Let's go silver...SLW seems to be having some nice gains too. I should have thought about the fact that since it has underperformed relative to SSRI it has due to catch up. Oh well.

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 10, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    Well the price of silver has come $20.083, averting stopping me again by $0.001, and for the last 45 minutes has been bouncing off that price with another 4 doji's.

    because of how precisely it hit my price, I will lower the stop by a couple of pennies.

  • Reply to

    23.19

    by sharpie3444 Feb 10, 2014 8:58 AM
    chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 10, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    Sharpie, thxs for sharing. I not a bull or a bear, I just go the way the action dictates. Always interested in seeing how other traders approach it.
    Good trading
    Chemaes

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 10, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Bought back a couple contracts silver long in front of my $20.083 stop

  • On one charting feed I have, 5 of the last 6 candles were doji's- A candle that open's moves up and /or down but finishes right where it opened. This indicates major indecision and a battle when gold just popped another $3 upward. Pit traders are looking for gold up around $1315. I have $1318.

  • Reply to

    23.19

    by sharpie3444 Feb 10, 2014 8:58 AM
    chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 10, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    With a short at 23.17 where do you stop, where do you reverse the position?

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 10, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    What's horrible above this silver move is it is being pulled along by gold and always looks like it wants to puke. The best moves are when silver metal pulls everything up or the silver miners pull everything up.

    The silver miners are pulling everything up but I've never seen the metal behave so pathetically. I gave the bullish case and stops for it. For the current position I stop out completely with a price print below $20.083.
    The fallback in silver metals prices is deemed a fake with a print back above $20.25 at which point I have a new buy signal.

SLW
20.45-0.30(-1.45%)Dec 19 4:10 PMEST

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