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Walgreen Co. Message Board

chemsysus 86 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2015 11:40 AM Member since: Aug 28, 2012
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  • Reply to

    THERE HAS TO BE MORE TO IT!!

    by careful2invest Jan 28, 2015 7:18 PM
    chemsysus chemsysus Jan 28, 2015 8:05 PM Flag

    The launch of Afrezza was well publicized months ago to the folks that matter: physicians with diabetic patients. The medical community and many diabetics know Afrezza is available. There is no need for a Madison Avenue, mega-budget ad campaign or a Super Bowl commercial. Afrezza is a unique therapeutic. This is not like selling cars or beer that require extensive, expensive marketing campaigns to differentiate the product in the mind of the consumer.
    Sanofi and Mannkind do not need to spend $100M on TV commercials to get Afrezza sales going. Big money was spent training sales staff and creating training materials for physicians and patients. Big money was spent getting Afrezza coded into the medical insurance company computers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • MNKD told me via email that the 4Q14 earnings report will be around Feb 24 -- but there is no official date announced yet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The 70 million shares sold short are soon to be bought back quickly.
    Expect a steep climb in MNKD during the next few weeks.
    Going to $8 soon. Might spike to $10-$12 during a short squeeze.
    $10-$12 will be the next price range for MNKD.
    After marketing expands to worldwide, MNKD going to $35.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    May $ 10 Calls

    by funnyshorts2013 Feb 6, 2015 7:27 PM
    chemsysus chemsysus Feb 7, 2015 12:15 AM Flag

    You should sell most or all of the May $10 and get a strike price closer to in the money.
    You risk loosing all your money.
    The May $8 looks more likely to be profitable, and the premium is only twice that of the $10 strike (30 cents versus 15 cents), so the leverage is still good.
    Hard to say how high MNKD will go by May, but surely over $8 -- probably to $10 - $13.
    At $10, you loose with the May $10 but make 6x your money with the May $8.
    If MNKD only goes to $12, then you make the same profit with the $8 strike and the $10 strike.
    If MNKD goes over $12, then better to have twice as many $10 strike.
    If MNKD is $10 to $12 in May, then you make more money with half the number of $8 strike.
    If MNKD is below $10 in May, then you loose all your money with the $10 strike, but make a profit with MNKD over $8.30.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As part of the marketing deal with Sanofi, MannKind will get up to $925M in milestone payments.
    Sanofi paid MannKind $150M on or about September 29, which is 4Q14.
    MannKind reports 4Q14 earnings on or about February 17.
    Earnings should be about 30 cents a share.
    Sanofi paid MannKind $50M on or about January 8, 2015. That leaves another $725M in milestone payments, not including the 35% cut of Afrezza profits, which will begin to accrue now that Afrezza is available in the USA. Typically, when an drug development company reports a profit for the first time, the stock takes a nice jump up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chemsysus chemsysus Feb 7, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    Hi Harden_colton1,

    Please specifically disclose one or two forums that inform your statement:
    "Go to any diabetic forum and see how many of the patients are denied a prescription of Afrezza due the the prescribing doc's hesitation to give this drug because they just don't know how it will affect the lungs 5, 10, 20 years down the line."

    Persons who used Afrezza in clinical trials did not typically have any respiratory trouble.
    A few did, and that was noted and got put on the label.
    FDA is very conservative with regards to informing patients of possible side effects.
    Afrezza is much better than a needle.

    People breath in dust all the time. Afrezza turns to water in the lungs.
    Asthmatics use inhalers all the time. No reports of adverse effects or deaths from that therapeutic.

    I think your concerns are valid, but out of proportion to the facts.
    I predict Afrezza sales will exceed expectations.

    Chemsysus

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Tomorrow -- Breakout or Consolidation?
    The price stalled around resistance at $7 while 10 million shares traded.
    Why anyone would sell at $7 considering the upside?
    I suppose, if you bought at $5 recently a profit of 40% is good.
    Seems to me, technical traders sold, and the move towards $10 will continue.
    I hope to see my February $7 calls well in the money before February 19.
    Massive short covering would be nice to boost the price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    When Mannkind hits $14

    by f77sball Jan 14, 2015 12:57 PM
    chemsysus chemsysus Jan 28, 2015 12:40 AM Flag

    Short covering will be evidenced by a spike in the trading volume, and a spike in the share price.
    Shares sold short -- 76 million. Do the math: normal trading volume of 4M shares per day, then consider anything over 4M to be "shorts bought back".
    I expect short covering to kick in when MNKD passes $8 per share. Short covering might take MNKD well over $10 -- maybe $15.
    The shorts might wait until official sales numbers are in for one month or consecutive months. Or, after reading the writing on the wall, cover sooner.

    With Afrezza going worldwide, MNKD to $50 is not unreasonable.
    Current worldwide diabetes sales is about $40B and projected to go to $50B in 2016.
    Afrezza with 30% of the market: $12B in sales, MNKD makes conservatively $2B in profits or about $5 per share. Pick a PE. Do your own calculations for Afrezza as a blockbuster.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Earnings reports are sometimes difficult to decipher.
    Seems that RIG earned 95 cents per share in 4Q14 and $4.94 for FY2014.
    Viewed differently, RIG lost $5.29 in FY2014 and lost $2.04 in 4Q14, apparently due to purging $2.987B in goodwill from the balance sheet. The tangible book value is now about $38 per share.

    What would you pay for a stock paying a 60 cent dividend, that earns $5 per share, with a book value of $38? I suspect that RIG will trade towards $25 over the next few days. RIG is expected to earn about $2.50 per share in FY2015.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Chart finally looking excellent

    by trevor_aman Jan 26, 2015 9:50 PM
    chemsysus chemsysus Jan 27, 2015 2:08 AM Flag

    MNKD is going to $10-$12 by summer. Was $10-$12 last year.
    Might hit a pause at $8, but $10-$12 is the next station.
    When Afrezza market expands to world-wide, then going to $35.
    Afrezza will be very popular with diabetics. Very popular.
    The up/down as a trade is no longer a profitable paradigm.
    Trading small variations will leave the trader at the station.
    UP FROM HERE -- Stay on the train.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Afrezza will gain wide acceptance by diabetics.
    Might take some time.
    Sanofi rollout is methodical and conservative.
    Next year MNKD stock will be over $25,
    What Al Mann has to say on Feb 24 may bore, or cause MNKD to soar. TBD.
    Al is a winner, and so is Alfrezza. Buy baby, Buy!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • What are the shorts thinking?
    Perhaps the shorts think Afrezza will fail like Exubra failed. Big, big mistake.
    When will the shorts wake up? I hope that I have a zillion calls at that time, because the short covering rally will huge. 80 million shares sold short get covered in a sharp up spike in MNKD stock price.
    Afrezza will succeed where Exubra failed.
    Exubra was not as good as injected insulin, was more expensive than injected insulin, and less convenient than injected insulin. The deliver mechanism was the size of two beer cans.
    Afrezza is better than injected insulin, priced about the same, and is conveniently dispensed from a thumb-size inhaler.
    Al Mann is a winner. He has created several products that alieviate human suffering. Afrezza will improve the lives of millions of diabetics. I nominate him for a Nobel Prize in medicine.
    I bought 600 more shares today on the dip below $7.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chemsysus chemsysus Feb 5, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    With approval in US market, approval in other markets is much easiner.
    EU approval will likely only require labeling/packaging customized to EU standards.
    Asia might needs some clinical trials, but if Asians were sufficiently included in the USA clinical trials, Afrezza approval in Asia might just be getting labeling/packaging approved.
    Afrezza will be sold worldwide, eventually. Probably before the end of 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chemsysus chemsysus Jan 28, 2015 12:24 AM Flag

    Hey pepperoniandmushrooms2003...you are delusional.
    Afrezza will be a huge hit with patients.
    Needles versus an inhale. Better control than injected insulin.
    Afrezza will get 30% of the market by year end--my prediction.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chemsysus by chemsysus Feb 12, 2015 11:13 PM Flag

    $7 is a major resistance line, which was broken this past week.
    The large number of $7 strike Feb 6 call options might explain the close last week at $7 (about 111620).
    Not so for Feb 13 and Feb 20.
    A bit of consolidation around $7 before the next move up, which will probably stall at about $8.25 for another round of consolidation.
    4Q14 earnings conference call might move the stock price--up of course!
    Any thought on closing the closing price for Feb 20? Something near $8 or holding at $7 again?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chemsysus by chemsysus Feb 6, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    The 4Feb15 gap was filled today.
    Hopefully, up and up from here, although looks like the overall market is due for another leg down.
    Might suppress MNKD stock price for a while.
    Might trade around $7 for a few weeks.
    I am hoping for a run towards $10 by February 19.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • When oil was $50 per barrel, RIG made money.
    When oil was $100 per barrel, RIG made money.
    RIG has $2.9B in cash. RIG has tangible equity of $40 per share.
    RIG is selling at a huge discount to tangible value.
    RIG is a Warren Buffet buy--IMHO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What we will have in next earning report?

    by biotech_invest Feb 11, 2015 4:15 PM
    chemsysus chemsysus Feb 11, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    Mannkind will report a profit for the first time, and the stock will soar.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Mutual Funds and Institutions bought RIG in recent months. Steve Newman, CEO bought 9800 shares in December 2014 at $20. Carl Ichan and Blackrock bought.
    Short interest is 110M shares or 30% of the float (9 days to cover)--setting up for a short squeeze.
    What would you pay for a stock with tangible value $40 per share, a 3.5% dividend, and earning profits of about $3 per year?
    RIG seems oversold and undervalued. Oil exploration will continue, even at $50 oil. RIG is the leader in the industry, and the Swiss know how to manage money and investments.
    $16 looks like a bottom. The low $14.50 was set in January.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by traderlooking Feb 25, 2015 11:34 AM
    chemsysus chemsysus Feb 25, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    Paying 60 cents, which is 3% dividend--nice.
    Analysts predict FY15 earnings of about $2.50.
    Book value is $40 per share.
    Cash is $2.9 Billion.
    RIG oversold and undervalued.
    Short sellers should cover.
    $16 looks like a bottom to me.

    Sentiment: Buy

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