"Comcast (CMCSA) plans to file as a bidder in next month’s auction of wireless spectrum, the cable TV firm confirmed on its earnings conference call Wednesday, in a move that could reshape the telecom industry.
One big question is whether Comcast aims to be a national player in wireless or provide mobile video services within its service area. Comcast has been building out a public Wi-Fi network using unlicensed spectrum within its local markets.
If Comcast aims to go national, it could team up with another cable firm, Charter Communications (CHTR); or it could acquire feisty T-Mobile US (TMUS) or debt-laden Sprint (S); or it could partner with industry powerhouse Verizon Communications (VZ), perhaps the most attractive option from a balance-sheet view."
Totally agree on how quickly the EPS can grow given the low number of shares. With their huge backlog that is still growing, their revenue should also continue growing at a very healthy rate. Even after the run up, this is still trading no where near what it should be. It might seem like a typical pumper talking when I say that I believe this can easily get to $10 to $15, or even more this year, but if you actually look into the details of what we already know about the current state of the company (their backlog, their booking rate, how they recognize the revenue across multiple years, their expenses, and their management), you'll see that my price targets are quite realistic.
The most significant take away from today's trading is the fact that it broke through the $1.18 resistance and reached $1.26. Take a look at the intraday high for the past four trading days, and you'll see what I mean. Regardless of how it close today, breaking through that resistance is a great sign.
You are free to draw your own conclusions of course. Sometimes the success of an idea depends on the timing of its implementation. The world has to be ready. It requires x-number of smartphones/tablets in the market, the users expectations/demand for info, the percentage of ad budgets being allocated to mobile advertising.
sd_petri, Samsung canNOT convert any of the $15mm to common shares until Maturity Date (12/31/2021).
All details can found in the 11/19/15 8-K filing announcing the deal.
"The Holder may convert the Principal Amount and the accrued interest hereunder into shares of the Company’s Common Stock at the Conversion Price (as defined below) on the Maturity Date..."
"...the Holder shall give written notice of such exercise not less than ten (10) days prior to the Maturity Date..."
Unless Netlist gets a buyout offer outside of Samsung, there is no reason to pay Samsung back before 12/31/2021.
Obviously free apps make money through advertising. Zonetail's success will depend on how many properties they are able to sign up, the quality of their service, and the rates the advertisers are willing to pay. Some businesses doing the same will fail and some will succeed. Zonetail's management have the experience and connections in the industry to succeed, and the 100+ hotels / 1800 condos is a good start. If they get a some of the major international hotel chains, even better. As for Smith's share of all this, obviously Zonetail will get the majority of the revenue given Zonetail will do most of the work, but that's not the true value of this partnership for Smith. It is a stepping stone for Netwise Captivate, an example to showcase the technology in the real world. It can then be included in other industries like shopping centers, tourist spots, and basically anywhere large crowds gather. A small piece of a large pie still has the potential to be a significant revenue stream.
The $8mm from Samsung was an engineering fee (revenue in Q3?), and the other $15mm from Samsung is a 6 year term loan (not a revolver/loc). They don't have to pay any of it back until 12/31/2021, at which point Samsung could elect to convert it to shares of common stock. In case Netlist is acquired, they could pay Samsung back early, but there would be a penalty in the form of very cheap stock options that basically give Samsung about 4% the company. Due to Samsung's right of first refusal and the virtual 4% ownership of Netlist in case of a buyout, the ultimate buyer of Netlist would most likely be Samsung unless some other entity is willing to go on a bidding war with Samsung.
As noted in another post, they should have about $24mm cash + $5mm LOC (0 to minimal current utilization) from SVB at the end of Q4 2015 after paying back their other loans. Having an LOC doesn't mean you have to draw in it. Companies always like to have flexibility in their finances for various reasons, including the ability to park profits from foreign sales offshore to reduce tax liabilities. i.e. That's why even cash rich companies like Apple and Microsoft sell bonds to raise cash.
For context, here are some info on Zonetail:
* 100+ hotel partners evenly split between the US and Canada, plus a few offshore
* 1,800 condominium buildings
* Negotiating with major international hotel chains to launch the app on a chain-wide basis
I'm sticking with my estimate that the decision would come between 3-5 weeks after the transcript was mailed. Frankly, any delay hurts Inphi a lot more than Netlist since Inphi is the one that needs to ship their DDR4 LRDIMM buffers asap in order to compete with Montage and IDT. Netlist don't need the cash from Inphi at this point since they had $13mm+ at end of Q3 and they added $23mm from Samsung in Q4, plus up to $5mm LOC from SVB. Even after repaying Fortress's loans and perhaps paying down some of the AP, they should still have about $24mm in cash + $5mm LOC at end of Q4 2015.
It's just a recap of why the appeal court sided with Netlist. The info itself is not new, but of course any exposure where Netlist is listed as the winner is good exposure. The readers of that article could be potential investors. Lawyers typically have money to invest.
LRDIMM module makers will not be using Inphi's buffers unless Inphi gets licensing from Netlist. Anyone who tries would likely face an immediate request for an injunction based on Netlist's '537 and '185 patents. Every day Inphi waits, Montage and IDT's LRDIMM buffer market share solidifies and the more difficult it is for the Inphi CEO to come up with new excuses on why they still haven't shipped their buffers yet. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Inphi would want to go to trial at this point. The real question is whether Netlist wants to settle. Hopefully Samsung is encouraging a settlement as others here suspects.
A while back when Netlist was asked about DDR4 LRDIMM adoption of '185, we were pointed to examples of public info from Montage/IDT websites describing the distributed architecture being used. It was the beginning of the suspicion that Montage and IDT have some kind of agreement that they would license Netlist's LRDIMM patents once they are confirmed by PTAB. Since there are multiple LRDIMM patents involved, it obvious does not make sense to licence one patent at a time. It makes sense to negotiate all the IP licenses for the same product in one deal.
The existence of this agreement with Montage and IDT is most likely the reason why Montage and IDT are the only ones shipping DDR4 LRDIMM buffers, why Inphi haven't shipped any despite the buffers being supposed ready more than a year ago. Anyone who disagrees with this conclusion, please provide one even remotely possible reason why Inphi haven't shipped DDR4 LRDIMM buffers yet.
The likely Montage / IDT agreement does not need to be disclosed until the actual licensing terms are determined and everyone signs. It isn't material until then. Of course you cannot finalize these terms until the patents involve clears PTAB. The actual royalty percentages obviously depends on the number of patents and how critical they are. We now know that '185 and '537 are confirmed, and PTAB decision on '912 is any day now. As mentioned before, 92 claims were confirmed by the examiner going into the appeal, so chances are pretty good for Netlist, but regardless of the results, it still means LRDIMM related licensing deals could be announced soon, it's just a matter of what percentage of the multi-billion dollar market Netlist will get.
Google the following if you want to see the latest Intel validation report: intel ddr4 lrdimm validation 8800
Even if Inphi decides to trash their DDR4 LRDIMM buffers, they still have to pay Netlist for DDR3 LRDIMM. Remember that Netlist "alleges that Inphi is contributorily infringing and actively inducing the infringement of" Netlist patents. In order words, it's not just the revenue from the buffers sales, but the LRDIMM module level sales that Netlist lost because of Inphi.
Even if Inphi announces they are trashing their DDR4 LRDIMM buffers in their next conference call, it would only further confirm that Netlist owns the key patents in LRDIMM. Netlist would still be getting royalties from other buffer suppliers Montage and IDT. Makes no difference to Netlist how many sources the royalties comes from, because the market size for LRDIMM ($3B in 2013 to $7B in 2018) would not change regardless of whether there are 2 buffer suppliers or 3 suppliers.
What will Inphi CEO say in their next earnings CC on Feb 4th, 2016?
Here's some fun reading from previous calls...
N. Quinn Bolton (Analyst): "When do you think we'll start to see the first LRDIMMs using the Inphi DDR4 data buffers? Is that -- would you expect that here in the fourth quarter?"
Inphi CEO: "We're currently working with Intel and the module makers to achieve the green qualification at the LRDIMM module level and expect that in the next few weeks."
Doug Freedman (Analyst): "And on the LRDIMM front for DDR4 when do you think you might be able to impact the market share there...?"
Inphi CEO: "We are, our buffer solution is currently being evaluated by all memory vendor and is difficult to predict the timing of that revenue ramp..."
Quinn Bolton (Analyst): "Could you just tell us, are you kind of on track with that second generation data buffer...?"
Inphi CEO: "We are on track for our Gen 2 product. We do believe to enable us to capture a leadership position in DDR4. We have sampled or registered the device and expect to sample our data buffer solution in the coming three months."
Quinn Bolton (Analyst): "Can you give us some sense where you are on the second gen data buffer?"
Inphi CEO: "...we haven’t discussed specifics, we’re excited about our second generation data buffer, and believe that we will gain market share as a result. And that would translate into increased revenue starting in early 2016."
Richard Shannon (Analyst): "...a question about share in DDR4." ... "Did you mean to be that both for registers and buffers, or is it specific to one or the other?"
Inphi CEO: '...we'll begin – we think ship buffer sometime next year...'
Some Analyst: 'Any update on your DDR4 LRDIMM buffer business?'
Inphi CEO: Can't wait to hear what he has to say
There were no more attempts to stay the issuance of the official mandate on Friday, which means no more delay tactics in the federal appeal court. Again, let's hope that means they are ready to talk settlement again because clearly no memory maker is willing to use Inphi's DDR4 LRDIMM buffers without licensing deal with Netlist.
Possible triggers for next week or two. It just takes ONE of these to move NLST higher next week.
1. PTAB decision on '912 between now and a week or so from now.
2. Possible settlement with Inphi. One would expect them to be negotiating throughout the weekend with the '537 decision being out. They might or might not wait for the '912 decision to finalize any settlement though.
3. Possible licensing announcement with Montage or IDT.
4. Product update on HyperVault? A milestone payment would be great, but have no idea when though.
5. EV3 and/or NV4 related customer or order announcements. They just might be saving some of these announcements to ensure $1 for 10 days compliance.
6. Settlement with Google before or after PTAB decision on '912.
7. Some investors already familiar with NLST might be coming off the sidelines after the wash sale rule is up if they sold last month for tax reasons. Additionally, more investors might come in after seeing the recent news and price/volume movement.