actually one of the articles says hold and one strong buy -- isn't Zacks a short seller's favorite?
the Form 4's that were filed July 23, 2014?
It seems that directors Marceau Shlumberger and Gerald Hannahs both exercised options at 5.68 on July 10th -- Unfortunately my Iphone won't let me scroll to the right to see whether they kept or sold these shares - can anyone help me out here? Thanks in advance
They didn't really mention an allocation for Badami on their 2014 -- 200 million cap-ex in the conference call.
I think that they wait until the own it in December before even thinking what to do with spending money there-- and don't forget, Badami is one of the coldest places in the world in December. They probably won't be drilling until after their fiscal year ends next April. They need allocated funds and a rig -- and ability to move a rig to Badami. As far North as Badami is located, there probably aren't 4 hours of daylight per day in December. Next summer is much more realistic.
a couple of scenario's could account for this jump(I am being optimistic of course)
1) Ru9 has found oil hundreds of feet thick (it will still take a couple of weeks to get it flowing) -- and management has at long last decided that they should buy back 1-2 million shares before announcing flow rates.
2) one of the probable major shorts (possibly Hilcorp) has heard thru the Alaskan grapevine that Ru9 has hit oil and decided to cover
3) Ru9 has hit and Sword results from all three zones will be forthcoming soon (they did just get the permit for all three June 19th -- so it would take a month or so to get all three zones flowing.
4) all of the above
This was a big spike on big volume this morning. 225K shares by 10:30 portends a large share trading day. Might be time to buy more. Alaska oil workers are such a close knit community that news from the success of one company could spread like wildfire. I sure am glad that I bought an extra 70K shares yesterday.
Miller is front page news -- article, which include pix of David Hall, entitled " Miller's 'banner' year"
"Miller is notching record growth, based largely on what it touts as a string of drilling successes in Alaska.
The company is however, spilling considerable red ink along the way"
While it talks a lot about the yearly and quarterly results -- it does so in glowing terms. (It gives all the numbers which we all know by now)
Much of the drilling has focused on restoring production from damaged wells on the Osprey platform
which was idle when Miller acquired it out of bankruptcy of previous operator Pacific Energy.
Part of Miller's strategy has been to acquire its own fleet of drilling rigs.
In a recent filing, it talks about the $7 million deal for the Glacier No. 1 rig, -- a carrier mounted drilling rig that will be used to further develop the North Fork natural gas field on the Kenai Peninsula.
David Hall, Miller's point man in Alaska said that company is completing a new well on the Osprey (ru9) to prove up reserves in the southern reaches of the Redoubt structure, and plans to drill another in the Northern fault block (ru12). These wells could be very impactful to the company's reserves Hall says.
Elsewhere, Sword was drilled at the West McArthur oil field-- and Hall says it has been a success brining in a steady rate of 600-650 bbls/oil daily.
In the North Fork field, Hall said that the company evaluated for oil while reworking a well and came away with encouraging preliminary results. Expect a further announcement he said.
The company also plans to drill a second well at Olsen Creek.
lastly, trial date set for Feb 9, 2015 on the securities fraud case that alleges Miller execs overstated the value of the Cook Inlet oil and gas assets the company acquired and violated accounting principles. Plaintiff's contend that this had the effect of artificially inflating the stock price which subsequently crashed when the fraud was exposed the article says
I guess the conference call went good. It had me a little confused, but reading the transcript this morning helps. The increase from Brean might have something to do with the fact that Ru9 should come online in the next 2-4 weeks, and when it does, it will increase proven reserves by 50 million barrels(!) -- which would mean increase the value of the company by $500 million(!). It is a south step out well, and they have already drilled 17000 feet, with only 500 to go until they reach the Hemlock formation -- which is their primary target. They think that this one has several pay zones already including one they have already identified with over 200 feet thick of oil-- similar to the zones at Sword -- but larger. The originally intended to drill another 2000 feet, but say that it is only a few more days of drilling. Hall thinks that the more difficult part of the drilling is behind them. They also anticipate that the wells over then next year online will average 750 bbls/oil day -- which would be a nice increase from past averages.... and estimate 8-9000 bbls/day by April of next year.
apparently the gas well WF#3 is almost ready to come online as well.
Do you know what Hall said after he was asked a question about how much Miller was producing currently. He stated 5100 boe gross, but 3800 net -- do you know what that means?
The main reason that Miller probably went down since the end of April might have something to do with proven reserves. It seems that proven reserves dropped from around 330 million to 230 million (did I hear that correctly?), and may have had something to do with production drop off, but no one was clear on this issue. Management almost seemed to sidestep this issue. As production dropped for one reason or another -- apparently so did proven reserves is what I imagined happened. Management seemed unprepared about the questions on this issue, and left me wondering why as well. Someone obviously knew, because the stock went down from around 8 to 5 1/2 -- about the same percentage as proven reserves dropped..
They did a good job projecting more wells, but I think their timetables are again a little optimistic for the harsh Alaskan winters.
When Ru9 comes online in the next 2-3 weeks, proven reserves will get a 50 million boost according to what I thought I heard -- but not sure if it was 50 million dollars or bbls/oil
Not one of their best conference calls. I never heard a number of bbls/oil that Sword was not producing currently -- and they seemed to drop the ball answering the calls from the analysts.
keeps buy rating and reiterates $8 target. Thinks that Miller posted solid Q4 results despite weaker than expected oil production. The firm remains encouraged, citing catalysts such as upcoming test rates from Sword, details of extended performance of Wmru-2B well, positive operating cash flows, and additional details on the Savant acquisition.
at least it appears that they have already almost doubled oil production from the close of the fiscal year in April if you include Ru2a at about 600 extra bbls/day , Badami at about 600 bbls/day and Sword producing all three zones -- an extra 5-600(?) bbls/day maybe. If they were bringing in 2300-2400 bbls day at end of fiscal year, they should be up around 4000+ just on oil production alone. It is no wonder that Suntrust upgraded them. If Ru9 comes along 1000+, they will double production again next year with just one or two more wells coming online in the next few months.
Not so sure what the response will be either. Revenue increased year over year from around 34 million to just over 70 million. Not too many companies have doubled revenue in a year. Miller said that it wanted to be a 100 million dollar company, and next year it should have over 100 million in revenue. That makes it a positive estimate for next year provided costs do not increase too much.
Short interest dropped more than 200K shares in the last month ,,,, and yet Verado has claimed to have shorted 250K shares all by himself in the last month (and supposedly shorted those shares for an average price of more than the 6.60 high -- how does he do that?). He is not who he says that he is. He does not have a not short position -- he is just some guy from/in India paid to act like a short -- and not doing a very good job at it either.
Only Miller mentioned they paid for -- a one page ad that basically shows the Osprey platform/rig and has the words -- UNLOCKING ALASKA in bold letters with the following message:
"Miller Energy's revitalization of the Osprey Platform is just one endeavor that has opened the way for production increases. By combining geological expertise, technical experience and sound management, we expect to significantly enhance the value of these assets now and in the future."
Pretty picture - however, I would rather read about another well opening.
SunTrust and analyst Howard Weil both raising price targets on a variety of Energy stocks today -- probably in advance of what should be a good earnings quarter for this sector. May/June/July will be a gigantic number in terms of production for a small company like Miller. We should be receiving news prior to conference call next week.