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Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

chetgillespie 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 20, 2016 10:52 AM Member since: Mar 1, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Look out for the turnaround! - up 33% soon

    by a.dane Apr 6, 2016 1:38 PM
    chetgillespie chetgillespie Apr 20, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Still waiting to get back in. Until NASDAQ hits 5,000+ it seems LABD will continue downward...possibly as low as $30. That said, given that we're seeing the highest median valuation ever, the markets could begin plunging any day, and I could miss the low by a significant amount. Like every extremely overvalued market in history, this one will end badly.

    Every "less than horrible" event the past 7 years has been fuel for a new rally. It's remarkably consistent and predictable. This one is no different and likely won't be the last. The momentum has been with the bulls since Feb 11, mostly because weak shorts have been doing the usual run-for-cover thus unintentionally prolonging this tired bull market amidst a less-than-horrible environment.

    Shorting is a super high risk strategy and really should be reserved for those who have a) lots of cash to withstand a run up b) high EQ and c) tremendous patience. This should eliminate most would-be shorts, but unfortunately with the book/movie The Big Short, many decided they could be a player, too. Most will lose money.

    Speaking from painful, hard-won experience, my advice to most shorts is to get out of the markets altogether and wait until they drop 40-55% and then buy as much of the best companies you can. Good luck to all!

  • CMG will likely drop to $150. When it does, it will be another wonderful buying opportunity. Too bad the current catastrophe didn't coincide with a market crash.

  • chetgillespie by chetgillespie Mar 17, 2016 1:07 PM Flag

    Seems shorts didn't get their "sell on the news" event after Fed announcement and are now throwing in the towel. Exactly what the longs want. I bought some at $55 and may buy more...but not until Nasdaq climbs to 4,900-5,000. This rally still has legs but will change rapidly and abruptly once each and every short has been shaken free of their 'unwavering' conviction. Nowhere does history repeat itself more consistently than the markets.

  • chetgillespie by chetgillespie Mar 17, 2016 12:49 PM Flag

    It seems that LABD is a bellweather for investor sentiment, and though the peak is likely in, we have yet to see real capitulation of LABD. Until that happens, I think the markets will keep moving higher and retest 4,900-5,000.

  • Reply to

    This ride is over

    by rapidadvice Feb 9, 2016 8:58 AM
    chetgillespie chetgillespie Mar 17, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    Prescient call my friend.

  • Everything was copacetic in 2008...until Lehman and Bear Stearns unraveled. Valeant could be the straw that finally breaks this terminator market. Looking forward to seeing how this all unfolds...

  • chetgillespie by chetgillespie Mar 16, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    Too many retail investors expected markets to fall after the Fed announcement, which is why the markets rose today. Still a strong possibility Nasdaq will make a run at 5,000, especially in light of all the 'good' news and the recent bull run since Feb 11 bottom.

    With the April meeting of oil producers looming, RUSS may not move much between now and then. OPEC did lower output not once but twice between Oct and Dec 2008, so they may actually freeze or lower output in April. But given that the markets were in a free fall during that time, it seems unlikely OPEC will take such action here. At least not yet. Besides, they want to kill US oil production, including the fracking industry. Even then, oil prices still dropped after the OPEC announcement since demand was tanking. That said, RUSS could get cheaper from here.

  • chetgillespie by chetgillespie Mar 8, 2016 2:24 PM Flag

    Same FCF to Market Cap as Visa and Verisk, companies whose models are more stable and defensible. Good luck!

  • chetgillespie by chetgillespie Mar 8, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    This is likely the highest you'll see CX for the foreseeable future. Likely to drop to $1 as the 16 year commodities super cycle continues to unwind. Given the company's significance to the country, massive debt notwithstanding, it's unlikely the Mexican gov't would ever let the company go bankrupt.

  • LABD, RUSS, TZA all down significantly on a down day. Looks like the shorts are losing confidence as this short-term bull rally lingers on. Likely will continue at least until next Fed meeting. The coming week(s) will be a marvelous opportunity to reload on short ETFs.

    Market internals are still miserable across the board, including 2/3 of equities trading below their 200 day moving average. This is the single biggest indicator of an oncoming bear market. It's a beautiful time to make money...

  • chetgillespie by chetgillespie Mar 4, 2016 11:38 AM Flag

    Though LABD is down over 50% from its 52 week high, Nasdaq is likely to retest 4,900-5,000, which would cause LABD shorts to capitulate sending the ETF down to around $40 or lower. At that price it will once again be a marvelous buying opportunity. Have your cash ready.

  • chetgillespie by chetgillespie Mar 1, 2016 12:29 PM Flag

    Short term rally + short term positive news on oil + Super Tuesday means RUSS is overly beaten down. Time to reload and sell at $60. That said, it could fall a lot lower but why step over dollars for pennies?

3.30+0.28(+9.27%)4:02 PMEDT