You may be right, but I've been in the payments business for 13 years. Unless Paypal is able to convince its customers to leave their money in their paypal accounts and start doing paypal to paypal transfers, then Visa and MC still trump Paypal because they own the networks that moves the money on the platforms that consumers have demonstrated a preference for. Again, you could be right, and I definitely plan to buy PYPL when the time is right. Time will tell.
CMG will likely drop to $150. When it does, it will be another wonderful buying opportunity. Too bad the current catastrophe didn't coincide with a market crash.
Still waiting to get back in. Until NASDAQ hits 5,000+ it seems LABD will continue downward...possibly as low as $30. That said, given that we're seeing the highest median valuation ever, the markets could begin plunging any day, and I could miss the low by a significant amount. Like every extremely overvalued market in history, this one will end badly.
Every "less than horrible" event the past 7 years has been fuel for a new rally. It's remarkably consistent and predictable. This one is no different and likely won't be the last. The momentum has been with the bulls since Feb 11, mostly because weak shorts have been doing the usual run-for-cover thus unintentionally prolonging this tired bull market amidst a less-than-horrible environment.
Shorting is a super high risk strategy and really should be reserved for those who have a) lots of cash to withstand a run up b) high EQ and c) tremendous patience. This should eliminate most would-be shorts, but unfortunately with the book/movie The Big Short, many decided they could be a player, too. Most will lose money.
Speaking from painful, hard-won experience, my advice to most shorts is to get out of the markets altogether and wait until they drop 40-55% and then buy as much of the best companies you can. Good luck to all!
Short term rally + short term positive news on oil + Super Tuesday means RUSS is overly beaten down. Time to reload and sell at $60. That said, it could fall a lot lower but why step over dollars for pennies?
Superb long term prospects but Paypal is currently way overvalued. Selling at 2x FCF to revenue ratio of Visa and Verisk, which are even better companies. Brand notwithstanding, since it's a newly minted IPO, we can expect to see Paypal drop 75% from its 2015 high.
Everything was copacetic in 2008...until Lehman and Bear Stearns unraveled. Valeant could be the straw that finally breaks this terminator market. Looking forward to seeing how this all unfolds...
Nice work! I sold TZA a little early around $60 and have been waiting to get back in. I saw gold stocks were at all time lows but was too chicken to buy NUGT. When do you think the markets will make their inevitable short-term bounce? And at what price are you hoping to get back into TZA?
Seems shorts didn't get their "sell on the news" event after Fed announcement and are now throwing in the towel. Exactly what the longs want. I bought some at $55 and may buy more...but not until Nasdaq climbs to 4,900-5,000. This rally still has legs but will change rapidly and abruptly once each and every short has been shaken free of their 'unwavering' conviction. Nowhere does history repeat itself more consistently than the markets.
RUSS likely to retest $30 or less
My guess is Nasdaq breaks just below 4,000 and bounces strongly back to just below 4,500 and then continues it's collapse bottoming in October and then begins to rally into elections, holidays and beyond...
It seems that LABD is a bellweather for investor sentiment, and though the peak is likely in, we have yet to see real capitulation of LABD. Until that happens, I think the markets will keep moving higher and retest 4,900-5,000.
For seven years the market slowly melted up, now it's slowly melting down. Wish it would just plunge and get the initial leg down over with already. The more it goes down, the harder to get back into short positions at reasonable prices.
Though we're in a secular bear market, Nasdaq will likely retest 5893, which will crush the shorts as they run for cover!
Too many retail investors expected markets to fall after the Fed announcement, which is why the markets rose today. Still a strong possibility Nasdaq will make a run at 5,000, especially in light of all the 'good' news and the recent bull run since Feb 11 bottom.
With the April meeting of oil producers looming, RUSS may not move much between now and then. OPEC did lower output not once but twice between Oct and Dec 2008, so they may actually freeze or lower output in April. But given that the markets were in a free fall during that time, it seems unlikely OPEC will take such action here. At least not yet. Besides, they want to kill US oil production, including the fracking industry. Even then, oil prices still dropped after the OPEC announcement since demand was tanking. That said, RUSS could get cheaper from here.
Though LABD is down over 50% from its 52 week high, Nasdaq is likely to retest 4,900-5,000, which would cause LABD shorts to capitulate sending the ETF down to around $40 or lower. At that price it will once again be a marvelous buying opportunity. Have your cash ready.