not bashing. just stating the truth. they have low cash for running trials on multiple compounds. too many employees for the amount of compounds in development and sales of inclusig and cash on hand. Nothing is said about that 3rd molecule yet. either it doesn't work, or they're holding back till it's a home run (most likely doesn't work like they want it). No catalyst till 12-18 months away. means dead money.
facts are facts. I wish we were above 20 but that will take years if it gets there before they implode or run out of cash. If they were that good my friend, they'd have been bought out by now. geez, MRK bought some #$%$ #$%$ company for 4B and they had no drugs, no compounds, no nothing. So that leaves ARIA with what???
I told you 5 of the top 20 pharmas gave my company money for shares. up to 500MM for a couple of them. all of them lost the money and shares. sorry, but if inclusig dies and the pipeline dries up, it's game over and we all lose. they aren't stable like amgn, bib, celg, gild etc and can weather a lost drug.
don't be stupid. I haven't shorted once in my life. I'm a daytrader at heart. I have a good deal of money in this but am smart about the prospects of small biotechs. sorry but what I say holds true for a lot of firms. You only need one drug to survive but not one that only sells 13MM a Q. You need a 250-500MM drug to keep going.
you're forgetting. I worked in big pharma and biotechs. I know the business to some degree. I only tell how I feel. I wish they come out with a drug to cure everything and the stock to hit 100 but I'm dreaming.
it wasn't up 4% when I posted. since I have a good deal of money in it, I'm beyond frustrated. I bought way higher. I need a 3x to just get near even.
I'm long and hurting badly. need 20 in one acct and almost 10 in the other. I have a good bit of shares. ARIA has nothing. They don't have a pipeline, small amount of trials that are taking too long to complete, too many employees, and not a lot of cash. Some longs think just because Denner, BK, and some other investor are in ARIA stock, that ARIA is in good shape. I would kill for 20 but doubt it ever comes. they don't have any catalysts for a year and the stock is going nowhere until then. I wouldn't buy this if I didn't have a position in it. Sad but my comments are true. It has done nothing since before the FDA bs and won't for a very long time. Dead money at best.
I don't understand why they have 300 employees with a few molecules in their pipeline. They are way overstaffed. Pretty soon, they'll need to cut by 50%. Only one drug on the market. The others are 3-5 years away at the earliest. The ones not mentioned are beyond 5 years away. If inclusig slowly dies out, 26113 better hit fast or they'll be under 100 employees and under 100MM in cash. They are so far away from another drug on the market it isn't funny.
I think ARIA mgt wants one but has only "talked" about it. They need to come up with it, make it, test it and get it in trials. It has 50 stereocenters, 200 carbons, 25 nitrogens, a few halides, oxygens and hydrogens. It's mol wt is 2250 and isn't stable in dilute HCl, above 35C and in aqueous solutions. It's sure to be a blockbuster.
don't get me wrong either. of the 40 companies, some scientists saw our compounds, data, trials etc. and they ran out saying this isn't going to work and this is wrong with this compound etc.... Lots of them were right. The 5-10 companies/investors who bought in took the hype and swallowed. Now they own worthless shares. So, not everyone is bright and can see through the dog and pony shows. Some do and they run for the hills. What's funny is a lot of people inside know the "real' story and watch the tours and dialog during the tours how some investors just take things as they're truth. At one point, I wanted to tell one guy that he was being "snowed" and to run but I would have been fired if I did. I just let them believe and give us their money. Paid my bills for a few years so what did I care.
no but mgt sold them stock for money. time will tell if they were robbed too.
you overrate DD. In my biotech firm, we had 40 pharma companies come and do DD. We signed 5 of them to deals. We got 4-5 brokerage/investment firms to give us money for stock. The company is almost BK now and less than a buck in trading from 50. Our mgt team told the pharma people and investors how great the pipeline was and how the trials are great and all the data. Then nothing panned out in late phase trials. don't be fooled by denner, bk and sarisa. they can be fooled too.
They have nothing for a buyout yet. Inclusig is a 60MM buck drug at this point. we need some pharma to use it in some trial and help us out. 26113 isn't even in Ph II yet. The mystery drug can be just preclinical on some animal model and you know how that goes. The mgt won't sell below 20 and that's a 4B cost. It's too early yet. In a year or two, maybe. Right now, no freaking way. If I can have my way for 1 hour and be behind a computer and have ARIA trade over 20 during that time, I'd be tickled pink. I worked in a biotech from early hire to destruction. They have too many employees (by at least 50%), not much cash, and a very limited pipeline. Unless they do something fast, they are going down the tubes (with my 150K bucks too).
yeah, wall street listened to the CC too. they are telling what they think with their shares.
so the cumulative amount wasn't recorded yet. will be in a year. geez, that long? and if that was "extra" revenue, why isn't the stock up???
yeah, it won't be for at least a year. dead money till late 2015. unless (and I hope), some pharma tests one of their drugs with inclusig and get snynergy and they buy aria out. Okay, I'm dreaming and will wake up.
and that is why the stock is at 5.25 vs. over 6. They hired the bus dev person to sell junk to pharma. if they had a good drug, the pharma comes to them. they are an ugly company looking for help.