someone dumps and drops it 2-3 bucks and then the buying comes back. If earnings aren't that bad in January, we see the low 40's for sure. then with oil coming back in spring (you know it does), we'll see upper 40's. Wish someone would offer $50 and be done with it.
in 2020 maybe. aria has so many employees but they just can't get drugs found and developed fast enough. They really should only have 150 employees until they get 2-3 on the market. wasting money every day
I reread the clip. they exercised their option so they did buy it. Oh well, I think SDRL rises next year as it's been beaten down. Not sure if it will click 20's but it will go past 15 soon.
did they actually purchase it? seems like it's a future option??? don't they have enough drill ships now?? geez, how can this be positive?? I bought more shares yesterday in the 12's. now it's down 60 cents from there. dammmmm, get over 15 you POS
by then we should have the next molecule news and what it's for. If PC, we're off to the races. We'll break double digits if so easily.
that will send rig to 40, SDRL to 30, DO to 50's, NE to 30's, and other oil stocks up. Go oil.
Algeria calling for OPEC to cut production. they are starting to hurt. I bet in 2015, SDRL clicks 15 in January due to being oversold and oil being cut.
thanks for your advice. I'll sell all my oil stocks Monday now that you've projected the declines in oil. This will save me lots of money. Can't wait for 930am to do the trades now and go short all oil stocks.
their timing sucks. Last time this was 8.75 and buyout chatter abound, they announce the business dev person and we haven't seen that price since last March. This time, they announce the partnership and it's on the day that all bios were down 10%. Go figure. ARIA will announce 5 new molecules and an offer price of $50 and the end of the world will occur that day. Longs will be screwed.
Let's see if this goes through this time. Okay, the positives - we get 77.5MM in cash for operations. Money is good. It gives them more time to fund trials and other compounds. The negative is they gave up revenue to Otsaka (whatever) for the upfront payment. The good is I'm assuming they did DD on inclusig and saw all the data and like it enough to jump on board. Did ARIA show them any other compound/program??? who knows but doubt it. This says that the data and hope for more indications/sales was good during DD that they gave aria money. Also, if things go well with inclusig, they can buyout the firm and might have the upper hand being a partner. Time will tell. All one biotech needs is 250MM in sales to fund/fuel other development and keep going. They didn't give up shares for this partnership (good for longs). The negative is they have to pay for clinical trials for japan but that's what the 77MM is for (at least part of it). Means there wasn't or isn't any offer on the table for the whole company but us longs knew that as they don't have anything worth ponying up 4B for at this point. They need to expand inclusig, get 26113 going, the new molecule and come up with a great #4 compound. This takes time. Might see 20 in 2016 is my guess. If not, then we might be under a few bucks and i's over with. Time will tell.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I hope the news you were referring to isn't the partnership. The street farted on that news.
will someone tell this person that aria won't buy any shares with company money. they need every penny they have for operations. it's not about earnings right now. It's about finding drugs. then come earnings. Remember, they have 300 people working for them. that's huge for this company. My guess is they can do the same with 50% of what they employ now.
they said royalties are 22%??? Normal is 15-20% or so. Not bad. What they need is other indications. If inclusig keeps bringing in money and 26113 gets going, all eyes are on the next big thing. Then they have time for the 4th drug. This won't shoot to 20 overnight. Might take 2-3 years is my guess (unless that next molecule has some trial data and it's huge).
true. we just don't know the sharing split. doubt it's more than 25% for us.