hate to say it but unless the leak is good and the big boys know it, this will start to go down without any news. I need 20. I wish the buyout is between 22 and 25 but I'm hoping too.
My guess is the CEO wants near 50 and he'll get that in his dreams. All things have to do is have that inclusig kill a few more people at the lower dose and this company is over. He'd be smart to take anything north of 20 and get some help from big pharma. Hope his ego doesn't kill us shareholders.
we can only hope. wish it would happen over the weekend. doubt it does if it says "30 days".
I'll bet you that if LLY or anyone signs a partnership, this tanks on the day of the announcement. It's up due to a buyout. They won't get too much for a partnership. maybe a few hundred K. that will last them a year or less with trial costs. big deal.
some of the answers are right here. I got into a mess with GFV's and free riding in my IRAs. you are allowed 3 in one year. on the 3rd one, they shut you down for 90 days and you have to use settled funds. Like the others said, no fine is imposed. anyway, you have to have 25K in a margin account to daytrade. you cannot do that in a cash account no matter how much money you have. Now, if you add funds pretty fast to your cash account to cover the mistake, they won't count that GFV if you do it before the T+3 date. Also, someone said you can buy/sell and then buy under a 90 lockdown. That's not true. if you bought 10K of ARIA and sold it, you can't buy squat until you wait 3 days after the trade day to get those funds settle to trade (buy and/or buy/sell) again. I've been down that road about 3-4 times. just means you can't buy till funds settle. sometimes it works in your favor, sometimes it doesn't. what the others are saying is in a cash account (without being locked down), you can buy and sell 10K worth of ARIA at say 10 and if it drops to 8, you can rebuy it but can't sell those shares till 3 days after the trade day. Now in my IRA, if I have say 100K in ARIA at 20 and free up some money by selling stock in say MRK, I sometimes will buy 100K worth of ARIA again say at 5 and sell immediately if it goes up to say 6 as I have those settled shares at 20 (remember in an IRA, you don't have to report nor worry about wash sales). Then those shares I bought at 5 (remember the FIFO rule - first in first out) are my new "shares at 20". I try not to do this too much cause it gets confusing. Basically, I've traded since 1993. some people are way better than me. I've lost over 1.5MM in day trading. Usually, the stocks I sold for a loss came back in a year or two. Only exception is putting 1.45MM in LU at $60 and selling at $0.50 to take a huge loss. better to buy/hold for a long time (like buying ARIA at 2.50 in Oct and selling now at 10).
in 3 years maybe. if nothing pans out, you'll get 20 bucks for all of your shares not 20 each
if there is a partnership and they pay for the trial, we go back down to $6 in a second. we need a buyout. partnership isn't sheet.
If there isn't a buyout, ARIA won't hit 20 in 2014 or 2015 by themselves. Period
CEO probably wants 50 for his shares/options. Isn't going to go over 25 so he better take what he can get now. if someone comes out with a better drug or this drug they have starts killing everyone, he won't get a buck for the company. I think his ego/price is killing the negotiations.
if it were worth more than 20, it would have happened already at 30. we'll be lucky to get 20-25
these things usually occur over the weekend or holiday weekends. if this doesn't occur by Monday, then the offer is too low and ARIA mgt rejected the offer.
so do I but "we can't always get what we want". I am in at 20. I wish it opens at 25 and I make money but at this point, I'll take my 20 back.
nobody talks. if an insider talked and was discovered, they are gone in most cases. Do I think this is real (yes) but no company will deny or support a rumor. They are working on a deal and don't need wall street to hamper them.
like I said, I worked for biotech startup and they lined their pockets with 100K's of options. They wanted to get rich. But they were trying to run a pharma company and cared more about daily business. So if this is bs, they won't worry or care and will carry on as usual. Only if it's real, will it be verified when the deal is done. Until then, it's just speculation and we longs have to sit back and wait. The thing in longs favor is that this probably leaked and it's at some stage of buyout in progress. Talks can break down. If they finally say LLY offered $20 and we said no, the stock might not even go up on that (it might tank on selling since it fell through). in our case, there might be two behind LLY who's talking. Add PFE and MRK to the list
I worked for large pharma and small biotech (basically pharma want a be). just to do a R&D deal, it took months to talk chemistry/science, have them come and do DD with the trials, chemistry, data, etc.. then they have to decide on a price and conditions. This can take a while so unless the leak is near the end of the discussions, this might not bear fruit for a while.