been there and done that with small biotech. they have 350MM in cash but say 200MM at end of 2013 so let's just say 200MM. they will slow cash burn by not moving, ending a new lease, firing employees (at least 1/3rd of them if not 1/2) and cut or eliminate trials. Then that cash will last into 2015. What we have to hope is that the MRK drug works better and the inclusig works in some other cancer besides the one indication it's in. If so, then we're in the 20-30 range immediately. If not, we're under a buck and it's game over. As for a buyout, the stock was just 20's so forget them selling out at 7-10 (that's just chatter from longs who bought at 2-5 range after the fall from 17). Mgt has loads of options and not sure what price they are at. They get new ones every year so a lot are over 10 bucks. They want a huge payout so they are hoping for 20-30 minimum. That will take time. If the street article is right (that these two drugs are better than what Mr. Market gives them), then they will work in something else and this will go to a new 52 week high. It might take a year for this to play out. That's about it. The other thing they can do is like someone else said (buy a compound out) but if it's good, that takes a few hundred K. If it's unproven, it can be had for 10's of MM's (10 million or so). That's about it in my book. Been in pharma (big for 15 years and biotech for 10). I see nothing else as an option (short of finding a new drug and partnering that out to keep going). The big thing is to cut at least 50% of heads and run smaller trials in PhIIa/b. That saves money. Once they hit something new, big pharma will either partner or buy them out. Been there and done that. Wish I didn't buy at 20 though.
look at the daily and weekly chart. someone pushed mrk up pretty good Friday after 330pm. maybe good news on Monday and we crack 48's.
I wish but not sure if it will. lots of buyout bs from people who bought in the 2's and 3's saying 10 will be the price. The company won't go for that low. They'll wait since they have money for 1.5-2.0 years and hope something else hits. this was just 20's before the FDA bs. The company won't sell out for less than 15 (unless desperate) or over 20 if they think something else in the pipe is worth it. That will take time and they'll wait for the drugs to play out.
man, we went up like nuts at the last few minutes. I bet they know good news on Monday. it was under 46 most of today and it just shot up to 46.50's.
it says filed today. doesn't say what day but has to be after the plunge. Look at FMR and GS and a few others in the top 10 holders. They have way more than 10MM shares. I bet not all of those were bought low under 10.
assumed this was done after the drop from 17????
so at what price did he buy? if it goes to 10, he'll probably bail or does he know something that will propel it higher? thoughts any longs? thanks
this won't go for $10-12. more like over 20. this will take time. these guys won't take 10 unless they really know things can't be fixed and if they can't, the buyer will see that too and won't do the deal.
this was just 23. down due to the FDA bs. nothing has changed except they can't put people on 45 mgs for 2 years. if the drug works in some other cancer and the other drug works, then 7-10 won't be in the cards. more like $25. the company will have a poison pill for a $7 buyout. They will hold on with more lower options and shares and see if they hit something in 2 years and go to $25-30 instead of taking 10. don't be foolish just because you bought at $3 a share.
yeah, they have my old company a strong buy 5 stars. if they knew how hopeless it was there, they'd have zero stars. THey are clueless people.
if this works that well on leukemia, then it might work on a solid tumor too. if so, were off to the races.
the guy who wrote that isn't very credible. he writes about gold all the time. He's not that smart from his calls.
nobody will get a dime from the company. nobody died and the drug was a cancer drug. it had warnings on it. No trial data was fudged etc.. so shareholders can't sue. the lawyers are just being stupid.
they were just 23 a share. doubt it goes at 6.50 for two reasons (nobody will pay 6.50 for this junk and they will want time to give the other trials to pan out). If one of those hits for something else, they'll get $20 in a buyout.
200MM for a company with 300 employees isn't squat. I expect 100-150 heads gone by end of year. maybe 200.
so in roughly 2 hours, you answered your own question and see them cancelled too?? pretty good work I might say. If they do that, the stock goes to 10 cents and it's over.
man, I'd almost like to bet you but there is now way this hits 25 again as it is today. they have to find some other cancer for that drug (solid tumors, breast, pancreatic, other etc..) or another drug (not the lousy mrk drug) for it to hit 25. I don't see double digits ever again. Sorry, but we've been duped.