bad day due to brexit. I thought we'd hit 10 so I bought like nuts at 9. should have waited. The only reason for this going to double digits is a new partnership or buyout. Companies take their time. This can take months to get there. guess big pharma doesn't think ponab and brig is worth much or they'd be offering $20 a share. Sad. But at least they came up with one drug. My old company had 15 in trials and all failed. I was told by some good people that if a company can bring one drug to market, they can survive and bring more. We were worried about a BO and job loss. LOL, we never got past PhIIb and went bust. Mgrs got rich on options that they loaded themselves with. All of our investors (banks, hedge funds etc) lost money in rounds 1 and 2 and 3. They were mad as all get out. they got burned and drank the cool aid my CEO served. Us insiders knew they were giving money into a black hole. Hope ARIA isn't that case.
yeah, 4B in BO for 10X sales of 400MM but not 4B in sales. I'll take 10-15 a share now .
where do you get 4B in sales? inclusig is 200MM at best now (not sure of next year if new indications hit) and brig is how much? some say 200MM market at most and other drugs are already in that. unless someone finds a cocktail with our drugs or we have something we don't know in the pipe, not sure how you get to 4B in sales. if so, we'd been bought out already. think your numbers are off. Please elaborate to how you get 4B. thanks
only until brig is approved and starts making serious cash (more than ponab) will a BO come. What was that company that just got bought out for like 3.5B and all they had was a preclinical compound for either leukima or diabetes that wasn't proven. Nobody wants ARIA in their mix. Plain and simple right now. We have to go the long and snail route to get to 20. That might take 3 years or more.
I'll be dead by then.
they have one compound that makes 170MM and they have to give 50% to some countries for distribution. Then there is brig which I don't know the market for that indication but some say 200MM (unless they are shorts) so this isn't big with others in the mix. Then they pipeline that has zip, zilch, nada. They need 5-10 more compounds before they can go at it alone. I was thinking there are maybe 50 or more companies big enough to swallow ARIA. Not one word of a BO at all. Either I'm missing something (granted I don't know much about the cancer area) or ARIA isn't worth 2B or more on a BO. just because ARIA mgt says they are going after a market or disease, means squat. My old company went after 10 markets, had 2B in seed money from 10 different drug firms and got zero compounds out and went bust. They laid off everyone including me. The only ones who got rich were mgt with options out the wazoo.
can you give a hint? explain why? I wish a BO offer of $15 hit the wires whether mgt wanted to take it or not. We need a pop. I need to move on. tired of having this for almost 3 years now.
I just reread the press release and they say (cut expenses). I looked at yahoo to see how many employees they have. It's listed at 459. When inclusig blew up, ARIA had 330 or so. Now they have nearly 500??? that can't be right. With their drugs and pipeline, 200 is too much. they can do this with 150 at most. No wonder WS doesn't like the numbers. At 459 (assuming 125K at least for each employee, average cost for salary, healthcare etc), that's about 60MM a year. that doesn't count trial costs, chemicals, utilities, overhead, leases etc.....
BO's are tough to keep quiet. with the way the stock acted today, I don't see one for months or a year or more. we dropped on huge volume. With a BO in the works, people know and that usually leaks. the shares usually climb some a few days before on no news or reason and then the BO is announced and you go hmmm. that's why the rise. anyone here with that BO hope, will be disappointed (me included). We don't see 9's to 10's for months.
frock you MS and your downgrade. Geez, where were you at 37 when I bought 5000 shares of this junk???
we weren't the only one hit. ACHN took a dive too. Down 5% or so. JNJ has their big drug in trials and news was supposed to hit Feb-Mar and nothing yet in june. So, these things take time and big pharma will move slow as time is on their side.
here is another thought. if a BO was in the works (usually takes months for DD and negotiating), they wouldn't have scheduled an investors conference. I hear you will say "business as usual" till something is announced but I think we won't see a BO anytime soon. I still can't believe that it hit $9.50 on the news that the CEO would be on CNBC. I was out of the stock then and missed the ride as I sold in the low 8's but that happening wasn't worth 9.50. I was vindicated the next morning (Monday I think) as it hit 9.18 or so and then fell to the upper 8's.
don't think their drugs are worth that much to big pharma. they even say they are going after small, unmet cancer needs. I'm long and wishing double digits but I have a 6 month or longer wait. My shares at $9 are stuck for a long time.