their timing sucks. Last time this was 8.75 and buyout chatter abound, they announce the business dev person and we haven't seen that price since last March. This time, they announce the partnership and it's on the day that all bios were down 10%. Go figure. ARIA will announce 5 new molecules and an offer price of $50 and the end of the world will occur that day. Longs will be screwed.
Let's see if this goes through this time. Okay, the positives - we get 77.5MM in cash for operations. Money is good. It gives them more time to fund trials and other compounds. The negative is they gave up revenue to Otsaka (whatever) for the upfront payment. The good is I'm assuming they did DD on inclusig and saw all the data and like it enough to jump on board. Did ARIA show them any other compound/program??? who knows but doubt it. This says that the data and hope for more indications/sales was good during DD that they gave aria money. Also, if things go well with inclusig, they can buyout the firm and might have the upper hand being a partner. Time will tell. All one biotech needs is 250MM in sales to fund/fuel other development and keep going. They didn't give up shares for this partnership (good for longs). The negative is they have to pay for clinical trials for japan but that's what the 77MM is for (at least part of it). Means there wasn't or isn't any offer on the table for the whole company but us longs knew that as they don't have anything worth ponying up 4B for at this point. They need to expand inclusig, get 26113 going, the new molecule and come up with a great #4 compound. This takes time. Might see 20 in 2016 is my guess. If not, then we might be under a few bucks and i's over with. Time will tell.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I hope the news you were referring to isn't the partnership. The street farted on that news.
will someone tell this person that aria won't buy any shares with company money. they need every penny they have for operations. it's not about earnings right now. It's about finding drugs. then come earnings. Remember, they have 300 people working for them. that's huge for this company. My guess is they can do the same with 50% of what they employ now.
they said royalties are 22%??? Normal is 15-20% or so. Not bad. What they need is other indications. If inclusig keeps bringing in money and 26113 gets going, all eyes are on the next big thing. Then they have time for the 4th drug. This won't shoot to 20 overnight. Might take 2-3 years is my guess (unless that next molecule has some trial data and it's huge).
true. we just don't know the sharing split. doubt it's more than 25% for us.
aria will not buy back shares. they need cash for everything but that. don't be stupid on that accord. They are still a startup firm. Once they get 2-3B in the bank, they can buy back shares. Until then, it's just plain stupid to think they will use money to do that.
I bought some achn yesterday at 16 and it went from 24 in PM to 15's. then in regular market, it hit 14's. then in 20 minutes, it was 16.74. ARIA will bounce back on this news. I mean they get more money, part of the sales and more time to bring things to clinical trials. Let's hope they have inclusig, 226, the new molecule and a lead on the next drug. It takes time to find new compounds these days and for medchem/process to work things out with clinical.
guess cause ACHN is down. not sure of the other bio's yet. this plain sucks. I thought 7.75 for sure.
man, this sucks. shorts in control. we need better news. this just gives them more time to work
was the partner news.
and they paid 3.4B or so for AVNR. they can take us out over 20 easily and become a huge pharma.