Agressive hedgers rounded up the retail short posse and started to knock on bios and tech bios across the board today. Does not matter if good news was posted or not. And today, CYTR posted great news.
The 2B outcomes were astounding: triple dose killed more cancer and did NOT cause a rise in side effects while extending life= end points met. The second eyes "blinded reads" also have a built in measure of security that FDA usually likes.
Not sure what a phase 3 for this would look like nor why one is necessary. Remember this is DOX, FDA knows about DOX. Now they know about ALDO-DOX and if they are NOT blown away by today's results, then they are functionally brain "dead", IMO.- chi
Agree that GBM CR data is the pivot point on ALDO...its actually the model, because if you have shown that ALDO outperforms DOX in every other cancer, if you have tested dosage, and IF other results have compared similarly to GBM on safety aspects, then what else is there to decide?
It works better than DOX, its safer than DOX and it extends life-- how dumb does the FDA have to become to see reality? Not sure on THAT answer...but Kreigs has a wall of data forming up when you consider the wide range in types of cancer being treated with ALDO--- the meta results will astound!!!! Stay tuned, this turns up faster than most can imagine, IMO--chi
There is NO sense to keep testing ALDO when it clearly is outperforming DOX in every comparator...think about it...CYTR figures out a way to dramatically transform a blunt- out of favor(sort of) instrument , DOX, into a leaner - meaner-cleaner-safer cancer killing machine. And FDA wants to test it some more???
Nah, the bet is ALDO for at least on indication is approved much faster than anybody suspects--chi
This stock is in one of those odd symbiotic relationship patterns between Instis/Funds and shorts.
Shorts feed into Insti/Fund position growth for a period of time, until the Kracken get released. When Kreigs can see a nice volume of catalysts lining up over say a 6-12 month period, then I expect to see insiders begin open market buying, a sorta/kinda signal that Instis/Funds will recognize but dull thinking shorts will miss.
The Momentum Player enters changing the entire dynamic: instis onboard, funds onboard, insiders on board, retail on board--shorts- NOT on board. Shorts become early fodder for SP appreciation. As long as the company can continue to churn out positive news and this includes early-to-market plans, manufacturing plans,offshore plans, new LADR conjugates and of course FDA developments-- all go into the machine to push the SP toward reaching its full value.
Hard to say what that is, but plenty of competitors see ALDO as a near and present danger-chi
They have $23M to spend with willing dance partners...should happen soon but guessing with FCEL is futile. And now Gumby with a totally inhuman snide comment ( he gets partially eaten parmesan cheese rinds for his work here)- chi
CYTR over next 2 years is going to be the momentum play of the century as plenty of clinical outcomes will form up like planes off Long Island...and we don't know the NEW LADR conjugates that will taxi on and take off. Plenty of excitement here and the real great news, it will help a ton of people. If Kreigs is as wise as I believe, he will cut a deal for China on Small Cell Lung Clinical success...sure the Chinese WOULD copy it, but if he works with the right firm, THAT firm will police the Chinese market. And lung cancer is very rampant among the many smokers of China, plus ALDO-CHI likely to be priced right for that market's widespread need--chi
Stock actually tracks the prospects of the company thanks to the short attacks--they keep the price from getting ahead of the tech potential. Company is close to profit and will be able to project that when a large MW project closes. Service rev. is forming a nice rev. flow, SOFC is finding new ways to use fuel cells and carbon capture for cleaner coal might be larger than anything because it solves/appeases two huge groups; environs and heritage coal burners. I expect the Feds might even create a bigger sub. as it brings together both parties.
Bottom line, company has walked the tightrope of profitability for over 1.5 years...it needs to close sales and fast. So far, that has been the largest obstacle, failure to close ( note the LI power bid...partially back in play--this would push FCEL into the black,IMO)- chi
Note: grumby is a paid sociopath that sleeps under the bridge at nite...throw him a cheese rind and post something cool about FCEL, he'll instantly start bashing and lying)
gbp- not really, too many nat. gas fired power plants ALSO polluting the air. They need a clean solution too as they will never stop buring nat. gas. FCEL has a stack capture system for that. The power plant owners won't budge without FED tax credits...so nat gas pwr plant stack capture is next. Even the climate change deniers can't refute a tax credit--chi
OMG, this is huge! So many coal states need this yesterday. And if the FED. GOV. extends tax credits, FCEL can spend the next 5 yrs outfitting every coal stack in the USA with its coal exhaust to power system.
This will move thru the market very fast as the total available mkt. is significant. Next, they need to work the system to capture exhaust from GAS fired stacks.
Nice to see and healthy too. Three-fers rule--chi
I sincerely hope a LIGHT goes on inside the BOD. And that I do make a (+) return on my investment. So I carp out loud and will continue to do so until they produce results. Note, the latest QTR results did what for shareholders? Promised them results of break even, next year while claiming it takes 4 to 6 months to produce a sales result for LS...of course, their 4-6 months comes after years of being in the market or preparing to go to market. Zero + perception equity in almost everything they have done to date. Its appalling.
How long is Euro LS ramp taking? La-de-dah does not cut it, IMO- chi
Not short, never was, never will be and I am NOT buying more shares.
J. - short more? Nope. I laughed when the shorts said about 2.5 years ago that NAVB's share of sales will not amount to much. After all, I believed the prior mgt.'s claim that LS was best in category. While I still do, back then I did NOT know how poorly CARD. would perform nor how bad a deal it turned out to be. But hey, just a typical yahoo idiot that bought more shares after viewing the macrophage presentation. The thinking was: LS is a two-fer- a diagnostic AND part A of a variety of therapies. Then the momentum wandered along to where it is today- not much further than it was. Sure you can argue that but its not lighting the world on fire as of yet.
So NO, I don't short stocks but YES I am greatly unhappy at this mgt. and prior mgt. Seems that the BOD was asleep for years in thinking that customers will line up for LS.
And then there is the one foot in - one foot out hokey pokey on Macro--if the BOD had confidence, they should place funding behind it. But so far the BOD that has been wrong more often than right, might be wrong again.
Guess what- yahoo led me to NAVB so its not ALL the crack-pot factory you like to make it out to be while YOU are a yahoo poster. ( kettle-black etc.)- chi
No, I'm talking about a confused, weak BOD and Rick. Company on life support when he arrived last Nov. And it still is. Card. still doing their best, and Macro is wandering along.
They can post $4M/qtr and it is still insanely out of balance/sync with the quality differences and patient benefits that LS provides. How can anyone not see that a wholesale change in thinking has to take place at NAVB. And Rick is not that thinker. How are they going to push Macro thru the market? With partnerships that do what for who? WEAK approach to a blockbuster potential.
And LS-- they're going to talk till they are blue in the face. They need to outflank the old thinking of " hang out ( reappear often) in the lobby long enough and they will buy your product".
Why not sell the entire thing to somebody that can execute on the potential?--chi
Just my opinion, but the sales force factor will take time without the company spending in support of their efforts and this company seems very dim in terms of how it approaches marketing itself. RG talks about Macro being the bright shining light of the future, except the company isn't going to expend money to make it happen. Great opportunity ignored until the right dance partner comes along? BIND is a great start, but who gains the most and who puts forth the most? If neither take the step, it will move slowly.
Look at the tangled mess the BOD made of selecting leaders. The herd wandered for years. Now, after years under their belt with LS product, they are just realizing how to penetrate the hospital market?!?!?!?!?!?! Worse, they have cardinal "helping"?!?!?!
So sales in Q4-15, late in the Q may see a real uptick. Almost any % increase sounds impressive when you are netting $2M a qtr...$5M/qtr is no big deal...so a price increase and an active sales force have to be able to roll up that number. And THAT is NO big deal either. This stock is a like slow moving drive-by root canal.
You have a clear category winner being driven tp mkt. by mgt. that are not on par with your winner-chi
Simply amazingly poor. And I am LONG NAVB and have been.
At 20% Q2Q increases, they'll hit 3M$ by Q2-'16. Sure the sales force went to market in June. Wow, about a year and a half late.
They need to double sales Q2Q. To do that, they need to convince all the decision makers of the significant-differentiating benefits AND their patient beneficial results. This should have been done along time ago.
Look, you can't walk around bragging about superiority while turning in the lowest sales in the category or you have to change your sales approach. D2C is not out of the question, after all, they are the single biggest beneficiary.
I have less than zero confidence in this mgt. team to do anything correctly or with the required speed. BUT, I do believe in the product(s) thus I float in a quandary-chi
wimusk- consider, max dox dosage is much lower than max aldo-dox dosage. NO reason for FDA to NOT approve sooner, to date. Matter of fact, strategic planning by competitors has ALDO in market in '17 at latest.
Also, consider increase in insti holdings...the spray paint can is writing on the wall: GIVE US ALDO TMRO!
But think about the Chinese market, before the stodge-heds at FDA do what is obvious, the Chinese will make an agreement to get ALDO. Lung cancer is incredibly high in China, ALDO is incredibly cheap, by comparison, and can max dose for effect.
I also expect a new add to ALDO soon, with another clinical track rising fast. With all the potential tracks building to a climactic '16, momentum players will begin to look at CYTR as a real play. That's how I see it- chi
Sentiment: Strong Buy
nick- the company has insurance. Did you ALSO read that or did you choose to ignore that...? chi
Seasoned-- one would think that 2 years ago the company would have taken up a program to educate the onco world about the patient benefits of LS...but perhaps a surgeon taking out more nodes feels they are practicing safer on behalf of the patient while perhaps billing MORE for themself?
LS is like a truth serum for significant human benefit yet this company has failed to tell its own story. Worse, they now have an even more complicated story to tell with MacroTherp. and I don't see any skill whatsoever in telling THAT story.
Secondly, once you tell the baseline narrative, how do you change attitudes and behaviour? Its great to tell your story but you have to elevate your story and you have to claim the top spot and do that very scientifically and convincingly...hard to do the second when the first has been so poorly done.
NAVB's sales can only be as powerful as their presentations to medical community and or forms of messaging to the patient population, which needs a say in their own care. I don't see that ever happening. So potential for NAVB: A++, likelihood of experiencing its potential: C-
Can you envision a story in AARP on how patients are having their lymph nodes "stolen" in the name of better cancer care and high service fees while delivering a weaker life, not a stronger one? You can reasonably show an amount of lymph nodes taken out un-necessarily and show what the outcomes for that are: weaker patients, richer surgeons, higher insurance costs.