nick- the company has insurance. Did you ALSO read that or did you choose to ignore that...? chi
Seasoned-- one would think that 2 years ago the company would have taken up a program to educate the onco world about the patient benefits of LS...but perhaps a surgeon taking out more nodes feels they are practicing safer on behalf of the patient while perhaps billing MORE for themself?
LS is like a truth serum for significant human benefit yet this company has failed to tell its own story. Worse, they now have an even more complicated story to tell with MacroTherp. and I don't see any skill whatsoever in telling THAT story.
Secondly, once you tell the baseline narrative, how do you change attitudes and behaviour? Its great to tell your story but you have to elevate your story and you have to claim the top spot and do that very scientifically and convincingly...hard to do the second when the first has been so poorly done.
NAVB's sales can only be as powerful as their presentations to medical community and or forms of messaging to the patient population, which needs a say in their own care. I don't see that ever happening. So potential for NAVB: A++, likelihood of experiencing its potential: C-
Can you envision a story in AARP on how patients are having their lymph nodes "stolen" in the name of better cancer care and high service fees while delivering a weaker life, not a stronger one? You can reasonably show an amount of lymph nodes taken out un-necessarily and show what the outcomes for that are: weaker patients, richer surgeons, higher insurance costs.
Will respond on Thurs. after latest and greatest from THLD...but only a fool would NOT pay attention to a bona-fide competitor. Look at NAVB as they will deliver via a part of their radio tracer, and BIND too--chi
Very exciting prospect as it opens CYTR to many other partnerships/ companies. While acid based release of cancer-killer is not extremely precise, it is FAR more precise than any existing chemo-attacks on the target. However, gene-based attacks have challenges also as your gene disposition today may not be exactly the same tomorrow. So where does that leave an onco specialist in terms of planning the attack on tumor? Almost right where it is today WITH better tuned mix of tools used. And ALDO+LADR'D to other "tools" are right in the mix.
Consider: everybody w/ tumor is susceptible to an acid based release of chemo, but NOT everybody w/ tumor is susceptible to gene based attack on tumor because of variance in genetic disposition. Sure, precision of diagnosis is increasing as well as AFTER TREATMENT MONITORING but a reliable chemo-weapon using acid based release onto target will be around forever. And especially in under-developed nations that will not be able to afford genetic diagnosis to the extent that USA can.
I expect the stock to move out of the summer doldrums for bio and upon first release of data that says: 64% chance of approval is now 91% chance of approval-chi
And a zilch on yahoo said so...? OK then, that's a trusted source, fair and balanced. NOT. Please, grind your ax and fall on it. Kreigs is helping alleviate pain and suffering. Far from sainthood, but not the wicked cur you make him out to be. Oh yeah, you must be a hair stylist-- am I right? - chi
Agree- and NO PR until the patent is in the stable. Maybe a generic PR, we started our first immuno linked R/D program etc. But no names-targets until they are patent protected. Which, IMO, is also a signal to OTHERS--chi
This is larger than chemo, as they are pointing to "immuno" conjugates for the first time that I can recall- chi
Medivation was a powerhouse company that flew through their NDA process in almost record time. So today, the BOD welcomes a nice talent to guide the company thru the FDA process and into the marketplace as fast as possible.
Looking at the short position of 21 days to cover, about next week might be a good to drop the rock on them. maybe wait till just after July 4th? I don't know. But I have a small feeling that a big rock is coming--chi
SHORT SH VOL. DAYS TO COVER
5/15/2015 28,307,953 498,374 56.800622
In terms of trading days, that's almost 3 months to cover. What does this mean? Well, SHORTIE knows an ineptly managed company when he sees one. NAVB is certainly one.
Its been almost 6 months since Macrophage Theraputics appeared. Now, its still using its first presentation and its hard to say anything has advanced.
The new CEO arrived in late fall. And while market share for LS was purely pathetic before his arrival, I will guess not much has changed.
This guys are sound asleep at the wheel while the company hit the ditch, turned over and is on fire.
56 DAYS TO COVER AND NO CHANCE IN HELL FOR A SHORT SQUEEZE IN THE NEXT 2 YEARS.
How does this mgt. team accept a salary-- they ought to be on commission- chi
So right now, LS addresses a TAM of say 500,000 uses/yr/USA. At 25% market share ( pathetic #) that would generate 125,000 uses of LS/yr/USA...at 1/2 of $380 ASP net to NAVB, that = 190$ X 125,000, about $23M/yr/USA...we will NOT come close to that this year. And that is pathetic. To use a golf equipment analogy: lions share of market is using a wooden driver, our share is using titanium and NAVB is losing!
How long did the BOD of this company sit on their thumbs and think, "all is well" or "our share will grow" or " best radiotracer at the lowest market share %"-- bazing, the last one should have occured to them over a year ago. Graph it, let that graph speak to you and damit make changes sooner than later.
So now, this same BOD is going to take MacroPh thru the clinical process? Man, just on the BOD's capabilities we lose. This company needs to be shaken, not stirred!- chi
Disclosure: I own plenty and I want performance, not asleep at the wheel BOD.
If Kreigs wasn't going to NYC tmro, then I would say: tmro is a non-event. But Kreigs is going and I expect a NEW presentation.
ASCO this year was all about stimulating the immune system to attack cancer. All the news releases pushed that aspect. They failed to state that a : genetic panel is required to see if XYZ's type of immune stimulation will work on YOUR cancer. I think this will be a great second punch at cancer. Meanwhile, radiation-surgery and chemo will NOT go away.
So ALDO is a much more powerful cancer killing tool than DOX and the FDA will be petitioned sooner than later. Hard to guess how much time AFTER the first phase 3 is finished, but you can count on that.
CYTR is about to enter into a phase where news flow rapidly increases based on: new subs added to ALDO, new results from a matrix of rapidly progressing clinicals, new partners will appear and new distribution agreements will form up.
Kreigs knows summer is a bad time for bio-techs. Prepare accordingly- chi
- ALDO is a precision instrument for killing cancer.
- ALDO represents the first of SmartPackages to be delivered onto Cancer
- ALDO removes much of heart damage that makes DOX so undesirable.
-ALDO merits very quick approval ( fast track candidate of the year?)
-ALDO in on the competitive grid of many OTHER cancer killing companies right now!
Kreigs knows all of this and so much more. So ASCO cements it all together and allows for informal courting to begin. Kreigs also knows how to hasten this, say by awarding marketing-distribution rights in another country ASAP. For instance, China has a very high rate of lung cancer with very dim prospects for mass cure...so a logical step would be to gain an income stream in a market dying for ALDO. This little event begins to speed up the music in the courting process. I cannot say this is "at hand" but the musicians are moving toward the stage-chi
The evidence mounts. And it is compelling. Why should the FDA let anyone use DOX when ALDO is safer and more efficient?
I think that compassionate use is a min. ( certainly allowed right now-- keep dosing). Today's PR is a resounding endoursement for the PLATFORM. Consider: old drug with problems finds new life/better results when carried by ALDO.
Longs know what is coming and hopefully sooner than later- chi
and like me, Kreigs dislikes shorts abusing the stock of a company that is trying to help the world.
Shorts think they are safe until next week...sure shortie is safe for today. And today is just about over--chi
It is a starting spot/gathering/ exchange of interest event that LEADS to possible deal making.
At this point in their solid-consistent clinical progression, its fairly safe to say ALDO-DOX is a hit, it works, its new tech. delivering a known cancer killing substance. BUT, there is interest in what else can be packaged into the "box" , the ALDO part for delivery. So really CYTR is going to meet alot of interested folks this weekend.
I have a feeling that they have set forth certain conditions and are about to move very quickly with A partnership or TWO that entail the use of NEW cancer killing subs. coupled to ALDO. Its never been a better time than right now--chi
quants---well its about a year and a half late. Like everything with this company. They need real mgt. that executes and stops spinning in circles. Why bother with Cardinal- end their agreement ASAP. Sell LS and retain usage rights for MANO. Focus on MANO. To tout a 26% change to $2.1M...well, he can do that for the next 2 years every QTR. and it will amount to a mound of beans.
The company needs shaking...dramatic shaking. MANO is an opportunity. I think. But knowing NAVB, I can't even say that for sure. IF it was the opportunity I thought it was back in Dec., it is missing confirmation by other investors or partners or co-developers.
I think LS was an amazing invention that sunk to the bottom of the lake and bounced off the bottom with the reveal of MANO...but now it seems, slow to go mgt. is killing that opportunity also. Its LS II the sequel...same story.
Why keep a losing distributor? Now, the answer is a slow moving sales roll out. The start up curve to that will be the story the next 4qtrs and sure, LS will be knocking down $4M/qtr. and not making much difference after expenses for said sales efforts. We can write the excuse line for the Q1-16 CC right now- it takes time to build relationships, it takes money to support the effort etc etc. Meanwhile, MANO will have died on the vine.
I realize its hard to say: LS was not the knight in shining armor when used in the operating room...but it can be THAT knight if we hurry and use it for its best purpose, killing cancer. The total available market for that effort is worthy of the risk. This is quickly apparent--chi
15% interest ??? That's about $7M/yr. LS generates about that much in profit. They could have/should have changed distributor and looked for reasonable financing. Further, MANO is rolling out like molasses inJanuary. Snails pace. Things don't look all that bright. Not sure what their logic was to develop a breakthrough product and let it sit there and do little to nothing. This company needs a mgt. transplant. They should sell LS and retain usage rights for MANO--chi