Standard & Poors has a 12-month target price of $13. That's not for year's end, but for a year from now, but if it's a progressive rise to that level, something north of $12 by year's end would be expected. I still think it's all about dividend and yield. In today's income-driven investment climate, it takes a 3-3.5% yield to qualify. Long way to go.
No, used to raise chickens, and got the nickname at work when somebody said "Go ask the chickenguy." I agree that the otc product values can be accurately determined. But that's not where the assets growth is occurring, because they aren't increasing in value. The growth in assets, and resultant growth in stockholder equity, is from either the pipeline portfolio or increased real property. I'll take a look at CALM, but am primarily an income investor - getting too old to keep a close eye on gyrating stock prices.
I agree with your conclusions, but I wouldn't have chosen stockholder equity as the metric to justify the analysis. In the assets - debits calculation, for a pharma company the debits are pretty clear, the money owed on borrowings. But pharma assets are much more complex to assign value. Apart from physical assets - land, buildings, equipment - the calculation requires assigning a dollar value to such things as patents, drugs in the market, compounds in development, maybe even "good will," whatever that means, and this calculation is based on numerous assumptions. In the case of JNJ, the rise in stockholder equity over the past several years has been entirely on the asset side, with debits staying constant or falling a little. So, while I'm sure the calculations are made according to the best accounting standards of conduct, it's not a metric that I find particularly compelling.
Time will tell, and one of us can tell the other "I told you so." I've held JNJ through all three down markets, plan to hold through the next. It's income stream is almost unshakeable, even if the stock price isn't. Guess your troll has decided to add me to his hobby list.
I'm struck by the 7-year periodicity: 2000, 2007, 2014. And I'm struck by the very rapid rate of rise to peak for all three. Any setback in the economy leading to even modest earnings reductions will create the same extreme valuations in today's market that were typical in 2000. I think it's a period of "irrational exuberance" that has lots of money chasing stocks at historic highs. It will fall, this year, next, the one after - and it will fall hard. Why do you always get 6 thumbs down even on pointless posts?
Wow, 15 thumbs down and not one has anything to say. Guess you hit a couple of nerves by pointing out the obvious. Can't see anything in your post that anybody could disagree with, so it just must be a combination of jealousy and stupidity. Congratulations on sticking to a good strategy for building wealth. I've held JNJ for many years, never considered selling a share, won't ever consider selling a share, and the dividends cover most of our health care costs. Our XOM shares cover our gas and oil, and an array of pale-blue utilities cover the electric bill. T for the phone and so forth. It's all about dividends in my portfolio.
I can't find any correlation between TNX and RF. Pulling up the Yahoo 5-year graph of TNX and comparing with RF, since late 2011 the TNX has been almost flat, but RF has risen steadily and strongly. Looking at them longer term, there is no correlation whatsoever. There is no statistical basis for your argument.
The market is waiting for PFE to figure out its next move in the acquisitions area. PFE has to make a major acquisition in order to grow earnings long term. If too many of the possible candidates get taken over, PFE will have no alternative except to spin itself off into three or four companies. Acquisition or spin-off, got to go one way or the other, can't just keep on doing what it's doing.
Sounds to me like you should buy something else. Way too many red flags for you to be comfortable owning RF. You should definitely buy something that has outperformed the S&P and the S&P Bank Index. Great place to start.
Thanks for the additional information. Sounds like they did exactly what they said they would do. I don't see "fluff" and I don't see "juice." What's your position on the stock? Long, short, thinking of buying or selling? I gather that you are concerned about the future of RF. What action are you taking based on that concern?
From the news of the day: "not for release, publication or distribution, in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, in, into or from any jurisdiction where to do so would constitute a violation of the relevant laws or regulations of such jurisdiction." certainly got my attention.
In the past 30 days, PFE price has risen a paltry 0.3%, while the S&P500 has risen 3.7%. On whatever it is you think you mean by fundamentals, PFE is going to be a stagnant non-performer, attracting only those seeking a good dividend. Long term, the ONLY way for PFE to grow value is through an acquisition, a large, significant acquisition. The alternative is to break the company into 3 or 4 parts. You really don't understand what's going on in the big pharma sector.
And I also have been building a position in NUV, a closed-end municipal bond fund, yielding 4.7% federal tax free. It's a bit volatile, but my intention is to hold forever, and it has a track record that makes that look like a reasonable thing to do. For your taxable account, of course. I turned over the management of my IRA to a group recommended by my Fidelity adviser, to create a 100% bond account. They've taken six months to invest 40% of the balance, charge me 0.5% annually (less than most mutual funds), and with their charges and the MRDs, so far it's maintaining its value nicely.
The board could be worse. I also have GE, and I was wondering what that board had to say about the Alstrom deal. NOTHING on the board except political insults, tea-bag attacks on all things not far right, liberals responding with attacks on Bush administration. Total loss, not a single relevant comment. I'd hate to try to IGNORE my way through that bunch. I'm also shooting for an overall 3% yield, just added T to the mix.
I'll probably regret asking, but could you tell us how a stock split would make a buyout easier? That's easily the silliest claim in recent board history.
Take a look at the DOW chart on the MAX years setting. Three distinct peaks, in 2000, 2007, and 2014, right now. The 2000 and 2007 peaks were followed 2-3 years later by severe lows. Is there any reason to think that the current peak will not be followed by a DOW 12,000 sometime around 2016-2017? For me, the only questions are when it will occur and how I should plan to deal with it. In the last two occurrences, I held and waited - income was hurt in the second, not the first, and income is my goal. I have a cash pile large enough to sustain us for several years - earning 0.85% at ALLY bank, thank you very much, pays our HOA dues each month. So, I guess I'll follow past experience and hold through it, when it comes. Any thoughts? And, please, if you just want to make fun of the post, find something more original to call me than "Chicken-little." Heard that one before - many times. GLTA, chickenguy.
He's right, the market is going to fall. But for income investors like me, the sell and get out advice may not be the best choice. If you look at the DOW chart, on MAX years, you see three distinct peaks, in 2000, 2007, and now in 2014. The 2000 and 2007 peaks were followed by severe lows 2-3 years later. Unless you are an incurable optimist - not the best mind-set for an investor - you would anticipate seeing the DOW around 12,000 by 2016-2017. And, you would decide now how to deal with that. There are several strategies, depending on your age, financial goals, financial situation - no one size fits all solution. So, yes, the market IS going to fall - it has always done so at some point - and it will do so again. Deal with it. And please find something more original than "Chicken little" to use in responding. GLTA, chickenguy.
I'd like to note that you're very mistaken. If you search for "dividend champions" you'll find a list of over 100 stocks that have increased dividends annually for at least 25 years. JNJ is one of them, but it doesn't stand out. MMM, XOM, MCD, there are literally hundreds of stocks that would have performed just as well or better. That's in terms of every metric, from yield to dividend growth rate. I'm happy to have JNJ in my portfolio, but it's certainly not one of a kind. It's middle of the pack in my little collection.
Each time I open the RF board, I watch the IGNORED posters pop up, then fade away. I've been so efficient and persistent, presently there are only three posts on my version of the board, two of yours and one from fsbsgillie. There used to be a good group posting here, a pleasant place to visit. Maybe the three of us should buy a virtual bottle of good whiskey, to be virtually drunk by the last man standing. Wow, I'm definitely spending too much time on the internet.