Worked for GSK, went through two takeovers, one each way. There are no true mergers in today's financial world. One wins, the other loses. You buy it, then you break it. GSK would be broken up, PFE would keep the high yielding products. The only things PFE is looking for are sales and short-term profits.
I don't see fauxmba's posts, got him on IGNORE, but I see you've been trying to explain why you don't sell your RF position. Don't know if you really want to try and educate him, but in my case it's simple. My cost basis is so low that if I sell the capital gains tax takes 15% of almost the entire position. In addition, with the new $250,000 rule, because my position is a large one, the NIIT will take another 3.8%. Adds up to an almost 20% loss. As an income investor, given that RF is yielding about 2%, and will likely be at 3% in a year or two, I would have to reinvest in stocks yielding 3.75%, just to hold income constant, and that would mean almost 10% of my portfolio at that level. That's too rich for me, at my age.
The sharp rise just after 2 p.m. was response to Fed announcement that it will keep interest rates low, continue support for recovery. If you go to the 1-day chart for RF and COMPARE with BAC, BBT and STI, and any other regional bank, you'll see that they all did qualitatively the same thing. A quick pop up, quick pop down, flattened out with a modest increase. Banking fundamentals have not changed, in particular RF fundamentals have not changed. The Fed will not keep this up forever, and when the hammer finally drops, so will the price of RF and all the other banks that are propped up by Fed policy. RF is still a $10.25 bank stock at best, a $9 stock if the rates are raised sharply.
The action today sent a clear picture of how RF is perceived in the market. It's just a tad over-priced. On a day when overall volume was right on average, and the overall movement was way over on the upside - RF was down, not participating, on average volume. It's fully valued at around $10.10, and it's going to be bounce around that value until there's a strong change in fundamentals. Could take a couple of years. My cost basis is so low I don't care, let the kids inherit it and they can decide what to do with it.
I took some of the RF money off the table about 5 months ago at $11.25. Moved into NUV, good tax-free yield, well managed fund. Looking at the 2-year RF chart, it's clear to me that it's reached a plateau price. It's going to stay around $10.25 until something major happens. There's just no reason to buy it, and the yield is just high enough that I have no reason to sell more. There are lots of more attractive investments out there.
According to The Street: "NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Regions Financial (RF_) were up 2.21% to $10.17 in afternoon trading Wednesday after the bank introduced a new program to help first time home buyers." Wow. What a concept. A bank, which makes money by lending money, starts a program to make it easier for people to borrow money from it. It actually encourages customers to use its services. And its shares pop up 2.5%. Kind of makes me wonder why they waited so long to actually conduct business.
My goodness, now one of your other personalities is posting on the board. I'm glad you - all of those yous jumping around in your head - have found such an effective way to address your problem. Posting on the RF message board will certainly get the attention of those in power in Alabama - the internet does work there, right? And logically crafted, calmly understated arguments such as you present will certainly carry great weight. Keep up the good work, you've found the perfect place to bring about change in the governance of a southern state. Now take your meds and get some rest. You have a big day ahead tomorrow.
And by the way, just for the record, this is the Regions Financial board, not the State of Alabama board or the BCBSAL board. Maybe you can find a blog site for your anti-BCBS rants.
Sounds like BCBSAL cut off your supply of whatever mood-calming medication you were on. And just so you'll know, "whom" is used as the object of a verb or preposition, when you need a subject for your rants, the correct word is "who." As in "WHO pays the least taxes" and "WHO is the most powerful." Try that and see if it makes you sound a bit less loony. Oh, and I don't know the answers to your questions. Were you, by any chance, fired by BCBSAL for a drugs-related problem?
Seems like punishment would have to be for going through with inversion. Going through with inversion means company is no longer a US-based company. US government would have a problem punishing a non-US company, with no jurisdiction. An old cartoon that used to hang in my office said: "Floggings will continue until morale improves." Seems like reducing US corporate tax rates - especially on earnings from outside the US - would be a better approach to stemming the inversion movement, rather than punitive measures passed by bloviating politicians.
Analysts? No, I certainly don't trust professional analysts. I make ALL my investment decisions based on advice posted on message boards by shorts and pumpers. Look, I'm happy that you're happy, so just keep on with whatever it is you're trying to do. I'm putting you on IGNORE now, so you won't get any more responses from me. Good luck with GSK.
Is your Strong Buy sentiment for JNJ or for GSK? Do you know what board you're posting on? I'm glad you found a GSK booster rave to cut and paste, but of the six analysts I follow, five have GSK as a HOLD. Don't know who you think are shorts in this thread, but you'd have to be a fool to short GSK at its current level. And while I'm overjoyed that you've found a stock to love, I'm still going to keep my JNJ for another couple of decades.
How short are you? Maybe you and our resident mba should have a debate - in my IGNORE box. Short seller versus buying opportunity pumper. Fascinating stuff.
If you're investing for long term income, not a bad choice. But, GSK earnings are forecast to decline or remain flat for several years. And the dividend payout ratio has risen sharply to 86%, which makes it unlikely that there will be any significant increases in the dividend for coming years. There's a chance for a takeover by PFE, so you might have a chance for a premium bonus. I worked at GSK for years, never wanted to own the stock, cashed in options the day they vested. Good luck with your switch, but as a very long term investor, I would much rather hold JNJ than GSK.
And I just realized my math error. That's a 50% increase you're predicting - in a few months. And of course, along with it, a 50% increase in the P/E, from an already borderline high of 20 to a ridiculously high level of 30. Despite the math error, it still took 12 years to get from $50 to $75 after the last split, which is a 4% annual price increase. About what you can expect from a major pharma.
That's just silly wishful thinking. After the 2001 split from $110 to $55, it took 12 YEARS for the stock price to increase by 25%. You're predicting it will do that in a few months? Put me on the side of the doubters.
If you don't believe what I've been posting, read what Motley Fool has to say about the five key quotes in the conference call. Either a major acquisition or company breakup. Got to happen.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but there seems to be a lot of misunderstanding in some of the posts. KMI is NOT a limited partnership, and was NEVER a limited partnership. KMI pays out dividends, not distributions. There is no problem with holding KMI in an IRA. If you hold it outside an IRA, when you sell it there is no complex tax form to fill out - you just report a capital gain or loss based on purchase and sale prices. The limited partnerships that were part of the KMI operation, and which could be held separately from KMI, will cease to exist. KMI will operate as a standard corporation, continuing to pay dividends, at a very nice rate. Am I wrong about any of this?
When PFE management starts listening to all the geniuses posting on this board and doing everything they suggest - guarantee that will do it. Heck, maybe PFE should just let the Yahoo message board posters run the company. We obviously know much more about how to run a major pharma than they do.