I was reading the release. Looking at the fact that they are so excited about a sales increase for the first time since 2008. I'd like to know how much the menu prices have been raised on a percentage basis. While it's good to have sales increases, it's not really exciting if the customer counts are still trending downward. I'd like to hear an analyst talk about customer traffic comparisons on a YOY basis.
Also, pasted below is from the release about next year's remodel estimates:
"Contemplated in this amount is $13 million for 56 total remodels, including approximately $10 million for 44 restaurants in the Detroit and Toledo markets".
According www.bobevans.com , there are 11 locations in Toledo market and 12 in Detroit market. A total of 23. Where do you suppose the other 21 locations are hiding?
What a thoughtful and well-crafted response! Touché!, my good friend. It's obvious my simple intellect is no match for yours!
I don't usually post here, but as a long-time fan and former stockholder of this company, it truly saddens me to see BOBE moving in the direction it's headed these past few years. It may just be my own bad luck that every visit to BOBE I've had these past 6 months have been less than "stellar". I could be the only person this happens to.
I don't blame the long-term employees, or even the few long-term executives who have thus far survived what another poster refers to as the "YUM Infusion"
Maybe this new leadership's vision to move BOBE forward is just something that an "idiot" like me just can't yet comprehend.
All I can judge their success on will be their growth in sales, customer counts and profits.
Short term, I have no doubt their profits will increase as long as they keep cutting back on staffing, pay, benefits, food quality, etc. Long term, I just don't see how doing that will help them to increase Sales and Customer Counts.
If I’ve offended you because you or your loved ones work for BOBE, forgive me. There are many very good people working there. I’m rooting for them to again become the dominant force that they once were in the industry. I truly am.
I see nothing good happening with this chain these days. It's sad. At one time, there was no other chain who could challenge BOBE's dominance. They were just too good. Their once loyal and talented staff of 60,000 employees and managers was unbeatable, too. Many of those people still work for BOBE, but the new leadership at the top has taken away the funding and the tools they need to do their jobs well.
I've posted a few messages questioning how BOBE could reach their earnings guidance of 108 to 112 million by generating nearly 50 million of it during this Q4. Again, if my math is wrong, let me know. Maybe by bringing in their 3rd CFO in 1 year's time will help.
My recent visits (last 6 months) to the restaurants in Central Ohio have demonstrated to me how they plan to hit their aggressive numbers. Cut back on everything! My visits have allowed me to experience short-staffing with long waits, cold food, and poor service from the over-burdened cook and wait staff. Food that was once delivered hot and fresh is now pre-cooked, cold, and dry. Even their namesake sausage!
In the 80's and 90's and most of the 00's, there was no competition in Central Ohio for this leader in the full-service family dining segment. Many tried to get a piece of the pie here, but Bob Evans was just too good. No one could compete with the quality and service levels that BOBE consistently delivered every day.
I visited a Frisch's this week. Never gave them a thought in year's past. And guess what? Hot food delivered quickly and by a friendly server who was very attentive. The quality was outstanding, and price was well below what you pay for a comparable meal in a Bob Evans these days. I've recently had the same great experiences at IHOP and Cracker Barrel, too. I don't get great, or even good experiences from Bob Evans any more.
If I was a competitor of Bob Evans, I'd start focusing on Central Ohio again. A vacuum is forming here while the new leadership tries to turn it into a mediocre YUM concept. If any chain out there can come in to Central Ohio, and do what Bob Evans used to do (High Quality and Outstanding Service), they will undoubtedly have success.
I don't own BOBE stock. If they in fact make their aggressive numbers I would think about it. But seeing them sacrifice their once-dominant standards in order to make up lost profits from shrinking sales and customer traffic, makes me think I should stay away.
A stated in earlier posts, I am not an owner of this stock. I have concerns about the aggressive forecasts they have for attaining their 108 to 112 million dollars for the year. Especially since they need to have their largest Q these last 3 months. If they pull it out, I will be an owner.
I had dinner in a BOBE last night, and I was able to determine why they are so excited about the increase in their carry-out business. They have obviously focused on building carry-out business, but I'm afraid it been at the cost of their sit-down business.
No greeter at the door. They were helping a customer with their carry-out order and another was one was on the phone taking an order. Meantime, 8 people were waiting for a table while no employees or manager would make eye contact with them.
We sat at the counter after waiting too long to be greeted. My meal took 20 minutes, my wife's took 30 minutes. After seeing my food sit in the window for more than 5 minutes, I asked if I could begin eating it before it dried out any more. I was nearly done with mine when my wife was served.
It looks like BOBE is trying to hit the big Q4 by reducing labor costs. The location was short-staffed and servers couldn't handle the load. Dining room customers were bumping into me while coming up to the service area to ask a waitress for more cream, drink refills, or "How much longer for my food?" All the while, the manager and other servers were handling carry-out.
The cooks are so overwhelmed with the business that is being called in over the phone, they can no longer provide any speed of service to those customers who take the time to walk in and sit down for a nice meal.
When I went to pay, none of the people handling carry-out would make eye contact with me. The same person bagging the orders is also the cashier, so I had to wait to get out of there. I had to loudly ask if there was anyone who could take my money so I could leave.
So yes, I'm sure BOBE likes to hang their hats on the positive moves in carry-out business as a percentage of total sales. If what I experienced last night is any indication, I can envision carry-out becoming an even larger part of their business, because they are forsaking their dine-in customers. As they continue to lower the expectations of dine-in customers, and the dine-in customer traffic and sales wane, the carry-out sales as a percentage of the total business will grow. But with the model I saw last night, I don't see how overall customer traffic and sales could possibly increase.
I wish I could understand these financials better. I am not an accountant.
Looking at the first 3 Q's of the year, it looks like they have generated Operating Income in the range of 60 million-plus.
They say they will still hit 108 to 112 million by year's end. Which means they need to achieve 40 to 50 million dollars in the 4th and final Q.
If that's true, it means the Operating Income generated in Q4 is equal to between 60% and 80% of the total Operating Income they generated in the first three quarters combined.
I am not an owner, but I would say I would need to load up the truck if they can truly hit that mark in the last 3 months.
If anyone can shed some light on my faulty math, please help me understand.
Earnings will be coming out next week. I am not a buyer or seller of this company, but I have been watching it.
One thing that concerns me is that BOBE had two relatively young CFO's (who had been with the company a long time) announce early retirement within months of each other in 2010. Personally, I'm not real comfortable putting monies into a company who is going on to their third CFO in a year.
I'll just keep watching for now.
Be patient. This is traditionally a slow time for RCKY. Most of their income traditionally occurs in Q3 and Q4. The CC discussed some high level meetings with Wal Mart this week in LV at shoe convention. Som bids out there for more military shoes they are waiting to hear about.
This is a small cap stock. Some MM's will see it on the radar screen and start buying soon, I believe.
Great quarter. Conservative outlook. Got the sense that they'd rather underpromise and overdeliver with outlook for final two quarters.
Sales was slight below estimates only because orders requested for fall goods coming in a little later this year. Also they are shipping goods from PR instead of China, so that reduces the lead time to only 2 weeks from 5 weeks.
EJ SSS are up 6% across the board. RCKY western, fashion, and women's lines all up year over year.
Still a little cleanup in Q3 with severence and relocations from EJ, but will have marginal impact.
I'm adding to my position again today.
When you figure that no one was out eating on September 11 and 12, I'd say that shows absolute real growth.
Watch for October's numbers. I'm betting they are strong. This company has always grown the most during recessionary times.
I haven't sold any stocks since the attack. But I bought more BOBE in the low 17's.
Hang in there.
9:00 a.m. can't be too early for the chicken!
No one's ever up before the chickens. In fact, the chickens are always awakened by a loud, obnoxious male called..........a rooster .
Anyone on this board that fits that description?
I know..... don't say it....., I'll shove my 10 shares too.
As soon as I can dust off my dictionary and figure out what luccalleli said, I might have a snappy comeback.
In the mean time, I'll lighten up. That much I understood.
I don't want to get in to a battle of wits when I'm so obviously under-armed.
No, I was able to buy some shares in the high 13's, low 14's as well.
What I really wish is that I would have bought BOBE back in the 70's as you did.
I didn't start accumulating mine until 1983. This means that mine has only grown a fraction of what yours has.
Most people that bought back then have made a fortune in BOBE. Very few of them have been as vocal about it's recent underperformance as you have.
No wonder Airwolf has been so negative. It appears he started buying it 2 years ago when it hit it's high.
My thousands of reasons for being POSITIVE are because I bought later, at a much lower price.
I guess it's all relative.
I'm watching, Prime.
Us "insiders" (anyone with a positive comment) got to lay low. We're trying to avoid the Chicken's wrath.
Remember, he's trying to get Ariel and the institutions to lean on the BOD. They need to "shake things up!"
Unfortunately, the only thing shaking UP is the stock price.
I'm sure he's divested himself of this stock by now.After all, the"drive-the-price-up-before-the-shareholder-meeting-conspiracy" is out of the bag now.
This inflated stock price must be driving him nuts.
I'm not that smart.
How does the BOD manipulate this stock?
I look at the daily historical quotes and we've probably not averaged more that 70,000 shares a day.
Can the BOD really do that on such low volume?
Seems to me the price is up because there's more buyers than sellers.
If you guys believe otherwise, I'd say you should probably sell while the price is up. Seize the Day!
If I was giving raises for share price, I guess the execs would deserve about an 50% increase over the past few years.I loaded up at $13 and $14 in '99-2000.
P.S. Yea Chicken, I said something positive. Guess that makes me an insider.
I figured if I wanted to force this issue up someone's a**, I could. But when I see that my former HCDC shares are the only positive thing I have in my portfolio, I fgure I probably should just hang on.
BTW, my broker that gave me this information is E*Trade. So you all may want to keep this in mind when searching for replacement brokers.
If they can't sell converted shares for you until a day or 2 after the merge, find a broker that can.
I've owned HCDC for about 3 years. The merger was very good for those of us that bought HCDC in the 5's and 6's and watched the stock languish in the low 1's for a while.
I held it to see what would happen after the official merge date.
Yesterday, when we were near the high, I signed on to my account to trade my converted XCAR and found that I couldn't because my broker hadn't recieved what it needed (converted shares?). So yesterday, I could not trade HCDC or XCAR. I was forced to hold and watch the XCAR runup.
If there were others like me, then today was a lot of HCDC owners selling what they could not trade yesterday. Some, still at a loss.
Now that they have been flushed out.(I'm still holding) We may see some more upside.
I think while the company is predictably buying all this stock to unreasonably inflate the price, you should take the opportunity to SELL.
Save yourself the pain and agony of the same old posts. This puupy is dragging you down. You know the share price will just go down after the shareholder meeting. And it won't go up again until next year's.
I'm sure I'm not alone when I say CHICKEMMEN should get out before the shareholder meeting! The stock will only go down from there.
There's a ton of restaurant stocks out there that I'm sure are doing way better than this one. Follow them.
I own a lot more than 1000 shares and just voted
them all with the board of directors.
more than 30% this year.
I don't know what that
Chicken guy is always bitchin' about, but as far as I'm
concerned, this company is run by a bunch of godda**
Am I an insider? I'm sure some will say I am. Am I
happy with my gains this year?
Trader 8 is right. Buy low. Sell high.