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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

china_s2 44 posts  |  Last Activity: May 26, 2016 5:00 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2007
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  • china_s2 china_s2 May 26, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    Judging from what I see in the respective 10-Qs, gas sales actually went up in fiscal 3Q '16 (that just reported) as compared with fiscal 2Q '16. Dollar-denominated revenues, on the other hand, were lower between the consecutive quarters, which appear to me to be entirely due to unfavorable movement in the ForEx rate.

    Both were minor differences; 48,310,46 m^3 (3q) vs. 46,832,764 m^3 (2Q), and $$4,516,107.00 (3Q) vs. $4,520,206.00 (2Q).

    That said, CETC is a radically changed company from that which attracted my attention back in September 2014, and, had I invested then, I'd certainly be questioning whether the reasons for investing at that time remained valid today. It seems to me that they're essentially starting over from scratch; no in-situ gasification prospects, no coke or coke chemical sales, no coal mines, etc..

  • Reply to

    10 FireBrick Forge featuring MagneGas2

    by switchcrete May 22, 2016 9:17 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 May 25, 2016 9:17 AM Flag

    switchcrete;

    That can of Dutch Boy was produced ca. 1958-1962. I'm still using it, so I can attest that the stuff lasts forever, so long as you keep it sealed and reasonably cool. (I have another can unopened in the shop; still "sloshes", so I'm assuming it's good, as well.)

    One thing I will note-linseed oil on cotton rags is the poster child for spontaneous combustion as it dries out (learned that almost the hard way-caught it before it became a disaster), so I'd recommend disposing of any used rags promptly. They make good waste for lighting up the forge, but I'm careful to keep them separate in a steel container, outside, and isolated.

  • Reply to

    10 FireBrick Forge featuring MagneGas2

    by switchcrete May 22, 2016 9:17 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 May 24, 2016 10:24 AM Flag

    Interesting you should mention linseed oil. That's what I use for quench oil. It doesn't seem to "flare" anything like petroleum-based oils do, and it leaves a very nice black sheen on the workpiece that can be left as a finish (except, of course, for items that need to be polished, such as cutting tools, etc.).

    I also use linseed oil as a "first pass" sealant on browned rifle / pistol barrels, followed up with microcrystalline wax.

    I use it on stocks, as well, and have even tinted it with artists' oil paint.

    I have an old gallon can from Dutch Boy that has the "recipe" for making up paint using white or red lead. We used to add a little bit of Japan drier, as well, because the unadulterated stuff cures slowly, particularly in humid climates.

    Good luck!

  • Reply to

    10 FireBrick Forge featuring MagneGas2

    by switchcrete May 22, 2016 9:17 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 May 23, 2016 5:13 PM Flag

    switchcrete;

    I'm looking forward to hearing more of your adventures in blacksmithing. I have a little charcoal / coal forge I made up years (over 30) ago out of 14 3k fire bricks, a bit of fire clay, four pieces of steel angle, and some steel banding. Still works after all this time; I use it to make tools, small blades, and occasionally impossible-to-find parts for antique firearms.

    When you get around to your hinges, might I be so bold as to suggest a trip to the grocery for a box of borax? I use the "20 Mule Team" pure borax as a fluxing agent for forge welding. If you really can't live without anhydrous borax, cook a little of this in a 350-400 degree oven for 30 or 40 minutes. Personally, I use it right out of the box (it's hydrophyllic, so it clumps like old-time salt); crush it up with a pestle and sprinkle it on (or dip the workpiece in the powder) before heating; takes a lot of the frustration out of learning to get a good forge weld.

    Keep up the good work!

  • Reply to

    Microsoft Edge

    by eagles_forever May 18, 2016 10:41 AM
    china_s2 china_s2 May 18, 2016 1:54 PM Flag

    I haven't used a Microsoft browser since 1987. I tried the then-current version of IE, had boucoup crashes, and gave up on it. I've used Mozilla browsers ever since (Netscape, now Firefox) without a lick of trouble.

    Same with Outlook, incidentally-tried to load that in 1986 and scrambled my OS. I've used Mozilla-based mail applications since, with no worries.

    Having said all that, I did have some troubles logging on a couple of days ago, coincident with one of Yahoo!'s "new and improved" site tests. No problem today, though.

  • Reply to

    Cylinder lease

    by graveldog11 May 7, 2016 8:22 AM
    china_s2 china_s2 May 9, 2016 1:43 PM Flag

    Before filling (and, more particularly, refilling) any steel cylinder with MG2, I'd strongly recommend that you read "Dangerous Gas Mixtures: Avoiding Cylinder Accidents" by Eugene Ngai (published in the 2nd Quarter 2014 edition of the Specialty Gas Report).

    I'd also take a look at an article in the 28 March 2016 edition of the Tampa Bay TImes titled "A year later, fatal Tarpon Springs explosion remains a mystery" by staff writer Laura C. Morel.

    The first article addresses not only H2 embrittlement (a well-recognized, if poorly understood phenomenon), but also some additional, emergent steel degradation phenomena peculiar to H2 / CO gas mixtures.

    From the Tampa Bay Times article:

    Since then, MagneGas created a safety director position and hired Bruce Gane.

    "What that did was it made us better," said Santilli of the OSHA evaluation. "Now with Bruce's leadership, we're really following up on everything."

    Because the company still can't pinpoint what exactly caused the April accident, it completely changed the way it makes its gas, Gane said.

    Instead of using liquid waste, such as used cooking oil, to produce MagneGas, workers now use soybean oil. The company also switched to more expensive bottles.

    "Everything surrounding that situation has been changed without anybody coming in and telling us to change anything," Gane said.

  • Reply to

    Fed and Yellen

    by bogwand Apr 26, 2016 6:05 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 27, 2016 5:54 PM Flag

    bogwand;

    The Fed has made no secret of their desire to have an inflation rate of 2% or so, and have maintained this position for some time now. The current rate ( yearly average vs yearly average) sits at 0.16%. (The Y-o-Y rate for 2014-2015 came in at 0.12%). Naturally, this is based strictly on figures through the end of the first quarter of this year, so the rate will undoubtedly change (likely upward) as the year progresses.

    Personally, I'm not much of a rock fan, but am perfectly contented to sit on the back porch and drink beer, or maybe grab a pole and go fishing.

  • Reply to

    LNG

    by billythart Apr 21, 2016 1:34 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 21, 2016 3:50 PM Flag

    While we're on the subject-

    Cheniere's first ever export via Asia Vision showed up this week in the FERC's import/export reporting.

    For reasons best known to Cheniere and the Feds, the shipment was classified as a "split cargo", consisting of 1,993,109 Mcf domestically-produced NG, and 1,290,482 Mcf imported LNG held for re-export. (The figures here reflect dry gas equivalent volume).

    Prices weren't provided, which is very unusual (first time over the course of five years' worth of continuous records I've seen that).

  • Reply to

    LNG

    by billythart Apr 21, 2016 1:34 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 21, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    Cheniere's Sabine Pass terminal has loading berths for two ships. However many liquefaction trains they may eventually have up and running, they can't berth more than two vessels at one time.

    I believe the last cargo to sail was in Creole Spirit, departing this past Monday / Tuesday. As of earlier today, the loading berths were empty.

  • Reply to

    Henry Hub

    by billythart Apr 19, 2016 7:18 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 21, 2016 10:05 AM Flag

    "China is back in the headlines with steel being up and especially rebar which is a sure sign of new construction in Asia."

    Possibly. I am mindful, however, that the PRC has one overweening problem-finding employment for staggering numbers of job seekers-and that their attempts to solve this often lead to unusual, and sometimes bizarre, production choices that distort the true economic picture.

    Recall that they went all in on photovoltaics in the 2009-2012 period, and ended up flooding that market by channel-stuffing. The end result has been a slew of bankruptcies in that industry all over the world (including in China).

    They have gone on a construction spree that has left massive, unoccupied tracts of new buildings, even to the extent of creating virtual "ghost towns".

    They are similarly engaged right now in overproduction and dumping of steel products other than rebar, so I'm inclined to be skeptical as to whether the rebar production signals anything more than one more full-employment scheme fostered by local (Communist) Party bureaucrats.

  • For billyhart and others who may be interested-

    Below is a comparison of final prompt month settlement prices for Dominion-South Point (DSP) and Henry Hub (HH) for the past few months (NOV-MAR). I've also included the average daily production figures for Pennsylvania shale NG producers (Bcf/d) from Pennsylvania's OGRE data server. (Note that March data are not yet available, thus the "na" for March in that column.)

    Month Bcf/d DSP HH
    NOV 13.070 $1.235 $2.033
    DEC 13.423 $1.508 $2.206
    JAN 13.962 $1.300 $2.372
    FEB 14.384 $1.370 $2.189
    MAR na $1.000 $1.711

    As can be seen, production levels gained steadily, regardless the relative price movement. Now, granted, they may or may not be profitable at these prices (particularly at the local, Dominion-South Point price structure), and I'd be willing to bet they certainly weren't happy with the price, but they obviously were still willing to increase production notwithstanding the price.

  • Reply to

    Henry Hub

    by billythart Apr 19, 2016 7:18 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 20, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    Billy;

    I think it's worth asking whether hedging based on Henry Hub pricing is even relevant.

    A considerable portion of the Eastern shale production (notably Marcellus and Utica / Point Pleasant) has little hope of participating in the Henry Hub futures market. Based on volume, at least, the best analogue for these producers may be the Dominion-South Point hub, which generally commands only around two thirds the price of Henry Hub for a given futures contract.

    As we've already seen, the existing producers there don't seem to be deterred by the current pricing environment, so a rise might actually serve to bring some of the DUCs into service. If Domiion-South Point goes to $3.00, the driller might even start to get interested again.

  • Reply to

    Oil

    by billythart Apr 19, 2016 4:04 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 19, 2016 5:37 PM Flag

    I don't think there's anything really to support it. My recollection is that we had a similar bump last year roughly at this time, driven partly by maintenance, and partly by expectations (incorrect, as it turned out) of a massive power burn over the summer due to coal power station closures. I don't think either argument is any more supportive of a higher NG price now than it was then.

    In fact, I'd posit that local, temporary supply constraints due to maintenance almost guarantee a price drop in future-there's no change in availability of gas at the wellhead, they just can't get it to market, which tacitly amounts to increased storage.

    I also note that, in the last couple of days, the Henry Hub prompt month has outrun the cash settlement price, so I'd imagine the contract will pull back.

  • Reply to

    Oil

    by billythart Apr 19, 2016 4:04 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 19, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    According to what I saw in Reuters today, Kuwait's total normal production is around 3 MMBbl/d, and the strike currently has them down to 1.1 MMBbl/d, so the net loss is 1.9 MMBbl/d, which seems to me insignificant. (in fact, seems to me you could lose Kuwait entirely and they'd scarcely be missed.)

    There's probably enough oil sitting in backlogged tankers to make up for a week or two of Kuwait's reduced production.

  • china_s2 china_s2 Apr 19, 2016 1:30 PM Flag

    Interesting article. Am I reading that publication date correctly? Looks like 25 May 2010. I'd bet it was even more interesting back then.

  • Reply to

    Injection Estimates

    by billythart Apr 19, 2016 12:24 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 19, 2016 1:06 PM Flag

    Is that zero for the report we'll see on 21 April? If so, it's likely a pretty good bet. CONUS popularion-weighted heating degree days for the gas week to be reported Thursday came in at 92. Gas Week 10 had 91 HDD, and ended with a draw of 1 (-1).

  • china_s2 china_s2 Apr 14, 2016 6:27 PM Flag

    MagneGas ought to consider joining the AWS. A "Welding Distributor" membership costs only $540.00 per year, and makes a nice little bullet point on the resume when you're dealing with folks in the industry. The AWS will prorate your dues if you have employees who are individual members.

    I looked today, and found Airgas, Air Liquide, Linde, Praxair, etc., but neither MagneGas nor ESSI seems to have a membership at any level.

  • Reply to

    Oil

    by billythart Apr 12, 2016 1:18 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 12, 2016 6:13 PM Flag

    Bentek had a piece today on the subject. According to them, LNG spot in Asia has fallen to around $4.00 or a bit more; they seemed to believe this was due to falling demand in the face of oversupply.

    Again according to Bentek, the expectation was that U.S. LNG producers (and particularly Cheniere) couldn't afford to ship to Asis for that price, so they expected near-term shipments to be limited to South America.

  • china_s2 china_s2 Apr 7, 2016 5:16 PM Flag

    Since our discussion yesterday, I found another interesting piece; a presentation by Tang Limin of the Sichuan Province Development and Reform Commission titled "Current Situation and Opportunities of Sichuan Shale Gas Exploration and Development", evidently first given at an event in 2014 sponsored by the United States Energy Association.

    I also went back over GURE's figures from their 7 May 2015 press release, particularly their figure for well pressure. That is telling, and is a good indication that you're probably correct in your belief that GURE isn't exploring a shale play. The pressure argues for a depth around the 1,000 meter area, while, according to Tang anyway, typical Sihcuan shale plays are more like 4,000 meters deep.

  • Reply to

    I Thought

    by billythart Apr 7, 2016 1:13 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Apr 7, 2016 4:57 PM Flag

    Billy, that appears to me to be a really good bet.

    Given where we are now, and assuming strictly average injections, we'd be at or slightly over 3,000 Bcf in storage at the end of May. Taking the exercise out to Week 44 (the typical end of injections), average injections would end the season in the 4,500-4,700 Bcf storage range. I believe that's fairly close to the limit of working gas capacity, is it not?