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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

china_s2 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 19, 2014 5:59 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2007
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  • china_s2 by china_s2 Sep 19, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    Don't know how many noticed, but the CEO of ChinaNet Online Holdings (CNET) certainly figured out the combination to get a pop out of the Alibaba debut. Of course, you need to be meeting your reporting obligations to pull that off.

    With that observation, I'm off for some quality back porch time; evenings are getting that first crisp edge; still plenty comfortable, but won't be long 'til I can shut off the Crosley for the winter and just leave the beer out on the porch. Y'all have a great week-end.

  • Reply to

    But... but... HOW CAN IT BE?

    by lbcb321 Sep 19, 2014 1:25 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Sep 19, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    Not to worry. I'm sure that after the initial flush of novelty wears off, many of the newly-minted BABA retail shareholders will experience buyers' remorse and dump their shares (particularly when it goes back to th4 $60-ish area).

    Where better for them to go than that paragon of China RTO virtue, ABAT?

  • Another very interesting facet of Alibaba is their business intelligence data, which includes customs data for a vast number of firms. As one would expect, WuXi Angell Autocycle is represented there. According to Alibaba's data, WuXi Angell exported just two shipments in the 1 July 2012-30 June 2014 period, totalling 546 kg.

    As an aside, I also found a WuXi Hamsun Autocycle company, evidently a competitor to ABAT. They also exported two shipments in the period, for a total weight of 4,053 kg.

    The database is readily searchable, and quite a few very familiar names appear (e.g., Tianjin Lishen).

  • Reply to

    Projections Revenue / gross profit 2015 - 2017

    by special Sep 10, 2014 5:35 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Sep 10, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    Take a long, hard look at the 28 August PR. Their assumptions are as follow:

    Hourly production capability,(of SNG) at full capacity: 25,000 m^3
    Sales revenue per m^3: $0.12
    Assumed "run rate" 24-7, 365 days a year (in other words, a capacity factor of 1, or 8,760 hours annually).
    Predicted Gross margin: 40%

    Working through that, I arrive at total sales of $26,280,000.00, with a gross profit of $10,512,000.00. While that's certainly well within the low range of their guidance, I am mindful that it is very difficult to achieve a 100% productive capacity plus 100% run rate for any industrial facility. This also must necessarily assume that they are able to sell every m^3 they produce. While the demand may be there, articles I've seen lately suggest that there is a certain amount of pipeline capacity constraint in China that is affecting SNG delivery. Might be more problematic in Inner Mongolia than Henan, but worth considering.

    If we apply the same metrics to yesterday's PR, I get sales (on 60,000 m^3 per hour) of $63,072,000.00, with a gross profit of $25,228,800.00. I think the most likely event, therefore, is gross profit for these facilities combined as a best-case scenario of around $35 million to $37 million.

  • china_s2 china_s2 Sep 8, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    I agree with you that it's very instructive to look at HPJ.

    I'd argue that they are late to the game with respect to Li batteries; when I first began trading ABAT (then GBT), HPJ was more or less exclusively devoted to NiMH battery cells. In the last two years or so, they have, as you noted, moved into direct competition with ABAT.

    They are, of course, current in their SEC filings, having recently (13 August) released 2Q 2014 earnings, complete with conference call.

    According to their website, they now offer both cylindrical and polymer Li cells, as well as finished (packaged) Li battery packs for appliances and "...light electric vehicles..." (read: eBikes). I see they also offer battery management hardware.

    Add to that recently-announced supplier contracts with Andalay Solar (storage), Timex (wearable devices), and Acer (laptop / tablet PC's) and we can see just how strongly they are competing.

    Ahen was ABAT's last contract announcement? Seems to have slipped my mind.

  • Reply to

    Keep an eye on SIAF stock tomorrow.

    by realdutch01 Sep 4, 2014 7:06 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Sep 5, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    I watched, but it was pretty tough to see over that fifty-five cent fence (or should I say, the fifty-five cent ceiling?).

  • Reply to

    OT: WLCDF

    by lbcb321 Sep 5, 2014 9:42 AM
    china_s2 china_s2 Sep 5, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    Well, it's never truly "done" 'til the inevitable M & A litigation finishes, so it's entirely possible that PAH could end up with the Rockwood assets. While not the sole consideration, obviously, the simple logistics of having a Li source in Esmeralda County would seem to make a fairly compelling argument in favor of Rockwood (or whomever ends up in succession).

  • Reply to

    OT: WLCDF

    by lbcb321 Sep 5, 2014 9:42 AM
    china_s2 china_s2 Sep 5, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Another company I'm watching as this all unfolds is Albemarle Corporation. Looks as though they'll end up with Rockwood's Li mining and refining operations, which are almost literally right next door.

  • Reply to

    Alibaba following ABAT example.

    by unwiredguy Sep 2, 2014 12:08 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Sep 2, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    Yes, Alibaba is coming to market as a foreign issuer. To your laundry list there, you might add that, at some point, shareowners will be assessed an annual Depositary Service Fee of two cents per share.

    At the end of the day, our respective opinions are meaningless. We'll see what the market assigns in the way of risk assessment. That assessment is already apparent for JD, which Gillis mentioned in a subsequent posting appended to the article I mentioned.

  • Reply to

    Alibaba following ABAT example.

    by unwiredguy Sep 2, 2014 12:08 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Sep 2, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    Paul Gillis wrote a very instructive piece regarding the Alibaba IPO back in May. While it's clear he isn't particularly fond of VIE's, it's also clear he considers the Alibaba arrangement amongst the "best of breed", and he cites some very cogent reasons for this view.

    His article was based on Alibaba's initial F-1 filing, which has since been amended five times, but the numbers might prove interesting all the same. The CIK for the SEC file is 1577552.

  • china_s2 china_s2 Aug 29, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Here are a few more words:

    "While the settlement purports to impose a number of corporate governance reforms on Nominal Defendant ABAT (the "Company"), it is deliberately structured so that Nominal Defendant - which, as a registered company, is required by law to file reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") - can be in full compliance with the settlement without bringing itself into compliance with United States law. I cannot give judicial imprimatur to any settlement of this derivative action that does not require ABAT to bring its years of unfiled financial reports current, and to make future filings for as long as it is legally required to do so... The motion is, therefore, denied... Because the settlement is not approved, the collateral motion for approval of an award of attorney's fees and costs is denied, as is the payment of any incentive fee to Mr. Braun."

    That, of course, comes from the Hon. Colleen McMahon in her opinion denying settlement in the derivative action following the fairness hearing in February. ABAT has missed two more filing deadlines since. I don't see any evidence of a good-faith effort on the company's part to remedy the situation. That doesn't exactly scream "buy" to me; how about you?

  • Reply to

    What aren't you understanding about this?

    by lbcb321 Aug 22, 2014 11:27 AM
    china_s2 china_s2 Aug 22, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    Actually, Fritz, ibn8tn may be onto something, here; perhaps it IS necessary to go to China to learn what's going on with CBAK, and we can't place any reliance on their SEC filings.

    They have, after all, reported quarter after quarter, year after year, of losses, and now they have evidently lost the vast majority of their production facilities due to defaults on debts. It requires a suspension of disbelief to accept the notion that a management cadre is that inept, that the company could really be THAT bad, and still be operating.

    This validates a thesis I have long held-that CBAK's management is engaged in a nefarious scheme to deceive Western investors into thinking that the company is a dismal money pit, when in reality it is earning unbelievable profits that management is hoarding for themselves.

    Very clever, these Chinese.

  • Reply to

    Any CELM shareholders- read message on CELM

    by rmnew2fl Aug 19, 2014 5:17 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Aug 20, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    brntjns1234;

    Good afternoon.

    As them old saying goes, "actions speak louder than words", and I think Mr. Seiden has done a commendable job thus far. The corollary to that might be, "Cash speaks louder still". When you and the other SCEI investors are made whole (or, at least, satisfied with the cash distributed to you as a result of Mr. Seiden's efforts) I'll be the first to congratulate you.

    I'm fairly confident, however, that Mr. Seiden isn't doing all this work out of the goodness of his heart, and I'm sure the same is true of the several firms he has brought on board to assist him. I'll be interested to see the final tally for all that.

    As to the press release itself, I suspect that it's merely a bit of self-promotion on Mr. Seiden's part (recall that he issued two or three similar releases relative to the ZST Digital Networks matter). If it is, as others have suggested, an effort to kite the share price, I doubt it will prove to be very effective.

    As an aside, I note that Mr. Seiden has also been appointed as receiver in the matter of Yinlips Technologies, another case in the Delaware Court of Chancery. Shares of Yinlips were, I believe, issued in a strictly private placement, so it hasn't had the public exposure that ZSTN and SCEI have had, and I have no idea what progress he's made in that case.

  • Reply to

    Any CELM shareholders- read message on CELM

    by rmnew2fl Aug 19, 2014 5:17 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Aug 19, 2014 5:50 PM Flag

    Yes, ZSTN, SCEI, and now CELM. It would appear that Messrs. Graff and Seiden have the makings of a little cottage industry here, trying to pry investors' money from these PRC operating subsidiaries. Mr. Seiden evidently has done yeoman's work so far in gaining operational control of these companies' various non-PRC shells, but I've yet to see any indication that a net positive cash return has materialized for the aggrieved investors.

  • Found an interesting piece on Bloomberg News dated Thursday last.

    Using the following as a search parameter:

    "How to Make 43% Profit in China With No Idea What You Bought"

    should get you to the article.

    A couple of highlights:

    "The perception that IPOs are riskless has encouraged some investors to use borrowed money, exposing them to deeper losses once prices stop climbing, according to Lin Jin, a senior analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. in Shanghai.

    China’s benchmark money-market rate rose the most in three weeks on July 23 as orders for five IPOs spurred an increase in demand for borrowed funds. The central bank said yesterday that the deals helped fuel a record drop in local-currency bank deposits last month as customers shifted funds to their brokerage accounts."

    Sounds reminiscent of the climate in the U.S. circa late-1920's.

    Also:

    "Investors’ rush into Chinese IPOs, which have rallied an average 94 percent from their issue price this year, or seven times more than the global average, contrasts with lackluster demand among local investors to participate in the broader stock market. Traders have liquidated about 1.3 million mainland equity accounts since the end of March, leaving the number of funded accounts at a four-year low of 52.55 million."

  • I don't know how many of you here follow the FTSE-Xinhua "China 25" index, but I heard of a change today (via iShares) that is worth noting.

    As the name implies, the index as currently constituted tracks 25 selected stocks that trade both as "A" shares in the mainland PRC and as "H" shares in Hong Kong. A particular criticism of the index has been that it lacks diversity, and is especially skewed toward the financials sector (currently 15 of the 25 component equities are financials).

    According to iShares, the index is to be reconstituted in September, and will track 50 equities as of 19 September. Hopefully, the new index will be broader.

    Well, the beer's cold, and I'm off. Y'all have a fine week-end.

  • The SEC today issued another scheduling extension order in the above-styled matter, pushing the earliest brief filings back another 45 days, to 3 November 2014 (see Release 72845). All parties, including the SEC's Enforcement Division, had requested the further extension.

    While this would delay the conclusion of the SEC case until sometime next year, the language of the extension request implies that settlement discussions are ongoing, offering at least the possibility that some resolution apart from proceeding with the litigation may be achieved, rendering the filing schedule moot.

  • The SEC today revoked the registration of China Electric Motor (CELM), together with another PRC-domiciled issuer, Westergaard (WSYS).

    Neither was particularly remarkable, except that there are STILL posters on the CELM board who seemingly think they'll be saved by a buyout. Optimism is a fine thing, but when the last train is long gone, and they've pulled up the tracks and ties, there's not utility in hanging around the depot hoping for a ride.

  • Highpower International (HPJ) reports 2Q earnings Wednesday next. Should offer us a glimpse into the state of the battery business in China.

    Haven't heard so far when CBAK is due to report.

  • Reply to

    Up on no new info?

    by goalis100000in1year Aug 6, 2014 4:11 PM
    china_s2 china_s2 Aug 6, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    Kidding aside, the only thing I've seen lately that's remotely related (and remote is the word) was a ruling two days ago from the ALJ in the BDO China Dahua CPA Co. et al, case permitting the filing of an amicus brief in the case by a local Chinese trade group. If you read the decision (Release 34-72753), it's far from clear that the panel will actually consider the brief when forming its opinion, but the admission of the brief at all, in the ciscumstances, is worthy of remark.

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