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Curis, Inc. Message Board

chinesehamsters 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 13, 2014 6:20 PM Member since: Sep 24, 1999
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  • chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Oct 13, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    Way back before Kadcyla obtained its first approval I had been watching this company and bought into it based on the strength of the clinical data as it became available. My cost basis was around $7. I made the right decision to set the money aside and go back to cash when we were around $12ish. The current weakness aside from the overall market makes me wonder if there is another secondary offering in the works. Higher roylaties from Kadcyla are still further out, and licensing fees are not just flying off the shelves either. I will continue to sit on the side lines, but at some point this has to become such a compelling value that some one buys them, or the alternative is the board has no choice but to get rid of Junius. Not even those fat cats can justify keeping this current manamgement in place.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    Poor Charlie's financial hardship

    by bioimmunomabman Sep 30, 2014 3:00 PM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Oct 2, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    Really, they are giving Morris $125K to help defray the costs of a 2nd residence in Mass where the company headquarters is located, while he keeps his primary residence in Pennsylvania. So isn't that his choice? Do they offer that kind of housing assistance to all of the employees, umm no. Is Morris so remarkable that he should be catered to? I have not seen anything remarkable about him. I have not seen anything remarkable about any of the IMGN leadership team. These guys are like vampires sucking the company drie until it is a corpse.

    Off topic. The Ebola situation and that is has shown up in the United States now may provide some unique investment opportunties. Look over some of the players in that space. The FDA has a special situational path to approval for drugs in early stages of development that will allow human use pretty much without going through any clinical trials. I think it is termed the animal model, they can do a safety and dose escalating study in monkeys and if that looks OK they can proceed directly to human use. Sad that a situation like this has to develop to focus all the resources needed to curb this disease.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • chinesehamsters by chinesehamsters Sep 25, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    I have paired back to nothing in Immunogen at this point. I also liquidated several other positions this week as it seems the market is choppy at best, and today gives us an idea of how quickly things can go south. I will continue to watch and gauge Kadcyla progress, but I'm not going to leave that many eggs in one basket. As has been said many times, this is a very impressive technology but the management in this company is exceedingly poor. I don't know why they cannot ink a biz development deal with such a powerful technology, so that has to tell you something more about this management team. Good luck on this one folks.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • chinesehamsters by chinesehamsters Aug 22, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    The ADC technology this company has is one of the most impressive new developments in biotech than I have seen in years. Unfortunately it is in the hands of a bunch of embiciles that have been unable to ink a meaninful deal with anyone in the last couple of years. What looked like a very promising investment has turned into dead money for me. So its time to fold up the tent and move on for me. I may keep a few thousand shares, but I have allocated way to much into this one holding.

    Not only are these fools doing nothing to generate any new biz, but it also looks like we are starting to see significant pushback from reimbursement/insurance regulators also. To them, it does not matter what the drug can do for a patient if it costs more than they are willing to pay. For that reason, Kadcyla's growth may be limited. We are still a few years out from seeing the label expanded for Kadcyla as a result of the ongoing clinical trials. We cannot blame the current management for the royalty structure for Kadcyla, but that is also working against Immunogen as well. I sincerely hope that Immunogen get's aquired so that this ADC technology can truly be put to use and create some meaningful new drugs. Too bad you cannot sell covered calls in a 401K as I would use that to move out of this investment.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    Earnings expectations?

    by afro_bro_bro Jul 28, 2014 1:23 PM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jul 28, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    I keep seeing that comment here, that Kadcyla is dissapointing because Perjeta sales are so much better. Currently Perjeta is approved for two indications in combination use with Herceptin. Kadcyla is currently approved to treat HER2-positive breast cancer that has spread to other parts of the body (metastatic breast cancer) after prior treatment with trastuzumab (Herceptin®) and a taxane. Prior treatment could have been for the initial treatment of breast cancer or for the treatment of cancer that had spread to other parts of the body. So it should not be a big surprise that Perjeta is currently outselling Kadcyla, just due to the approved indications and thus what oncologists can prescribe within the label.

    If you go to clinical trials.gov yo will see over 40 trials for Kadcyla. The big trial (MARIANNE) ongoing is in 1st line MBC, and that trial has one arm with Kadcyla plus Perjeta. This is the indication that will put Kadcyla on the map and open up earnings considerably. We should see some data in 2014, but the trial is not scheduled to end until April 2016. So just sit back and wait.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    I'm feeling a good vibe somehow

    by slumdawg2011 Jul 18, 2014 12:34 PM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jul 18, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    I don't have the confidence in the IMGN management to monetize the full potential of Kadcyla sales. They may monetize on a peak sales of $5 billion rather than the $9 billion that will eventually materialize.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    Seriously, #$%$?

    by chinesehamsters Jul 16, 2014 2:46 PM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jul 16, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    A press release noting the granting of orphan drug status for a molecule would not be material if they were in talks of being bought out. I am not buying that for an excuse. I hope they do get bought out, anywhere between $15 - $20 a share. That way I don't have to watch their miserable performance any longer.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • chinesehamsters by chinesehamsters Jul 16, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    The drug given orphan drug status is most definately their folate targeting ADC 853, which is wholly owned by Immunogen. Is it that much effort to put out your own press release? At this point even this board of directors has to be getting tired of this #$%$. Junius should just resign or kill himself. I never thought this company would still be floundering in 2014 with such an impressive technology at their disposal. I wonder what those 10 or so biz development people do with their time. This is just hard to watch anymore.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    IMGN started at BUY

    by bioimmunomabman Apr 16, 2014 9:28 AM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Apr 16, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    Finally an analyst with a calculator did the math. They are still a bit short on their forecast of Kadcyla sales however. It will approach closer to $9 billion than the $7 they are predicting. I have been saying that for the last two years. Kadcyla is why I bought this stock and stick with it. Anything else that comes out of the pipeline is just gravy.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Mar 4, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    IDEC did develop Rituxan, and Genentech inked a deal early on (1995) to take on commercial manufacturing in exchange for a royalty arrangement. The royalty in retrospect was pretty small, but for IDEC at the time a piece of something was better than nothing at all. Then Roche of course owned the majority share of of Genentech (late just bought them), thus Rituxan sales globally are not reflected in their earnings.

    Thus my speculation that Roche might be thinking about buying Immunogen if they come up with a potential Rituxan replacement. As I said earlier, IMGN 529 is still in a very early stage of development, so maybe wishful thinking.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Mar 3, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    I think Roche is more likely to buy out Immunogen than Seattle Genetics for a couple of reasons. First is that they would just save themselves the trouble of paying the royalty stream to Immunogen on Kadcyla for the next 18 or so years. Second, Immunogen actually has another wholly owned ADCC that gets little mention, IMGN 529. This one is in early clinical testing, but the primary indication is non-Hodgkins B cell lymphoma. Roche has another huge blockbuster drug called Rituxan, which is also going off patent soon. This might be a way of keeping that revenue in-house. I am not aware of what Roche is doing to preserve that market once Rituxan goes off patent. IMGN 529 is not a timely solution for that however, but I do not know of a relevant biosimilar that is in the works by anyone either. TEVA was but squashed their program due to concerns about return on investment.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    Per PR, Sounds like another 3 months

    by fib1_1_2_3_5 Jan 24, 2014 7:35 AM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jan 24, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    My take on all of this. ECYT apparently has some significant questions from the regulators they have not yet addressed. ECYT is trying to pretend that this the expected course of action when it is not. It was quite clear in looking at the CHMP agenda that Vintafolate and the diagnostic were being discussed for a positive or negative opinion. You can also see via the archives the CHMP has where they have requested information from ECYT last year, I think in March and again in November. What is really bothersome in ECYT's press release is they give no indication what so ever on what the outstanding issue is, so I can only conclude from that deafening silence that it is pretty significant. This is enough of a big red flag for me to run far far away from ECYT until they sort this out, if they sort this out.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    Yesterday's CHMP/EMA Outcome?

    by jmlregoog Jan 22, 2014 10:08 AM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jan 22, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    After looking at some of the meeting minutes published from last year it looks like the CHMP will post their opinions the day after the close of their 4-day meetings. So we might expect to hear the outcome on the 24th of this week, if they continue to follow the pattern they had in 2013.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    Oral Presentation

    by paintball_is_stellar Jan 21, 2014 8:09 AM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jan 21, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    On page 27 of the agenda they show a time line for the various stages of the approval process. Assuming we are at the 180/181 day point where outstanding questions are addressed, it is approximately another 30 days until the CHMP issues it's opinion, then another 67 days for the official stamp of approval from the EC. It looks like they have questions from March 2013 and then additional items from November 2013 and they would like some Enodcyte folks on hand to discuss any items they may not have addressed to their satisfaction, thus the possible oral explanation. I don't know that we will see any news at all out of this meeting today.

    Not a very fast process for an orphan drug is it.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    Common, you've got to be happy with this move!

    by biobottom Jan 14, 2014 1:43 PM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jan 14, 2014 9:10 PM Flag

    I think everyone under estimates Roche on their Herceptin franchise. First, biosimilars are not easy to make. You have to match the innovators molecule almost exactly, and then manufacture it. The cost of manufacture to any new comer will be essentially the same as Roche. The cost of marketing and sales likely more. So if we're Roche and had a couple years to see Kadcyla data fully mature, why wouldn't you just drop the price of Herceptin to compete with any biosimilars?

    Don't forget that Roche has also been working on a subcutaneous version of Herceptin. This more convenient dosing could give them control of the Herceptin market even after patent expiry.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    Common, you've got to be happy with this move!

    by biobottom Jan 14, 2014 1:43 PM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jan 14, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    Feb 2016 is clinical end point. I would expect some interim read before that date, and if they meet their primary end point sooner than Feb 2016 an independent review board may recommend ending the trial early and moving towards approval with the early data, but the trial would continue on until Feb 2016. In fact many trials continue past the defined binary end date as long as patient are responding and benefiting from the trial drug.

    This company's story is all about Kadcyla and how it matures towards approval for multiple indications. Anything else Immunogen has is all gravy.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • Reply to

    OT: Endocyte

    by chinesehamsters Jan 10, 2014 1:20 PM
    chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jan 10, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    I see that the EMEA agenda had Endocytes drug on it for review this month, and the meetings took place January 7-9th. That means the meetings are over. I think the action in ECYT is the result of a news leak, my assumption is they have been given conditional approval and we will likely see the official press release in the next few days. On that note, I picked up lots and lots of call on ECYT for January and February, strike price $15.

    I don't expect to see anything like the action in ICPT, but the circumstances for ECYT or setting up nicely for a short squeeze there as well. I still believe that ICPT is the result of a short squeeze, and it may be also be fueled by some big banks that are throwing gas on the fire by putting new price targets up to $800 per share on ICPT. The good news for their drug I don't think warrants more than a $5 billion market cap increase. Fun stuff if you are an ICPT employee, all 45 of them.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • chinesehamsters by chinesehamsters Jan 10, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    Endocyte is having a nice day. Looks like the EMEA has them on their calendar this month to discuss approval of their drug. By now you have all noticed ICPT and the amazing increase in share price there. I think part of what you are seeing there is an epic short squeeze. There just does not seem to be enough shares available for the shorts to cover with. Lots of insider and institutional holders control most of the float.

    Why do I compare the two. Endocyte also has a very very large holding by insiders and institutions so there is not that much of the float available for the shorts to cover with. My rough estimate is there are about 9.6 million shares out there that are traded, and 3.6 million shares are short. I don't think I am the only one that has noticed this today. Looking at buying into some calls on this one today.

    Chinese Hamsters

  • chinesehamsters chinesehamsters Jan 7, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    Bio, you gotta stop watching the tape so closely. Your driving yourself crazy. Junius is going to remain at the helm for the foreseeable future. the appointment of a new CFO without any other changes confirms that. Whatever Immunogen does with the pipeline molecules is just gravy. This year (and next) it is going to be all about Kadcyla sales. It is currently approved practically world wide now for 3rd line MBC, and you know physicians are going to morph their diagnosis slightly in order to give their patients this drug if they need it. Were going to start seeing what demand on the global scale looks like starting this quarter. Roche reports on January 30th. Until then I think we just trade side ways.

    Chinese Hamsters

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