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Alaska Air Group, Inc. Message Board

chip_stack21 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 11:05 AM Member since: Sep 28, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Delta's Refinery

    by jan_m_k Dec 15, 2014 6:06 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Dec 19, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    There is no "backfire" cost. For accounting purposes you can show a "loss" should the crack spread create a disadvantage to refining your own Jet Fuel but Delta not have to SELL Jet Fuel for a profit, they have to BURN Jet Fuel for a profit. Can you see the difference?

    The refinery is part of a value added, vertical supply chain.

  • Reply to

    WOW! EPS Estimates Revised Waaaaaaay Up.

    by chip_stack21 Oct 23, 2014 4:18 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Dec 12, 2014 8:40 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    fuel hedge

    by mdbang Dec 3, 2014 4:28 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Dec 3, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    Fuel Hedges are accounted for in ticket prices. That is absolutely all you need to hear correctly. Once the airline locks in its costs it can effectively price its product to cover costs profitably. Everything else you hear is just noise.

  • Reply to

    In the short term hedges will kill us

    by ca.andse Nov 30, 2014 8:09 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Dec 1, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Another shockingly ignorant post absent a single clue how a fuel hedge works.

  • Reply to

    DELTA TO BUY 50 A350S

    by andse2003 Nov 19, 2014 9:12 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Nov 20, 2014 9:16 PM Flag

    It would be convenient for Delta to do it and absent other factors they might but the problem is Alaska. If DAL puts the squeeze on HA there's no way they can then turn around and take out ALK. They'd never get past DOT. If DAL keeps their powder dry, theres no way ALK can take on a massive code share with JAL or the like and hand Seattle to the Japanese because DAL would immediately go hostile. Sure ALK can share with AA or UAL, that cats out of the bag but the chess game being played out now is one of long term survival for ALK without a code share partner in the far east.

    I don't know why the waters got so poisoned between those two but that's how it is now evidently and that's why DAL has to keep away from another merger temptation and grow the company from within. Cheer up, HA can instantly transform an airline like VA, JBLU or SAVE into a global competitor. I think JBLU would work well because it just finished T5i in JFK complete with Customs and everything but they've sold out to some many European carriers its embarrassing and theres no likelihood of that happening now. SAVE could turn DTW into a real base reaching everywhere in the civilized world in A330's though.

  • Congrats to all patient longs. This was a REVENUE proposition as I have always said and often been thumbs downed for saying. Now you know. Multiple is born of growth and this management is growing the business. Next time you call IR, you might drop a thanks in.

  • Reply to

    .88 Per Share Accretive.

    by chip_stack21 Jan 5, 2014 1:34 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Nov 2, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    Management must be kicking themselves knowing this revenue stream could have been take out for just North of $10 per share when I posted this 10 months ago.

    LOL HA stock is $17 now. Donkeys.

  • chip_stack21 by chip_stack21 Oct 31, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    So now not only is Management growing the revenue, they will have to protect profit/cash flow through FX markets. I don't envy them, they've got a very tough row to hoe. They've proven themselves thus far and I have great faith. That said I am an owner of the stock. If it looks like they don't "get it" I'm out.

    This could be a very pivotal moment.


  • Look at that estimate for 2015!!!

  • Hats off to management and the YoY top line growth which exceeded estimates by a slim margin.

    I'm impressed.

    This airline is NOT about EPS. Its a revenue proposition. Can management grow the business?? I think we have out answer. Now we wait until the street applies a proper multiple to earnings. $20 in 2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Nor 8 weeks before Christmas.

    BANK on it.

  • chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Oct 16, 2014 10:26 PM Flag

    Once again, the initiative will be to save the Holidays. Retail. Travel. Hotel/Restaurant. Its on man. The narrative will confirm the conviction already in place. They're just trying to make it palatable.

  • chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Oct 16, 2014 10:21 PM Flag

    This statement is all you need to know. The Fed is not going to kill Thanksgiving and Christmas to save Easter. COUNT on QE(More) until a reasonably assured INflation rate is achieved.

  • Reply to

    Nothing but QE4 Prevents $130.

    by chip_stack21 Oct 11, 2014 7:43 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Oct 13, 2014 6:23 PM Flag

    I remember in Q1 when we first exchanged I indicated an appetite for TBT under $65. You pointed me in a direction that I hadn't considered. The (seemingly) impossible proposition that interest rates would decline if the Fed exited the market by taper or otherwise turned out to be some incredibly accurate prophecy and saved me mucho pesos.

    Oh, I'd say I get it. Now. Thanks.

  • chip_stack21 by chip_stack21 Oct 11, 2014 7:43 PM Flag

    That pretty much puts TBT under 45. Imagine.

  • Which Will Happen First: QE4 or a Fed Funds Rate Hike?

    by Roger ThomasOctober 10, 2014, 5:46 pm

    Current chatter among market analysts largely centers economic conditions in Europe and slower, but still robust Chinese growth, as the triggers behind the recent weakness in the S&P 500. As a counter to the Europe and China stories as the main causes of the weakness we’ve seen since September 18th, take a look at the following graphic.

    The figure shows the performance of the S&P 500 overlaid with the expansion in the Federal Reserve balance sheet. No doubt, there’s a fairly strong connection.

    Fed Funds Rate

    When QE1 ended in June 2010, the S&P 500 declined around 15% from peak to trough (April to mid-August). (The market was ahead of the curve in anticipating the end of the QE1, akin to current market moves and the expected end of QE3.)

    Fed buying treasuries to keep balance sheet constant

    A couple months after seeing the economy respond, the Fed announced that it would buy $30 billion in Treasuries to keep the balance sheet constant at $2.05 trillion. The constant balance sheet idea didn’t do enough in the Fed’s eyes. Thus, in November 2010, chairman Bernanke announced QE2, another $600 billion bond-buying program.

    QE2 ended in July 2011. As shown, the market was unpleased with the end of QE2 just as it was with the end of QE1, shedding around 15%. After watching for a year, on September 13, 2012, the Federal Reserve announced on an 11-1 vote that it would implement QE3, initially at $40 billion per month. The $40 billion expanded to $85 billion soon enough.

    After a little less than a year of the continued balance sheet expansion, the Fed, under Bernanke’s leadership, announced a tapering path (June 19, 2013). The initial step was to reduce the monthly bond purchases from $85 billion per month to $65 billion per month.

    Given this history, it’s likely unsurprising given that QE3 is coming to end soon, that the market is displeased with the path in which the Fed is heading.

    It looks like the market started thinking about the end of QE3 on September 18th, with the S&P 500 down about 4% since then.

    If QE1 and QE2 are any guide, the S&P 500 has another 10% to go before reaching bottom.

    What will the Fed do if QE backdrops

    With the experience of QE as the backdrop, which is more likely to happen first:
    •The Fed increases the federal funds rate; or
    •The Fed implements QE4.

    If the consensus view is correct that QE3 ends in November/December, this means the Fed has to make it another 7/8 months until it starts raises the federal funds rate (at least, that’s when the market expects the Fed to raise rates).

    Can the Federal Reserve make it to June 2015 without announcing QE4?

    Given the sharp shift towards a dovish turn in the Fed’s latest statement, the answer is probably no. The majority of market participants seem to want (perhaps even expect) QE4. We’ll see if the Fed obliges.

  • Reply to

    13 states dropping their obamacare exchanges

    by zevoter1200 Oct 8, 2014 6:20 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Oct 9, 2014 9:55 PM Flag



  • Reply to

    13 states dropping their obamacare exchanges

    by zevoter1200 Oct 8, 2014 6:20 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Oct 9, 2014 9:54 PM Flag

    Yeah, Yeah. Hey Jackwagon, when the States can bring healthcare in lower than the Affordable Care Act they're allowed to. Whuuuuuuuuut?

    #DUMAZZ. #Obvious #TeaFarty #LightningDolt

  • Reply to

    Merenkov, you never explained the logic

    by ironcladirony Oct 2, 2014 4:38 PM
    chip_stack21 chip_stack21 Oct 9, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    "You do realize that you don't have any capital gains until you actually sell, right?"

    Bro, where were you $50G ago? #Kickin'myself.

56.16-0.18(-0.32%)Dec 19 4:09 PMEST

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