In flinging their feces in the faces of RCP longs, the shorts repeatedly, ad nauseum, claim that they do not operate illegally. That what they do is all above board. And that the non-shorts are supposed to believe them.
Recently on the SEC daught gov site, where the gov is followed by a slash, then "admin", then another slash, then "2013", then another slash, then finally "33-9488.pdf", you will read an SEC order against Marie Huber and colleagues for manipulating DNDN's stock price a few years ago. The Background section lays out in gory detail the efforts Marie and her partner went to in order to drive down DNDN's pps. For one of the few times in recent history, this hedge fund team was busted for stock manipulation.
You will see the lengths that some shorts go to in order to trash a company's reputation, including getting into the details of chemical and biological MOAs to the point where they could make the claim that Provenge (DNDN's product) would kill people.
See for yourself if the actions taken in this document sound familiar to what you read on this board from the shorts. Just keep in mind that the flingin' can get furious at times.
If you are a RCP shareholder, there is a vision which I believe you must subscribe to in the long run if this company is to be successful. It's rather easy to ferret out from the 10-Q and the PR.
As for forecasting quarterly revenue, my hat's off to TPNomo's mysterious 'regression model' (can't be explained here for some reason), which came close to the actual $2.3M number. Here's one model I've been using (which is a time series model):
QR (N+1) = 1.0 * QR (N)
where QR(N) = quarterly revenue at time N
Works rather well. In layman's terms, it says that next quarter's revenue = last quarter's revenue (lacking any catalysts to bump up sales).
But looking out a few years hence, as the vision takes hold, it will look something like this:
QR (N+1) = 1.0 * QR (N) + ST(N) * ASPT(N) + SA(N) * ASPA(N) + ...... [other diseases shown to be significantly affected]
ST(N) = # of scripts of doctor proscribed anatabine for thyroiditis patients in quarter N
ASPT(N) = ASP for thyroiditis scripts in quarter N
SA(N) = # of scripts of doctor proscribed anatabine for alzheimer's patients in quarter N
ASPT(N) = ASP for alzheimer's scripts in quarter N
and so forth.
That is the vision for the company, where trials demonstrate the effectiveness of anatabine of various inflammation related diseases. Obviously, if the trials DON'T show such effectiveness, the company is kaput. It is also the only hope for the company.
In order to see the vision come to pass, RCP will likely (IMO) partner up with a deep pocketed pharma company in exchange for a piece of the payoff. For the partner, a small investment (in trial costs and obtaining FDA approvals) in return for some decent money. I'm guessing they'd want at least a 5:1 ROI in order to partner up.
Mullan knows what he has to do to make the vision come to pass. And sitting behind his new desk as CEO and doing nothing is NOT it. If the shorts somehow think RCP is going to sit on its hands, they shall regret it.
It's always nice to know when I get under the skin of the feces-flinging shorts here. Those folks who operate similarly to Marie Huber and associates in order to try and bring down a company and its stock price. That article on their nefarious practices should have been an eye-opener for readers here on how these people operate. That would include all those here who, for whatever magical, mysterious reason spend time bashing a buck thirty three company. Nobody I know in my circle of friends and work associates would ever spend their time this way. And most of you don't either, I presume.
So, why bother? You know why --- the people they represent are very afraid. Period. What they don't realize is that THEIR very efforts are the REASON why so many longs continue to buy RCP stock: there must be value here for someone to complain so loudly about a stock that supposedly should collapse under its own weight of worthlessness. When the shorts end up weeping, they will have only themselves to blame. It's quite funny, really.
So goes a raging argument between nomo and some longs on this board. Nomo claims that study doesn't say it "works". Longs claim otherwise.
Here's one way to clear the air between the two sides. Review this quote from the study:
"This study shows nutritional supplementation with anatabine significantly reduces circulating TgAb levels in Hashimoto’s thyroiditis patients. These results confirm an immunologic effect of anatabine in humans as previously shown in a preclinical model of Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (7)"
To declare himself the winner in this debate, nomo most likely will try to claim that "works" means providing an absolute cure to Hashimoto's. In that case, he is … so far … correct. But he is also so very NOT correct in the intent in which I and others think he actually meant his statement: that there is nothing worthwhile that anatabine can do for these patients.
So to clear the air between nomo saying it doesn't "work" and those who disagree with him, I would ask nomo to answer this question:
Does anatabine successfully impact the leading cause of Hasimoto's thyroiditis disease?
A "no" answer would require a valid explanation.
Well, folks, here we are again stuck in the zone that STSI's stock price has preferred for the last 2 months. However, with the release of this latest peer reviewed study, the argument by the shorts that NO study was forthcoming has been obliterated. They are now having to scramble to find something, anything, to tear down its importance. For the longs, the story remains in tact.
It has been intellectually heartwarming to see so many intelligent posts discussing the study. Bravo to those contributors who have been (apparently) lurking in the shadows, waiting for something worthwhile to discuss. The importance of this study, as determined by the medical experts in the appropriate fields of study, will ultimately move the stock price in one direction or the other. Its importance will certainly not be determined by any of the usual short misfits on this board. They lack both the medical knowledge as well as credibility for telling the truth.
The future of this company has now been put on the front burner. Let the chips fall …..
Interesting conclusion, there Mr. TP Nomo. I'm going with a different interpretation of the study: the one that has a stellar medical researcher coming to take the helm of RCP, along with the company's intention to file with the FDA. If the "Ut-oh" was as meaningful as you would like it to be, neither of these events would be occurring. Why bother to file with the FDA if anatabine is useless?
Wishful thinking of your part, TP. But certainly not surprising.
Actually, quite comprehensible JB. Why don't you try refuting his arguments and suppositions instead of the usual name-calling? When you resort to mud-slinging, it tells everyone you have no argument to make. So do the only thing you're good at: shooting the messenger.
These 'real arguments' are pointless, whether true or false. They are intended as distractions from the only thing that matters regarding Abloc: does it or does it not provide significant improvement in one's impaired health, defined as having any number of medical ailments?
If it does provide real improvements, the product will survive and grow. If not, it will vanish from shelves. Any arguments pertaining to GNC, tennis tournaments, Facebook, anecdotes, etc. are chaff. And yes, nomo is good at tossing out irrelevant chaff into the corn pile.
So, if this stuff is all a bunch of noise, then what are investors looking for? I already identified it: significant results. Which can only come in published papers, peer reviewed by scientific experts in the appropriate fields of study. The company's life depends on these studies. Longs know it; shorts know it. EVERYTHING else between now and when the studies come out is nothing but NOISE. Which is why the stock price remains in a narrow zone of support and resistance.
Nomo = Noise. Put your earphones on and listen to some good music while waiting for events to unfold. Next catalyst on the calendar: Virginia general election, taking place next Tuesday. When that is over, look for the political loose ends surrounding STSI to be tied up.
Isn't it obvious why? To support the narrative that they are SO desperately trying to peddle today. They were definitely caught flat-footed with this news, which in itself is good news for longs. It shows they know SQUAT about what's really going on and all of their bogus arguments these past 6 months have been just that: bogus.
They are definitely scared that this news could propel the stock higher, as in most (other non-manipulated) cases it would. You are seeing the shorts hard at work to avoid a calamity.
Regarding GNC sales vice online sales:
1) We know from our own data (and the company's admission) that online sales, with higher profit margins, have decreased in favor of GNC sales, with lower profit margins.
2) Some folks wonder why RCP doesn't sell Abloc at other outlets. My educated guess: the arrangement with GNC was restrictive, in that GNC insisted that it be the ONLY outlet to sell the product (else why bother?)
3) It is not impossible that overall the number of bottles sold went up, with the numbers at the online site going down and the numbers at GNC going up, even though revenue was lower. In other words, it's possible that RCP sold more bottles than the previous quarter but revenue went down due to GNC's pricing and resulting profit margins. That's one question for either the shareholder meeting or the first CC, date TBD.
4) It is also therefore not improbable that when GNC sales clerks indicate that their sales are rising, they are actually telling the truth. Again won't know the reality until the company comes clean.
This post is not to indicate that the company (or shareholders) should be happy with the overall revenue and profit numbers. It just offers one way to analyze the data, which I admit is the best possible way to do so without violating the laws of physics. And math.
I doubt I'll be posting much in between major events for the company, as this latest 10-Q and news PR was what I've been waiting for. It's also rather apparent that there are plenty of smart longs here who can hold their own against the devil's brigade attacking the castle walls with illogical and flawed arguments. I remain long RCP ... and patient. And hopeful for humanity.
It's the end of the week, and so once more I present my end-of-the-week chart analysis:
(i.e., see last week's chart reading for relevant verbiage). Move along. Nothing to see here.
I've been correct with my chart readings for the past 8 weeks, which is rather easy given STSI's circumstances and the equilibrium that buyers and sellers have achieved. I'd say it's rather remarkable, given both the large short position as well as the potential for a huge upside.
The shorts are reticent to throw more shares into the woodpile to try and incite a large sell-off of the stock, less they get severely burned. And the longs are reticent to suck up more shares out of the available supply pool less they get burned by unexpected bad news. And each side is reticent to close out their positions, holding firm that each is correct in their own view of things. Equilibrium.
And to think that some so-called analyst says the chart clearly indicates a rapid downside movement to the $1.60s and lower. Amateur hour!
So this is your prediction for today? Is that your second prediction this week? Every time I turn around you're making another prediction ... which hardly ever materializes. If you throw enough garbage out there, something might stick to the wall, but everyone has been conditioned (by you, no less) not to take your musings seriously. You're still underwater on your short, your "$1.90 is the top!" call still makes people laugh, and your over-the-top desire to be right about something is interesting to behold (to say the least).
You see, if you want to be taken seriously, start by telling the board WHEN the stock will drop below $2. Just saying it will at some point do that is hardly a tough call to make. And also, tell the board if the stock will STAY BELOW $2 if it does go below $2. Those are the makings of true TA predictor. So far you've just made yourself a laughingstock.
With no news coming down the pike, the STSI pps remains range bound for another week. Hopping around in the $1.90's, it awaits a catalyst to move it up or down. Meanwhile, a mammoth base at the $1.90ish level continues to build. I remain convinced that the brief run up to $2.50 was instigated by the MMs to drum up option business during the final week before October option expiration. It also explains why the price ended below $2.00 on OPEX Friday --- deflating all those calls that were bought in the hype of the run-up.
Where to from here? As I've been saying for several months: nowhere. And this will likely be the case until the JW political circus is resolved sometime after VA's election in 10 days, at which point the company can put this issue behind it and focus on business.
I'm sorry that the pps continues to disappoint stsinomo, who insists that it crater down to $1 and below. The chart does not support that move at this time, just as it doesn't support a run to $2.50 and beyond. His insistence these past weeks that the pps behave as he wishes does make for a good laugh.
It was obvious that the run-up to $2.50 (also known as an option strike price) occurred the week before October option expiration. This was pure manipulation by MMs wanting to drum up some option business, given that the STSI ops had been basically flat-lined for the previous 7 weeks (translation: no option making going on = no money coming in for the MMs).
So they ran it up to $2.50, held it there for a day or two to see if they could get some poor souls to buy some STSI Call 2.50 options, which were doomed to expire worthless. In fact, the MMs walked the ops all the way back down to $2.00 (the next lowest strike price), causing ALL of those October 2.00 calls to also expire worthless as the ops ended OPEX week at $1.97.
This run-up and run-down has nothing to do with the fundamentals underlying STSI. It did transfer wealth from call buyers to MMs in as little time as one week. This situation was a good lesson in putting on some tight stops on the bought calls, so that all of an investor's money wasn't lost. Don't get suckered into these MM machinations!
Just provide the date (time irrelevant) and order #. I'll calculate the average ONLINE monthly orders since we stopped counting orders due to the shifting of orders from online to GNC.
I agree with star merger that JW is being ousted (the harshest way to say it), as it's in the company's best interests to have a pedigreed researcher at the helm. That in turn will help form alliances and partnerships, which is what the company needs at this point. JW was not the man to make those connections. That is why I'm very happy about that move,
As for JW's selling of shares, I don't see that happening for two reasons: 1) This company is his 'baby' and he's not about to let go of it now, not when it's on the cusp of making a mark in the medical community; and 2) He most likely doesn't need the money and he also quite likely thinks it's worth a lot more than it's trading for at the moment.
As Izof says, check for the 14-A forms in 48 hours to see if he is. The selling today was TIMED to push down the price below it's most recent level of support at $1.70 and to keep it below that value. Coincidence? Not from where I'm sitting.
Some facts, first, before the speculation:
1) Many different blocks of calls were traded at the Jan '14 $1.50 strike, most of them between 10am - 12pm EST.
2) Nearly all of the calls were sold for 5 cents, with a few going for 6 cents.
3) Previous open interest was 4,089 for this strike price, indicating these trades were "sell to open".
4) These call trades were not paired with any other of today's trades.
Now comes the speculation:
1) The easiest and simplest explanation that requires no conspiracy theory is that an investor with 6.6 million shares is locking in some extra income (= $5 * 65,916 = $329,580) by selling 65,916 covered calls.
2) Short conspiracy theory: Selling calls is a bearish maneuver. Thus the MM is on the other end of the trade, buying these calls, which is a bullish maneuver. In order to balance his risk the MM will need to sell an appropriate number of shares (the opposite but equal reaction to buying the calls). This selling of shares drives down the share price, so that at some point the shorts will pull the trigger and cover. Please note, though, that today's volume was 'only' 2.2M shares, not out of line with recent trading. If extra shares were being sold by MM's to counterbalance risk, it isn't totally obvious to me.
These two are the only plausible ideas I see behind today's option trading of the Jan '14 $1.50 calls. So far none of it that I can see is illegal. If the investor was selling naked calls (i.e., uncovered calls) then the only requirement is that the investor have sufficient capital to support the position.
This trade could also be seen as a belief that RCP won't be above $1.50 come Jan '14 option expiration.
Another week spent in a narrow zone between $1.90 and $2.00. Same as the last 4-5 weeks. As to whereto from here? If you recall my last post on the status of the STSI chart, all I have to say this time around is "Ditto".
It should be revealing to shorts that even during times of general market stress, such as today, STSI did not decline but instead it rose. To me that means that all those who wish to sell STSI have sold, which leaves the current shareholders who must be waiting for something to happen.
Meanwhile, my prediction for a federal government indictment of Gov McDonnell, with or without JW, now has one week of life left. I believe that announcement will be the key that unlocks the dam of information waiting to come from STSI. (Nobody wants to release a 'good news' report only to have it be overshadowed by something not so good).
The weekly chart review reveals that the bollinger band squeeze on the STSI pps, which became tighter during the week, eventually caused the breakout. To the upside no less. On massive 3.4M shares as well, indicating this was no fluke of a ride upwards.
Because $1.90 -$2.00 has served as a consolidation area for so long now, this line now stands a solid line of support for future pps activity. Currently STSI is only slightly oversold by one indicator (CCI), while RSI and MACD remain reasonable and more positive.
I had maintained that this breakout wouldn't occur until news was released regarding the JW investigation or the publication of the thyroid study or something similar. Judging by the volume, one could possibly conclude that such an event is coming early next week, as word as leaked out to those with connections. Or...once STSI broke above $2.10, the rush to cover by shorts was in full gear. I look forward to discovering the impetus behind today's action.
Meanwhile, here's a blast from last July, in response to a post I wrote to tivonomo, suggesting he was incapable of reading charts given his past history:
"1.90 will be the top.
FYI, I have the best TA record of anyone posting TA on STSI. I wouldn't ignore this word of advice.
Now some idiots that know very little about TA will like and protest here... but none have the experience I do with technical analysis."
Yes indeed tivo(stsi)nomo is the best chart reader around. No other proof needed.