Is this your first rodeo buying bioteck stock with a binary event? Don't trade biotech stock and certainly not with emotions.
Options are quick way of making money but it has its cons. And now you see here. I do hope that you make your money before your option expires.
the very first thing I realized in investing is that msgboards where like minded people posts and gang up against person of opposite view ;)
If yahoo posts would have affected stock price movement we would be all millionaire by now.
We do...but unfortunately I'm convinced that there is no fundamental news that can move it out. The FDA approval is already baked in. 17-0 people..it is given. Just want to see the label.
Thanks for the efforts Richard. I think for the first time in my 5 years of investing in biotech I came across a person who met BOD at annual meting and actually reported back what happened.
I saw traders read your message and the stock is down :)
Ohh, Look at this Josh has put on his technical hat now.
There was no trendline for the time period you mentioned. What happened in march was a spike. The first spike it got sold off and then bounced again to the same level. If you want to see the real broken trendline is from the spring and summer of last year where it topped out at 325.00. From then onward there is clear broken trendline with bottom forming at 92 and then since then it is trending up.
It has to breakthrough 175 with volume to the upside. I don't think it is going to happen. Too many sellers.
by the way genfit has never ever had a trend line. The spike and selling off happened till February when they finally raise money at the bottomest of the bottom $20.00. would short Genfit but the money has already been made.
For people looking at Pharamsset and Receptos as a model....
Both drugs were proven in phase2 and were really slamdunk. Intercept and Genfit has question mark over their drugs. the only advantage ICPT has is that it has another indication in its kitty with next generation molecule in phase 1 right now. that is something to really like.
I don't think you are looking at buyout with NASH premiums. Gilead is interested in NASH because it is primarily an immunology/liver disease company and has been building a big program for NASH. Merck and Abbvie and perhaps even JnJ can be a good acquirer if they want to undercut Gilead.
My strategy is to trade this stock with a core set aside. I think that should be done with any biotech stock.
that lately has been almost 2 3 years ago. DNDN seems like eons ago. Except for DNDN none of them were any major approval and the three you site were for Obesity with lot of problems with REMS.
It all depends on what the label is. But regardless don't expect a major bid by any pharma company because of an event. big pharma have already done DD and a 17-0 vote doesn't leave much in doubt about FDA approval. I would hold this one for a long term.
Genfit is competing with Intercept. both have a overhang on their respective drug in NASH. For more info ask JoshWright and lerm . they can tell what is wrong with the competing drug.
After FDA approval..nothing. You go out and sell the drug. next few months will be spent on selling the drug and how good the uptake of drug is. All the big players can swoop in buy anytime for right amount of price. the only other positive news that I can think of failure of GILD's drug in phase2. If they don't then pressure is on them. Nimbus's drug is still in phase 2 and so really far along. If you know NASH trials take a long time to accrue and if everything goes well Nimbus's drug will hit market in 2022.
Don't bank for a buyout on approval. It is NOT going to happen. look for spike. the spike will only hold if the label is generous. if not then we will see a sell off as well.
Other thing I did not mention is increased m&A activity in biotech..Rising tide always lifts all the boats.
Trader and awesomeone.....I would say never get involved in a biotech stock based on hope that it will get bought out in short time. Short time can be a real long time. Big Companies are looking to buy, mine is looking too. But the problem is small companies don't want to sell right now, not at the distressed value and big companies know the game. they are going to wait it out. So I wold be surprised if Intercept get bought out before summer end. Also look out for launch and see the uptake of the drug. If it is good we will be in blastoff mode and I would say 320 and change would do it.
Hey feetyme, I didn't use 3 dots!
As long as you and feetyme are here we will have to live with lerm....By the way I saw your stupid tweet about the new NASH player looking at Genfit as their competition....Wow where do you guys come from? And then you have gonads to complain about Lerm's posts.
Don't worry...did you cover your short? if you did not we are talking about paper gains and paper losses. So don't pat yourself too much. joshwright/Abalest/feetyme/logribel/blahblah
Don't bank on it. Bioteks are muddled up and the way I see it M&A will happen after only November. not because companies don't want to buy but simply because companies don't want to get sold in this bear market. They still are dreaming of the 2015 spring valuations. US presidential elections is the hang over.
I guess have to have one for each of you bozos...love it when shorts accuse pumpers of pumping when they are taking a dump on the stock.
This is the problem . Sometime it is the first week, sometime it is the middle week and sometime it is the last week. Sometime it is the short week because of long weekend, sometime it is the week before the long weekend..And sometime it is just the cold season.
Sorry to rail but at some point we have to realize that sales and commercialization has done an awful awful ob of launching this drug.
So what's the lesson here? For small biotech always go to the approval and then bail...don't wait for commercialization