Since we are down this low, it would be nice to test the 1 Nov low on lower volume. The last couple days have had increased relative volume so I'd like to see the price stabilize here today and then go a little lower tomorrow on much lower volume. Then, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce.
I mentioned a couple months ago that a local Walmart (S of Sacramento) did a closeout sale of SODA products. Last week, they had a "bigger than ever" display of SODA. Couldn't find a rep to see how they were doing. Don't know how quickly they restock, but the display didn't look picked over.
My own unsophisticated channel checks of two Walmarts, a Target, Best Buy and Bed, Bath & Beyond have been uninspiring. BBBY workers always seem to be the most optimistic on the product. I went into a large Walmart late on Thanksgiving. It was a zoo but the SODA display did not seem to be generating much activity. I agree with Beauty that maybe the NPD was poor leading to today's downturn. Not sure what affect Amazon's larger role is having on the data.
Thanks Seth. Is that a weekly comparison from the previous week or same week from previous year? If it was just week to week, seems like it must be driven by promotions? Walmart and others catching up on inventory likely helped some but not to the extent of these numbers (realize NPD data is sell-out).
I understand the appeal and reach of a Super Bowl commercial but it seems to me an elaborate commercial based on the Christmas season would be more profitable. People are going to spend lots of money for the holidays and are usually paying off those debts when the Super Bowl rolls around. Thoughts?
NPD data looked great. What period are the comps calculated? Weekly, monthly, year over year....? TIA
Cold, could you tell if these were buys or sells? Selling those puts would bring a nice return if someone thought the next 3 months were going to be positive for SODA. There were also over nearly 1100 Oct 67.5 puts and over 1100 Oct 60 puts today. Maybe a spread but too much risk for so little relative gain.
Anyone have an update on how the Brazil rollout is coming along?
There was some talk about India awhile back but nothing new the last few weeks.
Any new countries?
Tejdem's Amazon data seems to imply things are slowing a little in Germany and France. Tej, have you found any correlation to the Amazon data and SS sales?
I'll take some of the blame for the latest downturn. I sold some puts (long position) and the stock immediately started to slide. I'll warn you next time.
No need to be sorry, especially twice. The post wasn't intended to be negative, just observations. Here's the info, call the store and post what they say.
8465 Elk Grove Blvd
Elk Grove, CA 95758
The new Walmart took a lot of business from this particular store. It's nicer, easier access, better location.
The clearance was on all sodastream products, not just some flavors. The "bailing" was just a first thought and why I followed up with other stores. Just because they were lauding this product a month ago doesn't mean sales are good today....if you have updated sales data, please provide. The BBBY had a nice display and video of sodastream just as you walked in the door. The manager I talked with was speaking for that store only and not BBBY as a whole.
Stopped by a Walmart south of Sacramento today and they were doing a clearance on sodastream products. Caught me completely off guard and scared the #$%$ out of me thinking all Walmart's were bailing. Another larger Walmart opened up in a nicer neighborhood only two miles away about 6 months ago. I drove over there and talked with the manager heading up that department. She said they just got a new shipment in and the sales were going really well. Sales had been going slowly due to poor product placement in the store. Stopped by a BBBY and the manager said sodastream was consistently 1 or 2 in sales each month. Whew!
Tej, I saw your Costco posts from yesterday. Looks like a lot of machines in stock. Is that good or bad? Do you have any comparisons to what they had before and do you know if they are selling well? TIA.
That's exactly what I'm asking myself. $1.48 equates to about 1.2% If it takes a month or two, that's not a bad return plus the risk seems small. Market seems a little frothy here with budget battles, debt ceiling, Fed...so not clear where I can find a low risk alternative. That's why I asked if there were any hurdles to this deal. Thanks again.
Zbuzz, holeinone, thanks for the feedback. Is it worth picking up ONXX for the 1 1/2 points? Interestingly, there are no bids for the 125 calls even out to Jan 2014. If the option boys are right, frustrated ONXX shareholders aren't going to see anything higher than 125.
Seth, it was mentioned on this board before and I was just curious if there is any credence to the claim. If they are finding lots of stores to stock the product and the product isn't moving, that's something I'd like to know. I doubt that is the case since it would be ridiculous for the stores to buy so much if they didn't feel they could sell the product. Tejdem's data on COSTCO says the product is moving but the sample size is small. People have mentioned the NPD data has been positive so I was hoping someone would confirm the NPD data shoots holes in the channel stuffing theory. I was afraid my post would be taken negatively but that was not my intention. I'm positive on the company, I'm currently long the stock and short some puts. Would appreciate your thoughts and have appreciated your previous posts.
Relatively new to SODA so forgive my ignorance on a couple of Qs. When does SODA register a sale? When they move the product to one of the stores (WMT, BBY, etc) or when the store makes the sale? I assume the former. A couple posts awhile back accused SODA of "channel stuffing" but it seems the NPD data and to a lesser extent, Tejdem's Amazon/COSTCO data shoot holes in that theory. I'm long the stock and regularly sell puts and calls to rake in some premium. TIA and good luck to all.