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Amgen Inc. Message Board

chkifny 60 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 21, 2016 2:01 AM Member since: Feb 12, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Buyout question

    by chkifny Mar 20, 2016 11:13 PM
    chkifny chkifny Mar 21, 2016 2:01 AM Flag

    Thanks for the post sofyam, I may wait until the 10K comes out. It would be tempting to buy at a lower price but I'd still buy protection. So much negativity now that anything bordering on good news will drive the price up quickly.

  • chkifny by chkifny Mar 20, 2016 11:13 PM Flag

    Pfizer is merging with Allergan at a cost of $160B. ANG's revenue last qtr was only 50% higher than VRX, $4.2B compared to $2.8B, yet they could buy VRX for less than $40B today ($9.2B equity plus $30B debt). Realize there is a cloud over VRX and there are other factors but it does seem cheap in comparison. I looked at buying the stock and buying puts for insurance but the puts are extremely expensive. Thoughts on a buyout if this continues lower?

  • I saw a headline early on my Fidelity platform that read "Humana set to release earnings" but didn't give a date. Is there any chance they will release after markets close today instead of the 29th? Anyone know for certain? I left a msg with their Investor Relation dept but they haven't gotten back with me.

  • Reply to

    Is a large holder getting out?

    by njswingtrader Mar 14, 2015 1:06 PM
    chkifny chkifny Mar 14, 2015 11:55 PM Flag

    Increased volume but nothing too concerning yet. What is concerning is the number of shares sold by the insiders. Almost 17 percent of insiders shares sold over the past six months. That's a bad sign. It's hard to find a company who's insiders have sold so much.

  • Reply to

    Two Cents worth

    by goldenseth Feb 4, 2014 8:31 AM
    chkifny chkifny Feb 4, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    NPD data was very positive in Nov & Dec. Amazon data was spectacular at times. Watching both these metrics you would have never guessed the company would come up short on revenues and flat on earnings for last quarter. If I paid a lot of money for this data and my stock dropped like SODA did, I'd be PO'd.

  • Scarlett will be on Good Morning America on Wed am talking about her latest sponsorship (I assume SODA).

    I've been selling SODA puts the last 3 weeks and watched expire worthless. Tried last Friday to sell this weeks 48 puts at a couple pennies above the bid but they wouldn't take it......thanks computer! Sold some 35s this afternoon and will just roll them over if they get in the money. Today shows you charts don't lie. The chart has looked awful for a long time, likely predicting today's event. Shorts won....congrats!

  • chkifny by chkifny Jan 2, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    Lots of puts being traded. Even tomorrow's weekly puts with a strike of 47 are getting lots of action. Looks like most of it is buying as the premiums are ridiculously high with one day of trading to go. If you're positive on the stock and want to buy more, selling puts may be a good strategy. I sold a handful of tomorrow's 47s. If the stock is below 47, I'll roll them into the following week or sell calls against the shares put to me.

    There have been lots of posts about how well the machines have been selling (NPD, Amazon, personal observations, etc). The stock is trading as if there is pending bad news or sales aren't so positive. Has the NPD data always been reliable compared to company's sales reports?

  • Reply to

    Bad new coming?

    by chkifny Dec 13, 2013 11:29 AM
    chkifny chkifny Dec 13, 2013 11:39 AM Flag

    It was a question. The stock is trading as if there is bad news coming despite what appears to be very positive results. I don't usually like management responding to stock swings or rumors but this price action is ridiculous and I'd like management to confirm earnings for the quarter to reassure their long term shareholders.

  • chkifny by chkifny Dec 13, 2013 11:29 AM Flag

    The stock is trading as if there is bad news coming.
    Doesn't add up. NPD numbers have been very positive. The 2 wk NPD average yr over yr covering Black Friday in each yr up over 100%, decent HSN promotion, great US Amazon numbers, decent Europe Amazon numbers, flavors issue hopefully resolved. I would think, with all the promotions, Black Friday week would be the biggest sales period of the year? If the sales are as good as they appear, management needs to come out with a statement confirming their earnings estimates. If not, they are going to lose some loyal shareholders and shorts will continue to rule.

  • Since we are down this low, it would be nice to test the 1 Nov low on lower volume. The last couple days have had increased relative volume so I'd like to see the price stabilize here today and then go a little lower tomorrow on much lower volume. Then, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce.

    I mentioned a couple months ago that a local Walmart (S of Sacramento) did a closeout sale of SODA products. Last week, they had a "bigger than ever" display of SODA. Couldn't find a rep to see how they were doing. Don't know how quickly they restock, but the display didn't look picked over.

    My own unsophisticated channel checks of two Walmarts, a Target, Best Buy and Bed, Bath & Beyond have been uninspiring. BBBY workers always seem to be the most optimistic on the product. I went into a large Walmart late on Thanksgiving. It was a zoo but the SODA display did not seem to be generating much activity. I agree with Beauty that maybe the NPD was poor leading to today's downturn. Not sure what affect Amazon's larger role is having on the data.

  • chkifny chkifny Nov 6, 2013 12:55 PM Flag

    Thanks Seth. Is that a weekly comparison from the previous week or same week from previous year? If it was just week to week, seems like it must be driven by promotions? Walmart and others catching up on inventory likely helped some but not to the extent of these numbers (realize NPD data is sell-out).

  • chkifny chkifny Nov 6, 2013 12:22 PM Flag

    I understand the appeal and reach of a Super Bowl commercial but it seems to me an elaborate commercial based on the Christmas season would be more profitable. People are going to spend lots of money for the holidays and are usually paying off those debts when the Super Bowl rolls around. Thoughts?

    NPD data looked great. What period are the comps calculated? Weekly, monthly, year over year....? TIA

  • Reply to

    NPD data

    by beauty90210211 Nov 5, 2013 8:05 AM
    chkifny chkifny Nov 5, 2013 10:18 PM Flag

    Dirty, what period are those comparisons? Weekly, Monthly, yearly? TIA

  • Reply to

    November $67.5 puts

    by coldinny Oct 15, 2013 2:28 PM
    chkifny chkifny Oct 15, 2013 7:29 PM Flag

    Cold, could you tell if these were buys or sells? Selling those puts would bring a nice return if someone thought the next 3 months were going to be positive for SODA. There were also over nearly 1100 Oct 67.5 puts and over 1100 Oct 60 puts today. Maybe a spread but too much risk for so little relative gain.

  • Reply to

    Brazil and recent downturn

    by chkifny Oct 11, 2013 3:19 PM
    chkifny chkifny Oct 14, 2013 1:29 PM Flag


  • Anyone have an update on how the Brazil rollout is coming along?
    There was some talk about India awhile back but nothing new the last few weeks.
    Any new countries?
    Tejdem's Amazon data seems to imply things are slowing a little in Germany and France. Tej, have you found any correlation to the Amazon data and SS sales?
    I'll take some of the blame for the latest downturn. I sold some puts (long position) and the stock immediately started to slide. I'll warn you next time.

  • Reply to

    Norwalk, CT WalMart

    by jerryinsct Oct 7, 2013 8:02 PM
    chkifny chkifny Oct 8, 2013 1:04 PM Flag

    OK, thanks. I stop by the same BBBY store every 10 days or so and each time they have been enthusiastic about the Sodastream sales.

  • Reply to

    Norwalk, CT WalMart

    by jerryinsct Oct 7, 2013 8:02 PM
    chkifny chkifny Oct 8, 2013 12:38 PM Flag

    No need to be sorry, especially twice. The post wasn't intended to be negative, just observations. Here's the info, call the store and post what they say.
    8465 Elk Grove Blvd
    Elk Grove, CA 95758
    (916) 684-7100
    The new Walmart took a lot of business from this particular store. It's nicer, easier access, better location.

  • Reply to

    Norwalk, CT WalMart

    by jerryinsct Oct 7, 2013 8:02 PM
    chkifny chkifny Oct 8, 2013 12:05 PM Flag

    The clearance was on all sodastream products, not just some flavors. The "bailing" was just a first thought and why I followed up with other stores. Just because they were lauding this product a month ago doesn't mean sales are good today....if you have updated sales data, please provide. The BBBY had a nice display and video of sodastream just as you walked in the door. The manager I talked with was speaking for that store only and not BBBY as a whole.

  • Reply to

    Norwalk, CT WalMart

    by jerryinsct Oct 7, 2013 8:02 PM
    chkifny chkifny Oct 8, 2013 1:35 AM Flag

    Stopped by a Walmart south of Sacramento today and they were doing a clearance on sodastream products. Caught me completely off guard and scared the #$%$ out of me thinking all Walmart's were bailing. Another larger Walmart opened up in a nicer neighborhood only two miles away about 6 months ago. I drove over there and talked with the manager heading up that department. She said they just got a new shipment in and the sales were going really well. Sales had been going slowly due to poor product placement in the store. Stopped by a BBBY and the manager said sodastream was consistently 1 or 2 in sales each month. Whew!

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