Bwavepools..... After reading your message, Mercedes comments and Mr. Mize man's message on 4/15, I decided to stay put. All 3 of U made a lot of sense, so I decided to stay in. Good luck to us all!
No need to be nervous($ is in the bank). They usually announce 1st part of May. Unlike many X dates and pay dates(which come after announce date), NMM usually pays the dividend within 1 week of Xdate which is quick compared to most companies. The X date will be approx. 5/7/15 and pay date will be 5/13 or 5/14 so you should be in good shape. Heck, they may even surprise you with minor(1/4 penny) increase but don't hold your breath. The big question is where does the price per share go from here(13.09+ or back down to 11-) either way your dividend is good!
Hate to say it, but it sure seems you are right. Thank goodness I did not own it when it was at 15 or higher, but like you I feel it should be a $15+ valued stock and cannot figure why it does not seem to ever be able to get there. Heck, it cannot even manage to get back to the $13.09 price of the most recent offering and it certainly seems it should be a $13+ stock, but it is only worth what people seem willing to pay. Thank goodness for the favorable and secure .4425 dividend which is why most of us longs have it to" begin with." The good news is we are less than 1 month away from our next dividend.
Not much going on with NMM and probably a good thing just to be flat and coming into a pre dividend period when there is usually a slight uptick. While I realize "Market Edge" is not a great barometer, we did get a mild upgrade from them today that indicates a slight bullish trend as well as Neutral. Probably due to coming into a dividend Xdate not to far off. Otherwise, fairly boring and not much activity. .4425 is something that one can get excited about.
I believe you are right on target about disgruntled buyers, and I think for the time being 12.50+ a few pennies as you say is most likely the best we can hope for now. Obviously, I do not know when and what it will take(most likely some GREAT NEWS & another respected upgrade) but I do think it will see 14 to 15, but no time soon. I hate to say this as I certainly hope for better, but something good has got to happen to take out the $13.09 and do not know when that will happen. Thanks for your post as they are among the best and most logical post on this board.
Look at these dates on Chart for NMM: 3/13, 3/17, 3/19, 3/20, 3/23 Beginning with 3/13 and ending with 3/23, you will see a perfect "W" formation. I am not a technician or a magician and certainly do not believe in everything I read, see on cnbc, Bloomberg, or hear from various analysts, but I once listened to a fairly respectable Financial analyst/technician that claimed such a "W" formation on a chart usually leads to a long move up(certainly not always or for certain) and until today, we have been moving north since 3/20(bottom of the right side of the "W" formation). Also, the upward trend after the W does not have to be a straight shot. Someone yesterday insinuated we may have a .40 drop today and/or tomorrow before we see a continued move back up starting sometime next week. I am not predicting anything, but it will at least be something we can watch and see if the "W" formation we saw between 3/13 and 3/20 comes to fruition or means nothing. Even if we do continue back up, we will never be sure if the "W" was simply a coincidence or if there may be something to it.
How do you see all this Block trading? That certainly explains why NNA was up .12 today which based on a high $3 stock is approx. 3.17% up day. Heck, if NMM had a 3%+ up day tomorrow, that would put us over the $12.50 mark which is a good short term goal. It did not hurt that NNA & NAP got some help this morning on a CNBC live interview with a couple of analysts, which one insinuated the Oil side of the Navios family(NNA & NAP) is something they think is going to benefit from oil storage needs and shipping needs due to Countries taking advantage of cheap prices and stock piling cheap oil and obviously need tankers to transport same and store it as well.
You are certainly in great shape at those numbers! No one can complain about the % of distribution. Some of us simply do not have the average cost entry point you do, but cudos to you for that good fortune.
All the family members(NNA, NAP, & NM) are in the green except us(NMM) today and we are probably the best of the 4, certainly if you base best by dividend(which you do not) . I find it strange to be in the red period considering recent positive update by DB and other encouraging news about NMM with the dividend only 1 month away. Oh well, I always seem to expect too much from NMM and probably alone in feeling we should be in a higher trading range to begin with. Be Thankful for what we get I guess.
You sure seem to have this pegged. We make another run at 12.40 this morning only to have it sell off back below the 12.25 you mention( and probably in the red per another post). Hopefully it is simply too soon to expect it to get to 12.50 and/or break to the upside to reach the latest 13.09 offering price.
NMM is certainly capable of doing this as it certainly provides you with some wild roller coaster type activity, but in the end let's look to get to 12.50-13+ prior to the early May X date & mid may Div Pay day of approx. 5/13. Above all unless you are not in for the consistant & secure divi, let's look forward to the .4425 in about 1 month. Right now 12.40 certainly seems to be a hurdle.
Low Volume in NMM plus what you said about someone dumping 50K shs and yet managed to stay in the green by .07. Not much but considering the 50K dump and low volume that is better than ending in the red when you are trying to climb back to 12.50 to 13+. Maybe we can have a better day tomorrow, but a little green here and there adds up over time.
Looking at NNA and NM(both in red) and NAP(barely in the green), one can see why NMM is conservatively in the green, but probably(much better)more so if the other family members were doing better.(in the green) Take what we can get as it will not be an elevator straight up to 13+.