Q2 wasn't just a great quarter, it was a phenomenal quarter. Keep in mind that the company earns the majority of its revenue in AUD dollars (AUD). During the quarter, the AUD was at its weakest levels in over the past 5 years and averaged $0.78. When AYSI reports its financial, the revenue is shown in US dollars (USD). One could convert the revenue to AUD ($8.974 million USD / 0.78) to see that Q2 was a record quarter in AUD ($11.41 million AUD).
More importantly, EBITDA was a record $3.8 million USD for the quarter, a record quarter in USD or AUD.
In the past year, AYSI has also released a new ceramic product. It would be interesting to know how that product has been accepted by the market and if its been contributing to these record results.
I think the "weakness" in mining is actually a huge benefit to AYSI. AYSI's product are designed to minimize disruptions due to maintenance and allow mines to run more efficiently and profitably. AYSI's key selling points are exactly geared toward these benefits. So long as volumes continue to grow, miners will be extremely focused on driving productivity and profitability gains from their existing operations, especially in this low-cost environment. I expect to continue to see strong performance, especially as prospects in China are starting to improve.
The valuation of the company is absurdly low. They have consistently shown that they can perform in any market. They have been profitable every year except in 2009, when they lost $72,000 (only $72,000!!! in one of the worst recessions and mining environments). It baffles me how this company with its consistent performance can be valued at just 1.8x EBITDA, when its weaker competitors trade at over 5x - 8x EBITDA.
At what point does AZN or Astellas just buy FGEN? They have some large milestone payments left to pay FGEN. FGEN is eligible for ~20%-25% royalties and over $1.5B in clinical and commercial milestones –- including $762M in upfronts combined. At today's share price, FGEN is valued at only $945 million (Enterprise Value).
Still plenty of downside risk. I'm out of my short at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if this fell even more. As I've said all along, they're going against some rough headwinds with Q4's weak orders, the decline in backlog, and currency. I think a good quarter is in the range of $0.35 EPS. It wouldn't surprise me if the stock dropped even further after reporting $0.35 as fair value as I've been saying all along is in the $20 - $25 range. Upper $30's and low $40's were a gift longs should have taken... Good luck to you.
Great call here as the stock had just overshot to the upside. I hope we were able to convince a few longs to at least sell some of their holdings when the stock was $40. I've trimmed back my short even more as the risk/reward holding into earnings just isn't as great when it's trading at $29 versus $40... Still think fair value is around $20 to $25, but not much upside left to being short here, especially with the drop this has seen over the past week.