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Saratoga Resources Inc. Message Board

chris_cs16 161 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 11, 2014 5:43 PM Member since: Aug 21, 2001
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  • Yahoo announced that it has acquired BrightRoll for $640 million this afternoon. BrightRoll is expected to generate over $100 million in sales this year and is profitable. RUBI is already over $100 million in revenue and is projecting over $120 million in sales this year along with being profitable. RUBI, however, is only valued at $345 million (enterprise value)...

    A similar valuation as BrightRoll ($640 million) would put RUBI at over $20.50 per share...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Omnicom also revealed on the earnings call that programmatic media buying — which makes the buying of media far easier than TV because the process is automated —accounts for just around 2% of the company's revenue. However, with a recent Forrester study forecasting programmatic ad spend across North America will double to $39 billion by 2019, Wren said the company was " rapidly evolving" its business to ensure it had the capability to serve clients in this area. There has been a "meaningful increase in demand" from clients for the company's programmatic services over the last year, he added.

    Omnicom Group, the world's second largest advertising holding company by revenue, just gave the market another major indication that TV dollars are moving to digital.

    Speaking on the company's third-quarter earnings call Tuesday, Omnicom Group CEO John Wren explained how the rise of programmatic advertising and the increase in quality inventory becoming available online over the past few months has seen a "rapid shift" in the way clients have been booking advertising.

    Referencing the move from TV and traditional advertising to digital in particular

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yahoo may be close to buying video ad startup BrightRoll for about $700M. BrightRoll has revenues in the range of $100 million, which implies a 5x+ revenue multiple. Rubicon trades at only 2.5x revenue...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rubicon as Takeover Target?

    by chris_cs16 Sep 20, 2014 11:06 AM
    chris_cs16 chris_cs16 Sep 23, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Millennium Media today announced the acquisition of Nexage, a mobile advertising exchange, for ~$110 million. Consolidation in the industry continues with RUBI being a prime asset.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yahoo has always been rumored to be interested in acquiring Rubicon, even going back to before RUBI's IPO.

    http://www.benzinga.com/news/12/11/3111741/rumor-yahoo-to-acquire-the-rubicon-project

    With all the recent cash generated from the BABA IPO, Yahoo will likely look to use some of those proceeds to acquire companies in the adtech space to enhance its competitive stance against GOOG and others in the industry. RUBI fits well with YHOO and would help expand their presence in the space. Several articles are starting to come out suggesting the same.

    http://money.cnn.com/2014/09/19/investing/yahoo-aol-rumor-alibaba/index.html?source=yahoo_quote

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/12883884/3/yahoos-alibaba-cash-could-trigger-a-buying-binge-in-tech.html

    I think the recent acquisition of Conversant will be the start of a wave of consolidation in the industry, with RUBI being a very attractive target.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 chris_cs16 Jun 24, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    Check their facebook page. Lots of updates there, including:

    Arcoplate's Newest Development

    Arcoplate's latest break through in 2014 is producing our 4ft wide plate. Traditionally, our 2ft wide plate has serviced the globe since 1991. Arcoplate's 4ft wide plate was introduced to our manufacturing plant 6 months ago after 3 years of engineering testing. This was the company's millennium break through with our new single pass 20mm on 11mm wear plate. Arcoplate has now included our full range of anti-hang up and carry back wear plates in 4ft wide plates, from 12mm to 32mm.

    Innovation from Arcoplate continues. The below blurb comes from their facebook page, which has been quite active here lately. If only they were as good as communicating with investors as they are with communicating with potential customers, we'd be above $2.00.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 by chris_cs16 May 23, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    Great company growing sales at 30%+ a year with long-term EBITDA margin goals in the 25% range. The company has great products and is gaining share in its markets. They are also branching out into complimentary products which should keep revenue growth strong. Company beat on Q1 results and guided Q2 higher than consensus. Wouldn't surprise me if they did the same in Q2. I see them trading north of $15 later this year as they gain a greater following on the street.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Undervalued

    by chris_cs16 Apr 28, 2014 3:24 PM
    chris_cs16 chris_cs16 May 7, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    This was always a 2015 story and it still looks to be a 2015 story. Q4 results will start to show the improvement that we shareholders are looking for. With today's decline, 45%-50% of the company's enterprise value was wiped out. This is a bit extreme. The company's backlog reamains, its just been shifted further out to the right. Brazil is a huge potential market for them. Good news on deployment there could take this right back to $15+. I continue to hold and bought more around $11. This story is taking longer to play out than I expected, but I still feel that SSNI's best days are ahead of it.

    Good luck to all...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 by chris_cs16 Apr 28, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    SSNI trades at a mere 9x 2015 EBITDA and 6x 2016 EBITDA, while competitors like Itron trade well above this level. Given SSNI's recurring revenue model and limited capital spending, I would expect them to trade at a premium to Itron's multiples. The company has a strong backlog near $1 billion, Comed is looking to accelerate their deployment, and the industry is still growing. By the end of this year, it wouldn't surprise me if we're trading back above $20, or if SSNI gets bought out by CSCO or another industry player.

    Good luck to all...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WOW!

    by sandykoufax32 Apr 24, 2014 6:09 PM
    chris_cs16 chris_cs16 Apr 24, 2014 6:11 PM Flag

    Best part was hearing that there were no large contracts in the guidance that could trip us up similarly to Q1. Business remains strong, growth remains strong y/y... Share price should recover, if not, it wouldn't surprise me to see this one put in play.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 by chris_cs16 Apr 24, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    Solid guidance... Stock should move back up above $17 tomorrow and eventually above $20...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 by chris_cs16 Apr 21, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    QURE has partnered with Chiesi in the EU for launch of Glybera, receiving a 20-30% net royalty rate. Analysts expect Glybera sales to reach up to $125 million by 2020, just in the EU. The EU has granted orphan drug exclusivity for Glybera for treatment of LPLD until October 2022.

    In the US, they are moving toward US approval with additional trails, and expectations that the company launches the drug on its own by 2019. Sales in the US are expected to be similar to the EU. QURE expects to submit an IND filing for Glybera in the US in 1H14.

    But I think QURE's value goes beyond just their treatment for LPLD. The company has a strong portfolio of gene therapy programs and will continue expanding its pipeline. Analysts mention that the Hemophilia B gene therapy could be a game changer as it offers the potential to eliminate the need for routine Factor IX replacement. Additional clinical stage pipeline programs include therapies for Porphyria,Sanfillipo B, and Parkinson's disease. QURE will likely add pipeline programs in the coming months/years.

    They should be able to get through 2016 - 2017 before they need to raise cash again.

    I think for the price, QURE represents an opportunity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 by chris_cs16 Apr 17, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    Sell-Off seems a bit overdone here. The company's enterprise value is now approaching $60 million. Just jumped in with 2,500 shares. Looking for $11+ in the next few weeks on a bounce. Would help to get an announcement that they found a replacement CFO, but that will probably come in a month or so...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The global market for smart meters is expected to reach USD 22,177 million by 2020, according to a new study by Grand View Research, Inc. Smart meters provide two-way communication and benefits including time-based rates, faster power outage detection and resolution, and dynamic pricing among others. Initiatives by regulatory authorities to establish smart grids and ensure energy efficiency are expected to be a considerable growth driver over the forecast period.

    Benefits of smart meter installations resonate across the value chain, which is also a key driving force for the industry. Customers can potentially cut down costs by lowering peak hour electricity demand; additionally, on-site visits and manual readings can be eliminated. Inconsistencies in deployment on a regional level coupled with lack of standardization in technology are expected to pose a barrier to market growth.

    The report “Smart Meters Market Analysis And Segment Forecasts To 2020,” is available now to Grand View Research customers
    and can also be purchased directly at http://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/smart-meters-industry

    Further Key findings from the study suggest:

    • Global smart meter shipments were estimated to be 59.6 million units in 2012, which is expected to reach 165.5 million units by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 9.8% from 2014 to 2020
    • Residential applications accounted for 82.6% of overall shipments in 2012, and are expected to remain the largest segment in terms of volume over the next six years. This segment is also expected to be the fastest growing, at an estimated CAGR of 10.0% from 2014 to 2020. However, in terms of revenue, they accounted for significantly smaller market share in 2012. This can be primarily attributed to high technical requirements and selling prices of industrial and commercial smart meters.
    • Asia Pacific is expected to be the largest regional market in terms of volume and revenue over the forecast period, and accounted for 49.2% of ove

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LNG Exports - Positive Developments

    by chris_cs16 Apr 9, 2014 12:08 PM
    chris_cs16 chris_cs16 Apr 9, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    Swift is looking to JV its Fasken wells with a partner looking at future LNG export needs. Today's developments should help move the negotiations forward and provide more value to those future wells.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • API President and CEO Jack Gerard applauded today’s vote on legislation to fast track U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The measure, H.R. 6, was approved by the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power.

    “Today’s vote is just the latest signal that momentum for action on natural gas exports is stronger than ever,” said Gerard. “In the last few weeks, new proposals have won bipartisan support in both the House and Senate, and we are optimistic that members will come together on efforts to harness the full economic and strategic power of America’s energy exports. The U.S. is the world’s top producer of natural gas, and allies around the globe are looking to America for leadership on energy issues. Now is the time to tear down our own bureaucratic hurdles to trade, create thousands of new American jobs, and strengthen our position as an energy superpower.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 chris_cs16 Feb 21, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    From a poster on the Investorhub site:

    I spoke directly to the Secretary, Mr Dahanayake yesterday. I asked him if they are going to resume posting quarterly earnings results. He said they will. I suggested that they might put out a PR letting investors know.

    He prefers to comment directly to shareholders on the phone rather than by e-mail. After getting nowhere with Barry, this is refreshing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 chris_cs16 Feb 20, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    It looks like there is a large seller out there that is unloading stock. Tough to know how much he has left. Fundamentals remain strong and the company's back on the regular reporting track. Next release should be out in May against a favorable prior year comp.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 chris_cs16 Feb 18, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    With the resumption of quarterly reporting and continued strong performance, I don't see how this company continues to be valued at a P/E of less than 1, excluding cash.

    I look forward to tomorrow's reaction and will be looking to pick up some more shares in the morning.

    Big news for these guys, and big news for shareholders!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • chris_cs16 chris_cs16 Feb 10, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    AYSI financials are now updated on Yahoo.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

SARA
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