Companies that are being bought by Ackman and Icahn are well-diagnosed investments in future earnings. Big boys' money is the same as yours - green - just they have more of it. They can have a few articles printed up to say "you" should be careful. While "they" do the opposite and buy your shares from you.
Alas, these articles have been coming out since FNMA was $1. My favorite came from the bow-tie guy on MF who said he "couldn't sleep at night" with FNMA in his portfolio. LOL.
Okay Tommer - Sorry, but I do have to ignore you now. Too bad, b/c I think your heart is in the right place, and your position as long.
Just why would you say you know something is coming out over the weekend when you either were misled or worse made it up.
Commons are gaining most from the delay since they went "net-positive". We were waiting for net-zero, and that came and went.
Ergo, when (not if) the 10% dividend reverts and the sweep is nulled, the overage benefit will not go to back-dividends for preferreds, but to the common-side (which of course is how US would have it). Their remaining sr. pfd. balance dwindles with every quarter as the excess goes against the remaining balance - which of course is interest on interest - at a usurous rate to boot.
After this quarter, the balance, which was 30-60B (depending on when the draw is counted vs. payment vs. interest charged - see it was a large balance and the payment dates DO matter). The balance, after this quarter will be 15 to 45 and after next, 0 to 30.
Deal will need to be brokered. Congress will not act, but then again, neither will FHFA. It's a logjam. COMMONS get the benefit.
I agree wholeheartedly, this was a holdback day. The commons won't be 4.30s next week.
What is your news?
Hi Tommer -
Kind of doubt it, but you never know. Someone put a light under the preferreds, that is for sure, for sure. The common was stale, that is for sure. In my estimation, the preferreds ($33B worth) are what the real-big-boys have been after all along.
I think you were in the Irish banks when I was a while back. Seen you around...
Seriously, though, got any more hints? Did you see Ackman and Icahn and Lew having lunch?
Thanks for the response, and yes, all this makes sense.
People do dumb things, is right.
Reactions by HF to the Congress blustering about wind-down and receivership were overblown. Ackman & Co. doesn't blink, and in fact, buys more. They find forward-contract sellers even to mask their purchases. Ackman isn't crazy and not stupid.
Why then are people selling into any "weakness". IMO, they are not. It may appear the price is going down, but the low volume periods are just shuffling the cards until the dealer tips them.
FWIW, I think you are incorrect about whether there will be another drop below $4. It hasn't held below $4 for more than a month and those periods where it was below $4 are shortening. The wind is at our backs here. Going into earnings, in the latter part of July, gives very little chance for a sabre rattle - these guys are not in town and they aren't planning meetings. Nada.
The FHFA and PMI issue was a show that PMI folks have some work to do. Big banks are reeling from their billions in payments. It's dawning on people that keeping FnF is the only way to go. Tea-party don't like it. Corker may not like it. The end game is not so near, but then again, the new earnings and move into the latter half of 2014 will make things a little more clearer.
FnF are ready for the next stage. BTW, I have a lot of preferreds, too, but common will do better for a time... because the benefits all are accruing to common of the longer wait.
You nailed it. Volume was starting to ebb, and it has now gone out with the tide. Level 2 needs to fill up for them to run it one or the other way.
Ratcheted up to 4.60 and down to 4.20 and now at 4.40 level.
IMO, this will be the MO for the next two weeks (pre-earnings)
Lulls in the action (and we might have one here)
But, the moves up will be drastic and down too. But the trend will be 40 cents upside each time. Whether you want to play the game and sell at $5 and buy back at 4.65 or 4.70 is up to you.
Have fun! Keep a bundle in safe-keeping.
Simple question... trying to parse through what you are saying...
"I'm expecting to see them get more aggressive about it in the next few months; whether that will affect PPS this time I don't know, but don't be surprised to see a dive again. "
Who is going to get more aggressive? Congress? To what end?
You seem to think they will get more aggressive and this level of aggressiveness will cause a dive in the PPS.
I completely disagree.
They won't get aggressive at all. And, since this is the only thing that causes a "dive" in the PPS, I don't see this happening. Not to below $4. It will be over $5 in 2 weeks (earnings).
2 weeks... at most 3 weeks.
Props to vulture. Got awfully quiet awfully fast. FWIW, this is to let retail think about taking a "profit" of 10%. Go ahead and think about it and give a few shares to the big boys. That's what they want.
The question is: When will the next wave of buying commence.
Does anyone think Ackman has left the building? Or, any of his sidekicks?
House Democrats have no Tea Party support. Let's see if said "new bill" gets a committee vote, then a floor vote, then approval before November. Let me know when it comes to committee and we can talk about them "getting more aggressive" when they reconvene in January, 2015. Not to be a hard-guy, but remember Maxine Waters has a bill, and a friend of ours, Capuano had a bill to roll-back the interest to 5%. Have these gone any where?
The Dems' bills have no chance and neither does Hensarling's self-impaled PATH Act bill.
It's summer and none of these bills go anywhere.
Then it will be campaign season.
Then it will be Holidays
Then it will be 2015
Then, we start all over again, except FnF will have repaid another 40B.
PS There are no sellers, right?! Who bought on the premise that the govt. will lose and shareholders will when in the past 6 months and has anything come along that dispells that thesis?
No, just a normal gasp / sigh. Traders need to figure out what level to take it.
Same ole stuff.
If they take it to 4.60 or 4.70, all the NEW buyers continue to buy / add. New buyers recognize the trend.
They can't take it down (would have liked to) lower than 4.20 or so.
Gone is the chance to remove MARGIN buyers. They are coming back, and so are funds.
Moving up into earnings. I see nothing to stop / derail the move north - No congress bill activity forthcoming. Only court rom and earnings.
Earnings will again be very positive.
IMO, They use them to arb against preferred and also against each other. When they reach parity, they have run out of FMCC and buy those and short FNMA... the prices move closer together. A good opp to sell FMCC and buy FNMA. When they are the 'normal' 10 cent spread, reverse that trade. 10 cents is good money, with same position (ostensibly).
Yes. Some indication that Lew is not Geithner and maybe, just maybe he has a plan that includes a re-born FnF. Government guys don't know about safe-harbor statements. LOL.
Irrational exuberance? But why against biotechs? I think she should look more at the tax code issues - and how America is losing out b/c Europe and other places are much more favorable. Lost jobs. Lost tax revenue. Oh well. She can't solve that problem, so she has to say something. She couldn't diss banks or autos or high-tech, so she picked biotechs.
What she doesn't care to talk about are ones that have a very good chance of getting bought by a Euro company or one with a dwindling pipeline.
Dendreon has been on everyone's target list for a long, long time. Maybe the stars have aligned.
Don't see this going below $2.00, so the risk/reward is on the long side.
Be patient - like a week or month or two.
Closed yesterday 2.17, which (IMO) is the low end of the recent range. We shall see!
1.5M shares traded.
Currently, 103k shares on the BID at 2.19
The opportunity to drive it to the low-end of the range may have come and gone.
FWIW, the quiet from management is intriguing.
Ooops now 80k on the bid at 2.20
Moving up... GL Longs
2.18 to 2.40 range and touched bottom. Picked up more at 2.17.
Does anyone see it breaking $2.00 with prospects looming?
That is the logic. See how it plays out, but I like the upside vs. downside.
P3 trials cost money. Maybe not so much, if done in China, for a Chinese-specific or - relevant disease. Are they ready for a P3 / Fast-track? Wondering what will move this stock - if anything?!
Haven't been following, but didn't know they had a P2 going... insights?