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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

chrisceeaustin 90 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Jan 26, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Cumulative effect

    by chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 3:56 PM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 16, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    still no one has addressed the central point of my post. what happens in five years, or even two years, when the number of ng trucks has doubled, tripled or quadrupled? What do revs and profits look like then?

    The point is, clne near lowest stock price while on the cusp of making profits, consistently (they have shown quarterly profits not that long ago, 2012 or 13 I believe).

    And do y'all really believe CLNE has 80% of the market right now? Is that for heavy duty class 8? I can certainly believe it for the other classes. They dominate.

  • Reply to

    Cumulative effect

    by chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 3:56 PM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 16, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    thank you for the actually interesting post. If the East Coast gets into ng transport as much as you predict, then CLNE will be rolling dough and business. You don't think they CAN'T build ng stations at places with pipe? How many ng stations in America are using piped in ng?

    I am sure there are reasons why clne does not use piped in ng yet. probably has to do with costs, flexibility, comparative advantages of the company, etc. And the fact that they wanted to locate at certain very particular places to serve contracted clients.

  • Reply to

    Cumulative effect

    by chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 3:56 PM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 16, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    give me some useful info, please. sincerely, not just reacting to your reaction.

  • Reply to

    Cumulative effect

    by chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 3:56 PM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    for the record, you are on ignore, but I decided to read this post of yours. I said "likely" not "mostly". Stations are being built so quickly right now, I have no idea what the ratio is. Texas seems to be really buying into ng ...

  • chrisceeaustin by chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    Difference between WPRT and CLNE. WPRT may sell 10,000 NG trucks every year (in USA, not counting China), and its profits do not go up. If they sell 10K each year, after five years, there are 50,000 more NG trucks on the road that need to fuel up, likely at CLNE stations. CLNE profits go zoom. It is this cumulative effect on which I am betting my cash on, and not so much the WPRT game, until China kicks in big for WPRT, which may be soon. I am in and out of WPRT, and I am mostly in CLNE. I had sold CLNE at a higher price and hopped back in recently.

  • Reply to

    clne

    by robertfago Feb 12, 2015 10:22 AM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    Good Lord, listener, what are you doing? Now is not the time to short this thing. There is a risk of CLNE going quickly to $7.00. Nearly 16 million shares short, plus there are no shares left to short? If just a million shares are covered today and Monday.....

  • Reply to

    clne

    by robertfago Feb 12, 2015 10:22 AM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Hard to know how much the Mansfield and NG Advantage programs add to bottom line. And with the VETC kicking in Q4, I think there is a possibility that they show a profit in Q4.

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by pressctrl_alt_del Feb 12, 2015 1:42 PM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 7:22 AM Flag

    so, only a million shares (NET!) covered below 4.50. This means likely a few hundred thousand added shorts and well over a million covered at the low. Leaving nearly 16 million shorts still to cover. Let's say another million shares, net, covered in the first 13 days of February. Leaving nearly 15 million shares to cover. The stock price has risen from about 4.15 or so to 5.30 or so with the first couple millions shares covered. Millions of shares will likely cover in the coming weeks anticipating earnings and more importantly guidance.

  • Reply to

    NG Advantage - Pembrooke Station and Milton Station

    by whassup44 Feb 11, 2015 11:07 AM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 13, 2015 7:13 AM Flag

    5500 vehicles is enormous and the gallons from those vehicles will continue ramp up in Q4 2014 and beyond. UPS just announced several new stations in western PA. Do you think this helps CLNE?

    It certainly expands adoption, and those trucks may need to fill up outside of HQ.

    As for stock price, I do believe shorts are waiting for earnings to cover -- lack of volume; they cannot have covered much, the evidence being the tiny volume. Of course if earnings are good, then there may be some more squeezing.

  • Reply to

    NG Advantage - Pembrooke Station and Milton Station

    by whassup44 Feb 11, 2015 11:07 AM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 12, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    great research, whassup. You say 350 million gallons for 2015, versus an assumed 250 million for 2014. That is of course a 40% increase. Do you believe there will be a 40% increase in revenues? And if so, does that mean an increase in gross margin as economies of scale seem to be much greater.

  • Reply to

    clne

    by robertfago Feb 12, 2015 10:22 AM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 12, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    Robert, I have nothing against shorters. The situation with CLNE is interesting because of the tremendous number of shares short and the low stock price and the precipice of actual profits. All at the same time.

  • Reply to

    question about 2015 earnings

    by chrisceeaustin Feb 11, 2015 7:40 AM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 11, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    yahoo says 2.77 in 2014 and then 4.52 in 2015. Earnings. It's a jump.

  • Reply to

    VETC

    by whassup44 Jan 13, 2015 5:35 PM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 11, 2015 8:50 AM Flag

    Does the depreciation "benefit" -- lack of depreciation costs -- go on beyond Q4? Still trying to understand

  • chrisceeaustin by chrisceeaustin Feb 11, 2015 7:40 AM Flag

    why do earnings estimates for 2015 quarters jump to 70 and 80 cents or so? Is FSLR expanding their production and solar project completion?

  • Reply to

    VETC

    by whassup44 Jan 13, 2015 5:35 PM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 10, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    thank you, whassup. yes, that depreciation issue has been confusing for me -- how to guesstimate it....

  • Reply to

    VETC

    by whassup44 Jan 13, 2015 5:35 PM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 10, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    whassup, do you believe the $68 million goes to the bottom line? Thanks for your response.

  • Reply to

    Might get back in

    by listener2307 Feb 4, 2015 11:45 AM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 10, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Seems like the LNG verdict is still out. From what I read, the big companies like Ryder, etc., seem to continue to expand their LNG fleets. Am I wrong on this? thx.

  • chrisceeaustin by chrisceeaustin Feb 10, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    Even if they cover a couple hundred thousand shares a day, and sellers keep rolling in, it will form a base at 5 dollars. Contrary to belief, you can't use the entire volume of a day's trades to cover. That would make the stock double of triple in value.

    Anyhow, I believe longs may feel comfortable here. I believe the diversification efforts on part of mgmt have really helped to ensure that the sales continue to grow at 20% per annum.

    I really like the Mansfield combo; I like the purchase of that company whose name slips my mind right now; and I like the renewable natural gas moves, especially their selling the plant and concentrating on distribution, their strong suit.

    What were the estimates for Q4? A profit? I see estimates moved up over the last week. What about the whispers?

  • Reply to

    $10/share earnings

    by ijwbhh Feb 6, 2015 7:59 AM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 6, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    Also Hawaiian Airlines' forward p/e is also very low. Why is that?

  • Reply to

    $10/share earnings

    by ijwbhh Feb 6, 2015 7:59 AM
    chrisceeaustin chrisceeaustin Feb 6, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    What is the catch here? Why is the forward p/e so low?

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