still no one has addressed the central point of my post. what happens in five years, or even two years, when the number of ng trucks has doubled, tripled or quadrupled? What do revs and profits look like then?
The point is, clne near lowest stock price while on the cusp of making profits, consistently (they have shown quarterly profits not that long ago, 2012 or 13 I believe).
And do y'all really believe CLNE has 80% of the market right now? Is that for heavy duty class 8? I can certainly believe it for the other classes. They dominate.
thank you for the actually interesting post. If the East Coast gets into ng transport as much as you predict, then CLNE will be rolling dough and business. You don't think they CAN'T build ng stations at places with pipe? How many ng stations in America are using piped in ng?
I am sure there are reasons why clne does not use piped in ng yet. probably has to do with costs, flexibility, comparative advantages of the company, etc. And the fact that they wanted to locate at certain very particular places to serve contracted clients.
for the record, you are on ignore, but I decided to read this post of yours. I said "likely" not "mostly". Stations are being built so quickly right now, I have no idea what the ratio is. Texas seems to be really buying into ng ...
Difference between WPRT and CLNE. WPRT may sell 10,000 NG trucks every year (in USA, not counting China), and its profits do not go up. If they sell 10K each year, after five years, there are 50,000 more NG trucks on the road that need to fuel up, likely at CLNE stations. CLNE profits go zoom. It is this cumulative effect on which I am betting my cash on, and not so much the WPRT game, until China kicks in big for WPRT, which may be soon. I am in and out of WPRT, and I am mostly in CLNE. I had sold CLNE at a higher price and hopped back in recently.
Good Lord, listener, what are you doing? Now is not the time to short this thing. There is a risk of CLNE going quickly to $7.00. Nearly 16 million shares short, plus there are no shares left to short? If just a million shares are covered today and Monday.....
Hard to know how much the Mansfield and NG Advantage programs add to bottom line. And with the VETC kicking in Q4, I think there is a possibility that they show a profit in Q4.
so, only a million shares (NET!) covered below 4.50. This means likely a few hundred thousand added shorts and well over a million covered at the low. Leaving nearly 16 million shorts still to cover. Let's say another million shares, net, covered in the first 13 days of February. Leaving nearly 15 million shares to cover. The stock price has risen from about 4.15 or so to 5.30 or so with the first couple millions shares covered. Millions of shares will likely cover in the coming weeks anticipating earnings and more importantly guidance.
5500 vehicles is enormous and the gallons from those vehicles will continue ramp up in Q4 2014 and beyond. UPS just announced several new stations in western PA. Do you think this helps CLNE?
It certainly expands adoption, and those trucks may need to fill up outside of HQ.
As for stock price, I do believe shorts are waiting for earnings to cover -- lack of volume; they cannot have covered much, the evidence being the tiny volume. Of course if earnings are good, then there may be some more squeezing.
great research, whassup. You say 350 million gallons for 2015, versus an assumed 250 million for 2014. That is of course a 40% increase. Do you believe there will be a 40% increase in revenues? And if so, does that mean an increase in gross margin as economies of scale seem to be much greater.
Robert, I have nothing against shorters. The situation with CLNE is interesting because of the tremendous number of shares short and the low stock price and the precipice of actual profits. All at the same time.
Seems like the LNG verdict is still out. From what I read, the big companies like Ryder, etc., seem to continue to expand their LNG fleets. Am I wrong on this? thx.
Even if they cover a couple hundred thousand shares a day, and sellers keep rolling in, it will form a base at 5 dollars. Contrary to belief, you can't use the entire volume of a day's trades to cover. That would make the stock double of triple in value.
Anyhow, I believe longs may feel comfortable here. I believe the diversification efforts on part of mgmt have really helped to ensure that the sales continue to grow at 20% per annum.
I really like the Mansfield combo; I like the purchase of that company whose name slips my mind right now; and I like the renewable natural gas moves, especially their selling the plant and concentrating on distribution, their strong suit.
What were the estimates for Q4? A profit? I see estimates moved up over the last week. What about the whispers?