Amgen bought Onyx - 1 drug for 1 oncology indication - for $10B. CELG is buying RCPT - 3 drugs, one in a PH3 trial - for $7B. CLDX has 5 drugs in 11 different trials for 9 indications. Right now, the takeover price could be anything. Once Rintega gets approved, I think we get a $10B floor. About $115/sh. But before Rintega gets approved, we will see updates on Varli and CDX-301. If those updates are positive, my floor rises commensurately. GLTA - even you, Dorris. God knows you'll need it.
Educate me - tell me about the time the FDA approved a drug for which there was no IND, NDA or ANDA. Just one will be fine. Spend some time googling, I can wait. Especially since I already know the answer.
Wednesday's CLDX presentation at the Jeffries conference needs to be very simple and direct: "We plan to submit the NDA for Rintega on (fill in the date)."
Rest assured, we go up from here, albeit with some interim gymnastics. Adam Feuerstein doesn't use exclamation marks very often, but he used one - ONE - in his ASCO recap this am. It was for CLDX.
On 23 July 2014, PBYI went from about $1.9B mkt cap to about $7.5B overnight, based on PH3 results for one drug, for one oncology indication, with nothing else in the pipeline. It closed at $59.03 on 22 July, and opened at $217 on 23 July. Can CLDX, with 5 drugs in 11? different trials, do better than that? Only Dorris knows for sure.
Did some admittedly superficial DD on the “competition”:
CLDX, to start with. From $26/sh, I think CLDX could do ten bags over the next 24 months. Rintega and Glemba work. If 1401 or 301 work, we get rich. If Varli works, we get filthy rich.
INCY: highly regarded, potential buy-out candidate. But at a mkt cap of $18B, the serious money has already been made. Maybe you get 40% more in the next 24 months, certainly not bad.
JUNO ($4.1B Mkt Cap) and KITE ($2.5B): Hope their CAR-T technology is significantly different from that used by Novartis in a recent trial – which failed. JUNO doesn’t have anything anywhere near a PH3 trial. KITE is even further behind. A home run with these will require a perfect pitch, a huge swing and a tiny park with short walls, in a game that won’t be played for 3 or 4 more seasons. BUT IF THEY WORK, there is multi-bag potential.
BMRN: A lot like INCY, a safer, mature investment, but at $19.5B, the multi-bag upside potential has already been realized.
PBYI: Really? $6.75B for one drug, for one oncology indication? and it doesn’t work especially well (it will probably still get FDA approval, around the same time as Rintega). Dorris, you should be trolling these cats. PBYI longs would be wise to roll their profits into CLDX.
BLUE-one drug for one oncology indication, in PH2 trials, with good, but not stellar, results. How in the world does this command a $5.5B mkt cap?
NWBO and ACAD: Too speculative for my tastes. I wish you luck with these-you’ll need it.
So how come CLDX isn’t on more “Best Biotech” or “Potential Buy-out” lists? I don’t know. Why wasn’t PBYI on everybody’s radar before it went ballistic in Jul 2014?