The Company's official release on Friday is a highly confidence-inspiring document in its' detail. This business model and its capital efficiency truly is something to behold. Looking to the 2016 estimate of Silver Equivalent Ounces of 43 million makes you realize that the only meaningful BIG downside risk is the international industrial Supply-Demand profile for Silver in the next few years. And, in addition, frankly it is hard to believe - especially considering the growing US + EU debt situation - that Silver will somehow collapse in a meaningful way. What I love about this Company is the diversification of their Silver Steams across multiple partnerships around the world and their healthy, and growing, cash position which allows them to move quickly on potential additional silver stream partnerships. I see this business model as one which will try to be replicated, but these guys are really pioneers. If this stock doesn't hit $50 in 12 months, or $75 in 3 years, two things will have happenned... #1 the US + EU will have found a miraculous solution to their debt situation which doesn't involve inflating their currencies or #2 the global economy and demand for silver will have cratered to un-imaginable levels. Just my thoughts. Of course I could be very wrong somehow but I see this situation as worth 5% of net investment risk capital.
This may oversimplify things just a bit.... but downgrades come when the institutions want to get in, and upgrades come when the institutions want to get out. Upgrades/downgrades are published for retail investors whom institutions count on to take the OTHER side of the trades/positions that they want to execute. Time to begin building a position in AMD. For example, if you plan to put, for example, $100,000 in money into AMD, you should probably have about half the position on now... and then add cautiously over the next two months. May see $14 and change but not very likely.
Pretty clear to me what will happen after tomorrow. Most of the open interest in the February options is on the put side. (For example... 35,614 outstanding contracts on the Feb $20put) Since institutions are overwhelmingly the option writers in the market they are expecting that they will be able to keep the premiums they are collecting when the stock trades above $20 OR at worst they will end up buying the stock at $20 and will very quickly trade to move the stock above $20. NET... institutions want to see this stock move higher.... and it will. They may try to scare a few more folks out of the stock by taking it into the high $16s before the end of tomorrow... but it won't trade below $18 again after the earnings call tomorrow at 5.
That's a good solid name behind the recommendation. NBR should get by $30 this week. Definitely feels as if this sector has bottomed, even if oil trades into the high $40s. Hard to beat NBR's valuation at these levels. I see NBR between $32 and $34 by options expiration in February.
If we can use this evening's good news on AMD to push the stock through 21.88 tomorrow then its off to the races for next week. My guess is that we won't quite get there tomorrow but we will on Monday AM.
Regarding their Friday announcement, Goldman is simply putting information out in the marketplace that will create temporary weakness in the market for INTC, AMD, etc. to allow their traders to build larger positions before all of these technology names take off during the 6 weeks beginning on November 1. Typical game to shake out weaker hands.
JNJ is buying the Pfizer consumer brands, including Listerine and Visine, among others... deal will close soon. Announced several months ago.
Thank you, very well reasoned. Especially your point on fear giving way to reason over the weekend. I think we've seen the worst, though I wouldn't be shocked if we dipped to maybe $19.60 at some point Monday or Tuesday. Then I think we're on our way to $25 by mid to late November... but it may be two weeks before we see $23 again in the short term.