Do your homework, dude. From the Company's press release announcing the 4th quarter earnings for 2015:
The Golar Maria is expected to commence its 5 year drydock on or near the March 12 for an approximate 28 day period. In addition the Golar Igloo will not receive hire for its annual winter downtime period during January and February 2016. Both these events will have a negative impact on 1Q operating earnings, as will the impact of 1Q being one day shorter, but otherwise earnings for 1Q are expected to be approximately in line with 4Q.
Who care? Stock went up again today. Now trading over $8 ex-divy!!!
Sure, events subsequent to the filing of the 10Q show your analysis is misguided and.or irrelevant.
Proof is in the pudding, The stock has gone UP since the filing, no? That is the only thing that matters. Must be really galling to the shorts that the stock ignores the "wisdom" of their "thesis: and continues to march higher ex-divy.
Drop off is seasonal. Endo CEO said as much in his conference call. Last year BSTC earnings went from .32 in the 1st quarter to .24 in the 2d. Prior year, drop off went from .11 to .08 between 1st and 2d quarter. Don't think it's a big deal. Consensus is for .35 in 2d quarter, which roughly corresponds to your 10% cut. If that is correct, we will have made .74 in first two quarters of 2016 vs..56 the year before. I'd be delighted with a 33% year over year increase.
But your correct that the much more important factor is expansion of XIAFLEX treatment indications, especially for the cellulite application, for which there would be a huge market. The human lipoma trial results should be out next month. If that goes well, it's a precursor of the outcome of the cellulite trial Endo is now running, as
a beneficial reduction in the size of human lipomas would suggest XIAFLEX should also reduce fatty cellulite buildups.
Let's hope the human lipoma trial went well. Wegman's recent sales of thousands of shares, however, is a bit concerning given that they are coming just before release of the those trial results. Precursor of a bad outcome? I hope not.
It's not true.
What is true is that Medallion Bank had net earnings of $23,237,000 in 2015 and was valued at only $154,364,000 on MFIN's books at year end, less than seven times earnings. Way UNDERVALUED imo.
The Bank paid out only $18,000,000 in dividends to MFIN during 2015 and retained the rest. Had it paid out another $3 to $5 million more in dividends, MFIN's earnings would have gone up that much more in 2015. Lots of leeway here either to expand dividends and increase parent's earnings or retain earnings for the sub's growth.
What also is true is that MFIN's recent 9% notes offering was oversubscribed and the Bank has an investment grade rating of A+.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Methinks bid will be brewing over the weekend. Maybe should use the plural.Having cashed in big time when they sold Par to Endo, the Par people may be tempted to buy their business back at a huge discount and get the rest of Endo's acquisitions for free.
Let's lick da end of my pencil and do some basic figerin: 9% interest spent on da TAXI notes vs. 13.66% current dividend yield erased on any TAXI common shares bought back. Hmmm! Recalling my grammar school math, seems to me da funds spent on buying da 13.66% TAXI common will circle around at a 4.66% faster rate than the funds spent paying interest on the 9% TAXI notes and arrive at the destination delivering more money to--what's it now, I forget--oh, yes, MFIN's pocket. (Sorry bout da analogy but da nuns always taught me math using cars and planes traveling at x speed vs. another travelling in a differnt direction at y speed, etc. Always thought that was weird but I have to revert back to that to do da math, and it kinda makes sense to me since its TAXI were talking about, oops, I mean MFIN. (Best part bout grammar school math was learning how to calculate my Little League batting average! See math occasionally does have some practical usage!)
Now that math problem creates da need for yet another one! Let's calculate the impact of da transaction on TAXI's, oops, MFIN's book value. Shucks, that's just too complicated for an old fart like me. Probably would require that "new math" stuff used to write up our assets. In any event, I'm pretty sure da impact is to increase da book value by a significant % since the 4.66% net yield on da deal is more than half of the 9% notes used to make it happen. Magic is as magic does, no?
I do believe that da shorts are going to have competition from TAXI, oops MFIN, when they go to buy back the common, and that we're to need another oversubscribed notes offering in da very near future.
And, of course, the funds from the recent OVERSUBSCRIBED 9% notes offering will NOT be deployed in the medallion business. Hopefully, at least some of it will be used to buy back more of the common, shrink the float and strangle the shorts.
Your use of ALL CAPS SCARE TACTICS in lieu of reasoned analysis shows your clueless. Fact is Company has no problem at all covering the interest on the debt. Debt is only a bit more than four times its annual EBIDTA. Take the scare scam elsewhere.
Wow, there is a bid for 18,900 shares at 7.70! It's either some fried short trying to cover before its losses get worse or a savvy institutional investor trying to lock up a 13+% divy before it goes lower.
If you want to look at it THAT way, look at the nice "interest margin" they get on that trade: divy rate started today at nearly 14% vs. 9%. Company should be buying the stock with both hands, shrinking the float and strangling the shorts!
The HUGE hit the stock price has taken in response to the company's reduced guidance certainly makes it a much more "affordable" takeover target now. TPG and others with deep pockets have to be taking a hard long at acquiring Endo at the current bargain basement price. Company offers an interesting entry into the generics field, where it has many new drugs about to hit the market, as well as a potential "blockbuster" drug in Xiaflex.
It is currently in a 2b trial for treatment of cellulite in women. If the trial proves to be as successful as its 2a trial and that cosmetic indication proves to be a go, stock will rocket as the demand for the product would be enormous worldwide.
My Ameritrade summary for Medallion is showing short interest at 42% of the float! Change of ticker symbol underscores the sillyness of the shorts' thesis for being short and should gradually drive the stock into double digits where it belongs given the ever-increasing book value that is now almost eleven and a half dollars per share.
Anyone using ALL CAPS SCARE TACTICS is showing their desperation. ENDP's cover ratio is just fine and well within its debt covenants.
I've been watching this stock for a few months now, trading in and out of it for a quick profit. With the 8% pounding it took today over the INSY news, ENDP may have bottomed. If today was not the final bottom, I suspect it is very close. Stock has been discounting a thousand years of purgatory, as it's been bombarded with bad news relentlessly. In any event, today I decided to hold my nose, jump into the pool and take a long-term position in my retirement account. I picked up 5000 shares at 26.10 and another 5000 at 25.83.
People seem to have forgotten that this company has a lot of growth potential. Xiaflex alone is going to be HUGE growth driver for Endo over the next few years. Right now, Xiaflex is FDA- approved only for two, rather limited, conditions: Dupuytren's contracture and Peyronie's disease. Its most potentially profitable indications have yet to be proved up. For example, Endo recently started a Phase 2B clinical trial of Xiaflex for treatment of cellulite. If it is successful, women from around the world will be lining up to seek reduction or elimination of this unsightly condition. Endo also has opted into Xiaflex for lateral hip fat treatment as well, which would be another huge cosmetic market. And that's not all: uterine fibroids, plantar fibromatosis, adhesive capsulitis, human and canine lipomas and many other conditions are potentially treatable with Xiaflex, which has demonstrated ability to treat both collagen-related conditions and to reduce or eliminate fatty buildups in many areas of the body.
Given the hysteria surrounding this stock, people seem to have forgotten or overlooked the growth potential of Xiaflex and other Endo products. I'm hopeful that, if Endo can generate around $1 a share in adjusted earnings for its first quarter, people will finally recognize that this company is not going bankrupt tomorrow and will be generating oodles of free cash flow over the coming years. In any event, I'm all in right now,