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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

chriswalshlawstaff 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 21, 2016 11:33 PM Member since: Nov 6, 2012
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  • Reply to

    ENDO -- FDA -- BSTC

    by amfads Apr 1, 2016 11:33 AM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Apr 21, 2016 11:33 PM Flag

    What, pray tell, are you talking about?

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Apr 12, 2016 2:52 AM Flag

    I've been watching this stock for a few months now, trading in and out of it for a quick profit. With the 8% pounding it took today over the INSY news, ENDP may have bottomed. If today was not the final bottom, I suspect it is very close. Stock has been discounting a thousand years of purgatory, as it's been bombarded with bad news relentlessly. In any event, today I decided to hold my nose, jump into the pool and take a long-term position in my retirement account. I picked up 5000 shares at 26.10 and another 5000 at 25.83.

    People seem to have forgotten that this company has a lot of growth potential. Xiaflex alone is going to be HUGE growth driver for Endo over the next few years. Right now, Xiaflex is FDA- approved only for two, rather limited, conditions: Dupuytren's contracture and Peyronie's disease. Its most potentially profitable indications have yet to be proved up. For example, Endo recently started a Phase 2B clinical trial of Xiaflex for treatment of cellulite. If it is successful, women from around the world will be lining up to seek reduction or elimination of this unsightly condition. Endo also has opted into Xiaflex for lateral hip fat treatment as well, which would be another huge cosmetic market. And that's not all: uterine fibroids, plantar fibromatosis, adhesive capsulitis, human and canine lipomas and many other conditions are potentially treatable with Xiaflex, which has demonstrated ability to treat both collagen-related conditions and to reduce or eliminate fatty buildups in many areas of the body.

    Given the hysteria surrounding this stock, people seem to have forgotten or overlooked the growth potential of Xiaflex and other Endo products. I'm hopeful that, if Endo can generate around $1 a share in adjusted earnings for its first quarter, people will finally recognize that this company is not going bankrupt tomorrow and will be generating oodles of free cash flow over the coming years. In any event, I'm all in right now,

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Apr 6, 2016 11:51 AM Flag

    Small drop in inventories is not going to change the bearish fundamentals much.

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Mar 30, 2016 2:55 PM Flag

    Not a bad trade, + $2.85 a share.

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Mar 24, 2016 1:46 PM Flag

    Good time to put on shorts, buy puts, clean out your long positions!

    COP is going lower next week!

  • Reply to

    It is clearer now than ever vrx

    by hello100isanybodyoutthere Mar 21, 2016 7:20 PM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Mar 21, 2016 9:51 PM Flag

    not much of a recommendation though, is it?

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Mar 21, 2016 11:26 AM Flag

    Company admits there are "material" discrepancies in its books. Until they are corrected, there really is no way to accurately project operational cash flow.

    Not short. And I suspect that VRX's assets are worth more than the stock price. But I'm in the "wait and see" camp at the moment.

  • Company admits its books are wrong. Until we get clarity on the REAL numbers, no one to accurately say what operating cash flow is. Company's products sure as heck aren't getting any positive push from all the negative chatter about its finances.

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Mar 21, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Stock and crude are overbought. Oil should trade back to the mid-30s over next month.

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Mar 17, 2016 11:43 AM Flag

    Stock is trading at half the price of its assets.

  • Reply to

    Ackman's Plan

    by tannazs26 Mar 17, 2016 11:11 AM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Mar 17, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    Well, someone is bound to step up and buy ii! Say what you will about the current management, the value of the assets its acquired in recent years have not disappeared and are worth 2-3 times current stock price.

  • chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Mar 15, 2016 12:05 AM Flag

    Analyst Estimate is for 1.72 for 2016 and 2.29 for 2017, well over the 30% growth rate called for by a 30 pe. And I doubt that marketing of Xiaflex for any new indications are built into those numbers.

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Mar 14, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    4th quarter earnings were .36 fully diluted vs. .27 and beat expectations by .03
    Full year was 1.32 fully diluted vs. .66

  • If the medication passes the trial and gains FDA approval, it would be HUGE! HUGE! HUGE!

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Feb 29, 2016 11:44 PM Flag

    Company's additional accrual of $843 million for the mesh litigation amounts to an impact of $433 million after-tax. On an after-tax basis, litigation will cause a cash flow hit of $150-$250 million in 2016 and $325-$425 million in 2017. Seems like an awful lot, no? But compare it to the $2 billion in EBITDA Company will generate in 2016 and more in 2017. The rate of new case filings has decreased "substantially" so far in 2016, and the Company is hopeful the litigation will be wrapped up by 2017. This company is a cash cow, and these litigation costs, while substantial, are easily managed.

    Once Mr. Market crunches the numbers, I suspect he will conclude the spike down was overdone and will rally the stock back to the low 50 area soon. ENDP is a growth company now selling for a ridiculously low PE that is undeserved. I picked up 2000 shares in my trading account today at $42.25 and another 5000 in my IRA at an average cost of $40.50.

  • Reply to

    Vials sold

    by fatty_mcknuckles Feb 29, 2016 2:26 PM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Feb 29, 2016 10:26 PM Flag

    ENDP was way down b/c the company substantially increased its accrual for product liabilities related to the mesh litigation. Moody's then issued a press release saying this was a negative for its credit. By the way, the vial sales were 16,400 for the 4th quarter, up from 13,900 in the 3rd quarter.

  • chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Feb 18, 2016 10:10 PM Flag

    Don't understand where you get a $1 a share gain for the 4th quarter absent the impairment charge.

    I get 6 cents:

    4th qtr Operating Revenue was 123,275 million
    Expenses excluding the impairment charge was 161,391 miliion
    Net Operating Loss of 38,116 million
    Non-Operating income was 51,030 million, including 72,455 million in derivative gain less interest expense
    Net Income of 12,914 million excluding the impairment = about .06 a share on 211,255 shares

    This is consistent with company's presentation of a .06 "Adjusted Net Income" figure for the 4th quarter and .23 for the year.

  • Reply to

    Back In Again

    by chriswalshlawstaff Feb 9, 2016 4:25 PM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Feb 11, 2016 3:46 AM Flag

    Bailed again. Yeah, color me a Nervous Nellie! As I anticipated, Yellen's testimony prompted a brief rally.
    However, when it faded in the afternoon, I decided to take a tiny profit and go flat. The market does not appear to be ready to stage a tradable rally and seems to be headed down again after closing a downside gap on the daily chart. I suspect it's going much lower. And that means INVN probably has some more downside work to do. Good luck longs!

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Feb 9, 2016 4:25 PM Flag

    As I expected, the market environment has been brutal, and INVN has plunged down again. Still pessimistic on the market, but price is too tempting not to start accumulating again. In for 10,000 shares at 6.89. Maybe Yellen will do her "save the market" thing again tomorrow. We'll see.

  • Reply to

    Covered My Shorts

    by chriswalshlawstaff Feb 4, 2016 2:59 PM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Feb 4, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    As I expected, the stock made a new low for the day after the conference call. But it did not take out the low for the year. So the low may be in. Will depend on whether the low for oil is in., In any event,
    we're close enough to the low for the year, that I decided to cash my profits in. In trading, as in life, the perfect is often the enemy of the good. If you are always trying to buy the absolute low or sell the absolute high, you'll have a hard time being successful., I had a very good exit opportunity. I took it.
    I'm a happy camper. Not going to worry about a little extra I might be leaving on the table.

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