Reminds me of Bush on the aircraft carrier declaring victory in the Iraq War.
Tradmg at $44.75 as I write this, down $1.32.
Downtrend could actually start to accelerate as it forces liquidation of large long positions on the futures market. You can always count on markets to over-react.
Don't trade on hopeium or try to catch a falling knife. Just get out of the way and let the price of oil finds its own bottom without trying to guess it.
Added another 10,000 shares in my retirement account for 10.45.
Picked up 3000 shares at 10.49. Dunno why it's been getting pounded. Looks like revenue and earnings
are on a steady upswing.
There is no way to "know" that the current price actually is a "bottom" until AFTER THE FACT. You can only "know" one retrospectively, AFTER the price turns up.
You are, of course, entitled to GUESS that the price of oil "is at or near a bottom," as you already apparently have. But the smart play, the safe play, is to wait until the 30-day moving average of the price actually turns up from down. If you are too impatient to wait for that turn, my suggestion would be to use a 10-day or even 5-day moving average on which to base your conclusion that the "bottom" is in. The shorter-term moving averages tend not to be as trustworthy as the 30-day, but they at least are a better trading tool than just "guessing" that the "bottom" is in because the price has fallen "so far."
I hope your guess is right. But I suspect the Saudis want to "punish" the U.S. shale players by pushing the price even lower. We'll see.
fyi the wellhead price in the Bakken is under $40 now
trades at a significant discount to the WTI Crude which closed under $50 today
No. Buy Gold Miners for a more leveraged play on gold. In fact, buy Gold Miners which are highly leveraged=
Obviously someone is. There is a buyer for every seller. I'm still waiting for a turn in the price trend of crude, which remains down. Unfortunately, a price turn may not happen for quite awhile, and HK may get bought out for a song or go bk before that happens.
Trolls and your Masters, get ready for a nice run-up in gold. It's already begun. Time to buy dips.
and you KNOW this is a FACT because ?
how about providing a source for this "info" ?
So it's a wishful thinking analysis. For the sake of the longs, I hope you're right.
But we're down to 54.36 this morning.
How do you get to an average of $75 for 2015 for HK's unhedged oil when January crude is now trading at $55.75? Is this just wishful thinking or is there some real analysis behind the $75 number? If so, please
share your analysis.
I regret to say that, until the 20-day moving average of the price of oil or HK bonds turns up from down, there is no realistic basis for meaningful upside hope in the price of the common stock. It appears to be in a death spiral now. Trend of oil price will drive HK, and it's down.
There will be tremendous resistance to any upside in the stock as major institutional holders try to salvage what they can. Insider buying at this point is just wishful thinking in my opinion.
why are you putting political tripe like this on a investment message board
you ought to be grateful we are at ALL-TIME HIGHS in the stock market under Obama!
remember the total financial chaos he walked into?
Here's the real problem that keeps Floyd and the CFO up all night. The Company's "liquidity" consists MOSTLY of "undrawn capacity on its senior secured revolving credit facility" which is revised periodically. Cash on hand at the end of the 3rd quarter provided only $94.688,000 of the Company's $815,000,000 liquidity. The facility was increased by $350,000,000 in the last quarter due to the prove up of increased reserves. However, the value of those reserves, obviously, is tied to the price of oil itself. And oil prices were much higher when that capacity was last calculated.
As the price of oil plunges, the "capacity" of the credit facility on which HK's liquidity depends will shrink, not grow, going forward. The banks, after all, are not complete idiots. It would not surprise me at all if the banks' actually recalculated and revised the "capacity" of the credit facility long before the next scheduled review. I have no personal knowledge of the actual terms of the credit facility, but I have to believe it would give the banks the right to recalculate the "capacity" of the credit facility at any time based on the last known reserve numbers and current market prices for oil. In doing such a review, I assume that the impact of the company's hedges would have to be taken into account. also. But 20% of anticipated production is unhedged, and that is a big "hurt."
Now I do not know at what point the effect of shrinking borrowing capacity "chokes" " HK's liquidity--or what price of oil would do it. But that, to me, is THE real problem and a genuine concern going forward. HK needs to borrow MORE money every quarter to fund its drilling program. If HK had to shut down all "new" drilling and pay its expenses and debts with the revenues derived from existing wells only, I suspect it could survive for awhile as MOST of its non-bank debt is not due for many years. But that, to me, is the big problem going forward, and why Floyd is eliminating TMS drilling for now