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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

chriswalshlawstaff 34 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Nov 6, 2012
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  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Feb 29, 2016 11:44 PM Flag

    Company's additional accrual of $843 million for the mesh litigation amounts to an impact of $433 million after-tax. On an after-tax basis, litigation will cause a cash flow hit of $150-$250 million in 2016 and $325-$425 million in 2017. Seems like an awful lot, no? But compare it to the $2 billion in EBITDA Company will generate in 2016 and more in 2017. The rate of new case filings has decreased "substantially" so far in 2016, and the Company is hopeful the litigation will be wrapped up by 2017. This company is a cash cow, and these litigation costs, while substantial, are easily managed.

    Once Mr. Market crunches the numbers, I suspect he will conclude the spike down was overdone and will rally the stock back to the low 50 area soon. ENDP is a growth company now selling for a ridiculously low PE that is undeserved. I picked up 2000 shares in my trading account today at $42.25 and another 5000 in my IRA at an average cost of $40.50.

  • Reply to

    Page 11 of the Q1 2016 10-Q

    by marg_investor May 16, 2016 4:11 PM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff May 17, 2016 11:49 AM Flag

    Must be hard watching MFIN pay out its juicy dividend and proceed to move higher ex-divy.

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Mar 21, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Stock and crude are overbought. Oil should trade back to the mid-30s over next month.

  • chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff May 10, 2016 10:12 AM Flag

    Anyone using ALL CAPS SCARE TACTICS is showing their desperation. ENDP's cover ratio is just fine and well within its debt covenants.

  • chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff May 10, 2016 3:28 PM Flag

    Your use of ALL CAPS SCARE TACTICS in lieu of reasoned analysis shows your clueless. Fact is Company has no problem at all covering the interest on the debt. Debt is only a bit more than four times its annual EBIDTA. Take the scare scam elsewhere.

  • chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Mar 15, 2016 12:05 AM Flag

    Analyst Estimate is for 1.72 for 2016 and 2.29 for 2017, well over the 30% growth rate called for by a 30 pe. And I doubt that marketing of Xiaflex for any new indications are built into those numbers.

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Mar 21, 2016 11:26 AM Flag

    Company admits there are "material" discrepancies in its books. Until they are corrected, there really is no way to accurately project operational cash flow.

    Not short. And I suspect that VRX's assets are worth more than the stock price. But I'm in the "wait and see" camp at the moment.

  • Reply to

    my cash dividend quality first rate again

    by dbtunr May 10, 2016 11:14 AM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff May 10, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    If you want to look at it THAT way, look at the nice "interest margin" they get on that trade: divy rate started today at nearly 14% vs. 9%. Company should be buying the stock with both hands, shrinking the float and strangling the shorts!

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Mar 24, 2016 1:46 PM Flag

    Good time to put on shorts, buy puts, clean out your long positions!

    COP is going lower next week!

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff May 10, 2016 12:18 PM Flag

    No reason to even think about selling until it gets back up there! Should be at $11.50 and selling at least for book value.

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff Apr 12, 2016 2:52 AM Flag

    I've been watching this stock for a few months now, trading in and out of it for a quick profit. With the 8% pounding it took today over the INSY news, ENDP may have bottomed. If today was not the final bottom, I suspect it is very close. Stock has been discounting a thousand years of purgatory, as it's been bombarded with bad news relentlessly. In any event, today I decided to hold my nose, jump into the pool and take a long-term position in my retirement account. I picked up 5000 shares at 26.10 and another 5000 at 25.83.

    People seem to have forgotten that this company has a lot of growth potential. Xiaflex alone is going to be HUGE growth driver for Endo over the next few years. Right now, Xiaflex is FDA- approved only for two, rather limited, conditions: Dupuytren's contracture and Peyronie's disease. Its most potentially profitable indications have yet to be proved up. For example, Endo recently started a Phase 2B clinical trial of Xiaflex for treatment of cellulite. If it is successful, women from around the world will be lining up to seek reduction or elimination of this unsightly condition. Endo also has opted into Xiaflex for lateral hip fat treatment as well, which would be another huge cosmetic market. And that's not all: uterine fibroids, plantar fibromatosis, adhesive capsulitis, human and canine lipomas and many other conditions are potentially treatable with Xiaflex, which has demonstrated ability to treat both collagen-related conditions and to reduce or eliminate fatty buildups in many areas of the body.

    Given the hysteria surrounding this stock, people seem to have forgotten or overlooked the growth potential of Xiaflex and other Endo products. I'm hopeful that, if Endo can generate around $1 a share in adjusted earnings for its first quarter, people will finally recognize that this company is not going bankrupt tomorrow and will be generating oodles of free cash flow over the coming years. In any event, I'm all in right now,

  • chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff May 10, 2016 10:25 AM Flag

    My Ameritrade summary for Medallion is showing short interest at 42% of the float! Change of ticker symbol underscores the sillyness of the shorts' thesis for being short and should gradually drive the stock into double digits where it belongs given the ever-increasing book value that is now almost eleven and a half dollars per share.

  • chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff May 24, 2016 9:31 PM Flag

    Sure, events subsequent to the filing of the 10Q show your analysis is misguided and.or irrelevant.
    Proof is in the pudding, The stock has gone UP since the filing, no? That is the only thing that matters. Must be really galling to the shorts that the stock ignores the "wisdom" of their "thesis: and continues to march higher ex-divy.

  • chriswalshlawstaff by chriswalshlawstaff May 13, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    Methinks bid will be brewing over the weekend. Maybe should use the plural.Having cashed in big time when they sold Par to Endo, the Par people may be tempted to buy their business back at a huge discount and get the rest of Endo's acquisitions for free.

  • Reply to

    MFIN stock promoters and Uber Deniers:

    by gossagegordon May 13, 2016 3:32 PM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff May 15, 2016 2:38 AM Flag

    It's not true.

    What is true is that Medallion Bank had net earnings of $23,237,000 in 2015 and was valued at only $154,364,000 on MFIN's books at year end, less than seven times earnings. Way UNDERVALUED imo.
    The Bank paid out only $18,000,000 in dividends to MFIN during 2015 and retained the rest. Had it paid out another $3 to $5 million more in dividends, MFIN's earnings would have gone up that much more in 2015. Lots of leeway here either to expand dividends and increase parent's earnings or retain earnings for the sub's growth.

    What also is true is that MFIN's recent 9% notes offering was oversubscribed and the Bank has an investment grade rating of A+.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Vials sold

    by fatty_mcknuckles Feb 29, 2016 2:26 PM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Feb 29, 2016 10:26 PM Flag

    ENDP was way down b/c the company substantially increased its accrual for product liabilities related to the mesh litigation. Moody's then issued a press release saying this was a negative for its credit. By the way, the vial sales were 16,400 for the 4th quarter, up from 13,900 in the 3rd quarter.

  • Company admits its books are wrong. Until we get clarity on the REAL numbers, no one to accurately say what operating cash flow is. Company's products sure as heck aren't getting any positive push from all the negative chatter about its finances.

  • Reply to

    Ackman's Plan

    by tannazs26 Mar 17, 2016 11:11 AM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff Mar 17, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    Well, someone is bound to step up and buy ii! Say what you will about the current management, the value of the assets its acquired in recent years have not disappeared and are worth 2-3 times current stock price.

  • Reply to

    BSTC reports

    by jrad52 May 10, 2016 10:06 AM
    chriswalshlawstaff chriswalshlawstaff May 21, 2016 1:25 AM Flag

    Drop off is seasonal. Endo CEO said as much in his conference call. Last year BSTC earnings went from .32 in the 1st quarter to .24 in the 2d. Prior year, drop off went from .11 to .08 between 1st and 2d quarter. Don't think it's a big deal. Consensus is for .35 in 2d quarter, which roughly corresponds to your 10% cut. If that is correct, we will have made .74 in first two quarters of 2016 vs..56 the year before. I'd be delighted with a 33% year over year increase.

    But your correct that the much more important factor is expansion of XIAFLEX treatment indications, especially for the cellulite application, for which there would be a huge market. The human lipoma trial results should be out next month. If that goes well, it's a precursor of the outcome of the cellulite trial Endo is now running, as
    a beneficial reduction in the size of human lipomas would suggest XIAFLEX should also reduce fatty cellulite buildups.

    Let's hope the human lipoma trial went well. Wegman's recent sales of thousands of shares, however, is a bit concerning given that they are coming just before release of the those trial results. Precursor of a bad outcome? I hope not.

  • If the medication passes the trial and gains FDA approval, it would be HUGE! HUGE! HUGE!

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