The price is at or about 70% retrace from recent low to recent high. The current close at 4.08 today is at about the 70% retrace now. We will likely see at or about 20% to the upside from here, i.e., a run up to about 4.80. As long as the growth fundamentals hold, I see no reason for this not to happen.
Still I would argue that RRC has the top performance to date. Their recent super wet at 6,357 boe/day/38.1 Mmcfe per day with 65% being liquids tops anything so far in the Marcellus and the wet Utica. There are a couple of others now being stimulated in the same area that could be equivalent. Not mentioned much is the performance of the Upper Devonian drilled to date, as reported by RRC as well as CNX, as well as the new wells on existing pads. Results are impressive, and the kicker is hundreds of thousands being realized in savings due to the pad and infrastructure already in place. Pit airport could be interesting. CNX/NBL should be drilling in late 2nd half of this year/early 2015. That would be a little north of the old McDonald field, but close. Thinking the Upper Dev in that area could perform perhaps better than the Marcellus in liquids though the Marcellus and Utica should be good also. There is a lot of oil I believe in the McDonald field yet to be tapped.
Should note that RICE bought 22,000 western Greene County acres from CHK the other day. Included undeveloped land as well as existing wells. Believe RICE tops for wet and dry with recent Belmont Co. single dry gas well at 41.69 mmcf/d.
2 July 2014:
Ergon Inc., a private petroleum refinery and distribution company based in Jackson, Mississippi, announced plans July 1 to enhance its subsidiaries in the Appalachian Basin.
Ergon plans to add 10,000 barrels per day of condensate stabilization in Newell, West Virginia, in 2015. The company also plans to start up 10,000 barrels per day of condensate stabilization capacity at its Marietta, Ohio, river terminal by the end of this year.
“These investments complement our existing capabilities in the Appalachian Basin and further enhance our ability to support drillers and producers in the growing condensate and NGL markets,” Robert Lampton, Ergon’s president of supply & distribution, said in a statement.
Several Ergon subsidiaries, including Ergon - West Virginia; its refinery, Ergon Oil Purchasing; Ergon Terminaling; Ergon Trucking and Magnolia Marine Transport Company, have operated in the Appalachian region for more than 17 years.
These subsidiaries’ assets and capabilities in the Appalachian Basin include a paraffinic refinery, a crude oil and condensate pipeline, six crude oil terminals, a fleet of more than 100 trucks, and eight boats and barges. The subsidiaries have spent over $75 million expanding tankage and enhancing crude and condensate gathering capabilities in support of crude oil and condensate producers in the Appalachian Basin over the last two years.
“We’re thrilled to have the opportunity to expand on the services we’ve offered Ergon customers in the Appalachian Basin for almost two decades,” Lampton added.
Just a thought, anyone thinking WPT could be bought out?
Here are six reasons, in addition to past performance, why you will not likely not see the price target you mentioned:
Increased revenues 110% to record $35.4 million
Increased earnings-per-share to record $0.12 (after-tax)
Opened additional offices throughout U.S., expanded sales and service teams
Extended brand with launch of first proprietary valve product
Partnered with Prior Industries Australia PTY LTD, raising number of company's international distributors to three
Recognized as #311 fastest-growing company in North America by Deloitte.
Fact is the price never made it to 4.00 due to past performance, and today, reinforced by earning release. I predicted, base on company guidance for 2015 yr. of revenues and net income in the range of 63% or thereabout. Now we have to readjust to shall we say 100% CAGR. We are appear to moving into new territory, future price targets may warrant upward revisions. So people are waiting for Crammer. Why, what is he going to tell anyone he doesn't already talk about, on TV or in his books. To sum, do your DD, which takes time and effort. Unfortunately some folks must be lead by the hand and don't have the will to make a decision one way or another.
June 26, 2014 (key points):
Foundation shipper on the ET Rover pipeline, a subsidiary of ETP. The project will provide Range the flexibility to move Pennsylvania natural gas to Dawn, Ontario and south to the Gulf Coast. Range has agreed to transport up to 400,000 Mmbtu per day for 20 years starting in October 2017. The natural gas will be supplied directly from a regional processing plant.
Signed its first two LNG supply agreements subject to commencement of the projects. The Company entered into an agreement with an affiliate of LNG to supply gas to the Sabine Pass LNG terminal on the Gulf Coast. The Sabine Pass facility is expected to commence service in late 2015. Range is expected to supply gas to the facility for five years starting in 2017. Another agreement with another company to supply natural gas to another LNG terminal for a term of ten years. Further, Range is in active discussions with several major international companies to supply natural gas to other LNG facilities.
Executed two additional fixed term ethane sales agreements, subject to project completion. The first contract will potentially supply an affiliate of SSL with 10,000 barrels of ethane per day for a multi-year term via ATEX. Sasol anticipates reaching final investment decision later this year on its proposed 1.5 million ton per annum ethane cracker and derivatives complex near Lake Charles, LA. The second ethane agreement would supply ASCENT in Parkersburg, WVa. The ethane agreement commits Range to 5,000 barrels per day for a term of 15 years. The ASCENT ethane will be supplied directly from a regional processing plant. The agreement with ASCENT/Odebrecht Organization confirms Range's commitment to the downstream economic development within the Appalachian region where Range is a leader in the growth of this region.
How should we interpret “ETP is in discussions with SXL regarding a potentially significant equity participation by SXL”.
Looking to move into another MLP in PADD-3 and perhaps in PADD-2. Already have DAKP in ND, but that is it. MWE and SXL in PADD-3 and 1. Also the Patoka IL, rail connection appears to be PAGP. Sounds like two issues being addressed that is PADD-2 to 3, and rail to PADD-1 and west. This could be beneficial to the rails as the Chicago choke point is eliminated. Have to look more into this. Also recall a three tier commitment terms for E&P.
Just noted another potential blow to ETE/ETP family that is a Reuters report that EPD’s announcement of a 30-inch 340,000 barrel-day Bakken crude pipeline originating in Stanley ND and terminating at Cushing. The Stanley site would appear to be at EOG’s BNSF rail terminal.
Anyway, CNX I’ve held since just about went public a decade or so ago. Reduced that position significantly last summer with proceeds moving into other higher-rate of return investments, throw in a little stability to boot. They have done well since, but at the time, I was weary that management had the talent to pull off a mostly coal to mostly gas/oil transition. They have made some big steps, and perhaps after stumbling, and replacing most top management, they may be up to speed for now. Nonetheless, I am happy with my decision. Waiting to see what NBL/CNX CONE mlp offers in the coming months. My biggest hold on MLPs now is they have run up too far too fast. So I’ll sit back a review and wait. Also hold NBL since JV with CNX.
IMO, ETE with 24+ billion in debt (likely to adding more for the buyout), and now a blotched acquisition just enforces my reason for not buying ETE in the first place. Still looking at MMP, or adding to MWE perhaps, though again will not chase the upward price movement. Anyway you noted GLOG/GLOP in past post. I was looking at GLOG, and then the announcement of GLOP. Unfortunately, the offering price was exceeded, and I don’t like to chase prices, so that is off for me now. Today, on a lower limit order, I picked up non-MLP ASC. Not an LNG shipper, but chemical shipper, IMO, more reasonably priced for a building company. Sure you follow the sand MLPs? I note in past HCLP which I still hold, EMES for sand and the refined product side as a kicker; consolidation in the business is ripe. Was in the SW Pa this past weekend, noted many sand bulk haulers on the interstates. RRC has adapted to vertical proppant silos on frac jobs. HAL, though not alone, has recently begun offering vertical silos. Looking for another good well near the recent record well reported last qrt. Lastly, the go-away in May didn’t materialize, but retracement rules, I prefer guidelines, work well for me. We saw for a very short period like a day or two below 62, my lower target. We have been upward since.
Some question really don’t need to be answered when the data is already available on the web site. For one, there are perhaps “millions of wells” that the products can be used with, not “millions of oil and gas companies”; that is we only have 2-3% of the potential market. Not sure your construction safety background encompasses the oil and gas industry, but anyway thinking you can move forward with the data available, knowing the industry specifics, and understanding that companies often have on-going business strategies that are proprietary. Mostly likely, the shareholders relations is tied up with a lot of calls and inquires some perhaps similar to yours. I have called and written to other outfits in the past, some no response, some called back. My experience has been those that didn’t call back did better, those that did, had problems, that is in relation to company and stock price performance. So it’s purely anecdotal to assume that no rely is a bad sign.
I would hope that the products installed would have a good service life. Also understand that the company will “instruct” on maintenance, and perhaps offer a maintenance plan were PFIE will do the applicable routine scheduled and unscheduled maintenance as required. E&P outfits are consistently looking to reduce costs, and they are not going to spend money on something that must be routinely replaced. There are others in the business, some smaller or equal to, some are giants that perhaps aren't in this side of the business. That tells me that if the growth continues, there could one day be a buyout offer from the larger to fill that unfilled market.
Yes I like what they are doing so far. The business should cover the full spectrum of oil, wet, and dry gas wells. I would not regard the issue of new stock as a negative. The company currently has no debt, and is likely looking to expand and develop new business.
Details were skimpy-sure more will follow soon. The June 12 CNX analyst day presentation issued yesterday is huge, have been going through it. One thing to note from this presentation, among others, is that may pipeline systems have or are in the process of becoming is a new bi-direction business, kind of like the rails. I think you see CNX in the low-mid 50's by year end. They kept the best of the cash cow coal side which should benefit the E&P side, as well as taking advantage of the current low stockpiles in coal, and also gas. Dry gas is becoming increasingly important. For a pure dry gas play, I bought into RICE recently, with intentions to add. Else where in the business, I bought into PFIE, up 37% in about a month. Really great going forward projected growth, most missed it even though the data was made public. One the crude rail side, DAKP will become MKT on the NYSE next week, will maintain that. On the MLP side, I adding nothing YTD, but that may change in second half. Marv has be consistent there and I am in pretty much agreement there. I would keep and eye on the sand side of the business. I have been watch the marine side also as these outfit build up thinking there are other opportunities in addition to LNG shippers.
Have a great weekend all!
I haven't followed MHR since I sold it off last year. I am watching NBL/CNX CONE possible sale or MLP. CNX indicated one or the other this year. Largest complex in Majorsville. NBL doing well in the area, and noted the Moundsville area could be even better.
Nah, wouldn't think of it. Besides ME-1 already being put in the ground from Liberty, heading to Delmont. Just hope we have good new on ME-2.
RICE just test flowed their Belmont Co. Utica well, in at 41.69 mmcf/d, (5-day flowback) at 5850 pressure. Dry gas at 1086 btu. No processing required. Will go to REX for one.
Few things to consider.
The company has recently expanded its presence in Tioga, Pennsylvania, and opened a new location in Victoria Texas. This is in addition to locations in Lindon, Utah; Edmonton, Alberta; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and Houston, Texas. I would expect new service centers perhaps in SW Pa., WVa., and Ohio as Marcellus and Utica wet and now more focus on dry gas intensifies. Addition locations perhaps in SW Virginia. So the business is expanding.
Assuming the company’s performance over the past couple of years and in relation to the latest 2015 revenue and earning power guidance, it would appear that since 2013 to 2015 timeframe, CARG is at about 65-68%, and net income in the range of 40 – perhaps as high as 68%. Assuming those growth rates, I would put a target price in the $5.50 to $6+ range. Since the report, the stock has been a positive upward trend, today’s volume up six times the daily average. YOY, the stock price is up about 196%.
The company has only been on the OTC market early this year alone.
Though the company has developed new products, it has no debt.
Management appears sound and seasoned, but time will tell.
Ineos has two 15-yr contactss to Rafen Norway via Mackus Hook, and has or is in process of building new ships for Hook service. ME-1 is contracted out. ME-2 is next big question. No word out on ME-2 or line pipe size for it. There is more cost to ship to PADD-3 Vs. within PADD-1. But your post makes me bite my lip owning SXL. EPD did a great job with ATEX. SXL will have a harder time with ME-2 going over the Pa mts.In addition, larger capacity ships may ofset the longer pipeline distance to PADD-3. We will see what SXL response is.
It appears the large holders are trading MLPs, but it’s a hot market, and that bothers me. EMES price swings are nerve racking lately. OILT has essentially been straight up in past month or so, mostly driven by precursor than reality just as GLOP. A lot of MPLs have come on line here in the past few months. For me I have to take the time to dig into these outfits. I pasted on OILT, like MMP, but went with HCLP and SXL on the MLP side. However I pick up a couple of non-MLP’s, in part on current performance and projected niche business growth. And the business has to interest me. Typically I already know the business, perhaps in general, then buy and then dig deeper. Especially helpful when I get can get boots on the ground data. HCLP l liked the business, that is, supporting E&P, D&I buyout, and the recent Whitehall buyout. One fact is that E&P RCS competitions is in full swing and will continue, mostly likely forever. SXL I like for Permian expansions, and of course supporting the E&P and midstream outfits I already owned, even before I bought into MWE, for upcoming ME-1, ME-2, and Markus Hook. By the way I decision to invest in my first MLP, MWE, was due to being on scene and talking to MWE supervisor who was overseeing an HDD gathering line operation on a cold snowy December day. Not because of watching this board or listening to anyone else. Having said that, this is perhaps the best board I have participated on. Sometimes I think some share too much info. As other MLPs shoot through the roof, I am more inclined to add to MWE, but just not yet. I had a 28-year position in a good rail, but current management went numb for 5-years. I finally trimmed some, then solid it off completely, one can only tolerate a lack of performance so long. My opinion is MWE is hardly goofing off, for one by completing 11 projects this year. Anyway, happy Memorial Day to all.