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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

chuckpalot 138 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 9:03 AM Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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  • Research analysts at Telsey Advisory Group boosted their price target on shares of Dunkin Brands Group (NASDAQ:DNKN) from $54.00 to $57.00 in a report released on Friday. The firm currently has an “outperform” rating on the stock. Telsey Advisory Group’s price target would indicate a potential upside of 10.66% from the stock’s previous close.

  • Super DNKN Q1 results, great Boston Marathon on Monday, and the Patriots visit the White House today. It's all good in the neighborhood!!

  • Solid. Very Solid. Let the run to $50+ begin!!

  • Reply to

    DNKN BULLS

    by chuckpalot Mar 11, 2015 5:18 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 23, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    I love it when I'm wrong about being too gloomy!

    A 2.7% bump in store comps?! That is very Coolatta!!!

    Raising guidance for both top and bottom lines? Looks like a slam Dunkin!!!

    K-pack distribution model already impacting sales and profits?! Hotter than a breakfast burrito!!!

    US and global unit expansion on track?! You betcha!

    And how about that red-headed step child that everyone ignores? Baskin comps up 8%. May not fly under the radar for much longer.

    Nice Q DNKN!! And of course, new highs coming....oh wait, they're here already.

  • Looks like Fidelity was increasing their W holdings in the first quarter. It'll be interesting to see the filings by them and others who understand the enormous potential of Wayfair and want very large passive stakes in the company as the story unfolds.

    Would not be surprised to see Fido end up with ~15% of the float. We'll know soon enough.

  • Reply to

    A Few WATCH INDUSTRY Factoids Worth Noting

    by chuckpalot Apr 10, 2015 4:46 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 13, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    I wonder how many C-level watch industry execs will sit up and take notice this week after Apple sheds more light on initial launch figures? A lot of them have been sounding like Ballmer dissing the iPhone in 2007 (two parts hubris, one part denial, and one part stupidity).

    I predict a lot of these old-school watch guys will be out of work in a few years, admitting like Ballmer did with the aid of hindsight, that they simply underestimated the appeal of Apple Watch. Doh!!!

    History is a great teacher!

  • Apple is effectively putting the watch industry on notice. Here is a look at the addressable market for the Apple Watch; much bigger and more lucrative than I realized:

    1. # of watches sold annually = 1,200,000,000

    2. Swiss watches sold annually = 29.2 million

    3. ASP of a Swiss watch = $739.

    4. Swiss watch market share by $$ value = 54%

    5. Sales Leaders by Annual Revenue: Swatch/Omega = $8.8 Billion, Rolex = $4.5 Billion

    6. Largest watch markets by $ value sales: 1. Hong Kong, 2. USA, 3. China, 4. France 5. Germany. Together, these five markets account for over half of global sales volume.

    Source: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 10, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    "What do I win?"

    I assume you're shareholder so you've won already! But because you showed your math work, we're throwing in a new watch for you. Well, not "new" exactly, but it's a gently used Casio I won't be needing soon.

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 10, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    Not that any of us Bulls are surprised, but the sell-out rate across just a small handful of countries is quite telling.

    Time to raise the estimates and price targets. Again.

    Version 2 of the Watch will be the one that really moves the needle. And by the end of 2017, half the planet will have an Apple watch.

    Midas got nothin' on Cook & Co.

  • KESTENBAUM: Wayfair sells something online that a lot of people are used to buying in stores - furniture. You may have seen the ads. What is the heaviest thing you sell?
    SHAH: We have some beds, for example, that can weigh 1,500 pounds, like big, ornate, carved wood, you know, huge pillars. And so the delivery on some of these items is tricky to say the least.
    KESTENBAUM: The company went public just last year. Lots of people bought the stock, presumably thinking, great idea, a huge online furniture store. But there were also skeptics, people apparently so convinced this dream would fail that they bet against the company. They shorted the stock. If Wayfair fails, the short sellers make money.
    SHAH: You know, it doesn't really bother me that folks short the stock. I was just surprised, to be honest.
    KESTENBAUM: Doesn't it bug you a little bit?
    SHAH: You know, it's - I guess, maybe annoying would be a better term.
    KESTENBAUM: When a company ends up on the most shorted list, it's often because there are two groups of people with totally opposite views on something critical to the company's future. In this case, Shah thinks, the controversial thing is those ads.
    KESTENBAUM: The debate is not over the ads themselves, but the amount of money Wayfair is spending on advertising. The ads are helping sell lots of barstools and four-poster beds, but the company is not making a profit yet. Shah says the company will be able to scale back on ads once the Wayfair name is out there. He's
    made his case with data and numbers on repeat customers, but that has not seemed to sway the short sellers. They're still out there. He's not sure why.
    SHAH: The degree of the short interest means that folks are super convinced that they're right. And I guess that is the piece I'm missing.
    KESTENBAUM: Would you like to meet someone who has short your company? If we could find someone, would you talk to him?
    SHAH: Oh, yeah. I'd be happy to.

  • A Boston-based evening magazine TV show recently aired a segment focused on the changing landscape of the workplace and how millennials gravitate to progressive work cultures. Two Boston-based business are highlighted, including Wayfair.

    Easy to find (sorry, Y! prohibits link postings) - just google "WCVB & Wayfair" to find the vid.

  • chuckpalot by chuckpalot Mar 31, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Muted volume/selling pressure implies insiders not anxious to sell at these levels. And I don't blame them.

    Shorts can't catch a break on this one. Lol

  • Haven't added to my (already too large position) in over a year but believe it's time to get longer during this 2015/16 "Super Cycle" comprised of 6/6+, Watch, TV, Pay, new MacBooks, etc.

    Placed an order the day of the watch announcement at $120 knowing there would be a "sell the news" moment - which really didn't happen (got to $122). But I'm stubborn and patient.

    Wondering who else is thinking this number could be hit?

  • Since the end of Feb, as of March 13, short interest dropped a mere 600,000 shares to 8.3 million

    These guys are playing with fire while Wayfair is playing for keeps. Max Pain lurking fo shizzle.

  • Reply to

    Will InBev Finally Move on SABMiller?

    by chuckpalot Mar 12, 2015 1:09 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Mar 25, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    The Kraft-Heinz deal is a nice recipe for a InBev-SABMiller marriage.

    Maybe Warren needs to mediate the transaction. Took him "a few weeks" to put today's deal together.

    This deal needs to get done!!!!

  • On Oct. 15, W was trading at $24 and had a short interest of 1.5 million shares.

    Today, six months later, W trades at $32.50 and short interest is 9 million shares.

    They are taking it on the chin here fellas - except for those that covered ~$20, took there profits and ran.

    Feel really bad for those that jumped in short at the bottom below $20. Max pain ahead. LOL

  • Reply to

    DNKN BULLS

    by chuckpalot Mar 11, 2015 5:18 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Mar 12, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    Saw this at lunch today:

    Cold weather chills U.S. retail sales; jobs market firming
    REUTERS — 12:22 PM ET 03/12/15
    By Lucia Mutikani
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third straight month in February as harsh weather kept consumers from auto showrooms and shopping malls, tempering the outlook for first-quarter growth and a June interest rate increase.
    Even accounting for the snowy and cold weather, which blanketed much of the country in late February, there is little doubt that consumer spending has slowed significantly after robust growth in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
    "This report points to a surprisingly bigger weather impact on spending activity than previously thought. The weakness in spending could potentially complicate the case for a mid-year hike by the hawkish members of the Fed," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in the New York.
    The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales dropped 0.6 percent as receipts fell in almost all categories. Sales had declined 0.8 percent in January.
    It was the first time since 2012 that sales had dropped for three consecutive months. Economists had forecast retail sales increasing 0.3 percent last month.

  • Guys - the window for super cheap money is finally starting to close. If (IF!!) Inbev was ever gonna make a run at Miller this year may be their last, best, chance cause any deal will take a ton of financing to complete.

    Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick.....

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Mar 12, 2015 8:51 AM Flag

    Citi Scores an A+ on the Final Exam, again best among the big banks.

    $.05 dividend approved as was almost $8 Billion in buybacks.

    We see significant tail winds for C over the next two years as they continue to rationalize and streamline their operations, push into new consumer markets (e.g. Costco), and benefit from new lending initiatives as the Fed changes course on monetary policy.

    Action: Reiterate Strong Buy with 12 month target of $73

  • chuckpalot by chuckpalot Mar 11, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    Q1 earnings will come out next month and, honestly, I don't expect great comp numbers thanks to six weeks of horrendous North East weather. Flat comps will be a moral victory.

    With many other great things happening for DNKN, plus and improving overall economy not to mention better weather, the outlook is very bright. Any post-earnings selloff looks like a great time to initiate a holding or add additional shares.

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