You ask a great question, and one of the best answers I can think of is to share what happened here in the heart of Dunkin country (Boston) over 15 years ago when SBUX made it's own concerted effort to enter the market and, not surprisingly, many "experts" and locals thought it was doomed.
The bottom line is they did not fail to attract their own dedicated and loyal following. They now have scores of thriving locations in and around greater Boston, and while still just a fraction of the DD footprint, the takeaway is clear; these two coffee giants can compete and coexist in the same markets.
This is just one anecdotal reason why I believe DNKN will prosper out West. I don't know if you've spent time in California, but the demographics there are actually a huge plus for DNKN. In the Bay area, for every Silicon Valley geek or Nob Hill dilettante (SBUX devotees), there are dozens of regular, blue collar, folks (DNKNs sweet spot).
Same thing in LA, San Diego, Long Beach, Sacramento, etc, etc.
By rolling out "in size", and with a far better logistics, sourcing, and marketing, I'm convinced DNKN has the right mix (including mostly experienced and successful franchisees looking to expand out west) to finally establish a major presence in CA.
It'll just take time...10 years from now there will be thousands of DD's scattered up and down the west coast.
Oh, and by then, DNKNs share price will be much, much higher.
I don't disagree and have been building a position $10. Timing is the great unknown but I'm patient. Go China!
The most impressive personal gadget I've ever owned and takes Industrial Art to a whole, new, gigantic level!
It's a category killer, it's gonna take the world by storm, and, of course, put billion$ more into the Apple coffers.
This customer and shareholder could not be happier!!!
Serious spanking going on here after what I thought was a fairly decent Q.
No position - yet - but I've been watching since the IPO, which now looks failed with a 50% haircut from its high. Can't figure out where the bottom will be but my hunch is we're getting close. May nibble on the close to initiate.
In a year this could be a double, or more all by itself. Or Mr. Ma may come calling to open up a "pre-fabbed" US based outlet, complete with infrastructure, personel, etc. for $3.5 B (chump change to Baba).
If you read my statement above then you know I agree with you: "CurrentC will be clunky to use, invasive of privacy, and fraught with security limitations."
And now, two days later we hear about it being hacked, and a softening on the consortium's' stance against other contactless payment methods.
I stand by my comment this initiative will launch DOA - if it launches at all.
All these retailers, like CVS, who've signed onto the consortium initiative, don't have much wiggle room vis a vis the contract they signed.
Too bad for them since this is really bad PR. Adding insult to injury (read: defections), the "finished" product next year will be clunky to use, invasive of privacy, and fraught with security limitations. It'll come to market DOA - which is usually the case of any product/service designed by committee.
18 months from now (if not sooner) the CurrentC initiative will occupy its rightful spot in the failed initiative Hall of Fame.
40 years ago clowns were cool. Today, not so much.
Of course, I'm kidding (I think?). But Ronalds very existence today is symbolic of how entrenched behemoths shun change/progress to protect the status quo. Only after years of slow and steady decline will most boards wake up and realize a menu change here, and new leader there, are failed initiatives.
These are precisely the reasons why activism has become so popular these days. The fat cats need to be shown the door, and a new path taken to put the gold back into them there arches!
Disclosure: Not a shareholder and haven't been thru the doors in over 10 years, but I grew up eating this stuff in the days long before health mattered.
Look at the PE multiple assigned to the big sugar water company (KO) who's business is shrinking and losing it's fizz VS. the multiple assigned to the most adored consumer brand on the planet, who's business is growing nicely (eat crow "law of large numbers" crew), and is standing at the epicenter of a global technology boom.
Another reason just to put your AAPL shares away and let time correct the human error of Wall Street judgement. Unless the Apple story changes, Uncle Carl will (eventually) be proven right; AAPL = $200+
Hello old friend, self-described "great trader", where did you run off to?
Now, three Quarters later, time has been somewhat cruel to MCD, it's business, and its shareholders.
While consumers still are leaving MCD in droves, I just hope that I was wrong about my other prediction; that you would likely lose all your money trading options in MCD. If you did, let's just call it the cost of your investing education (we all go through it, son).
As for MCD's business, the numbers don't lie and Ronny is in trouble. Sure, they have the mass to stay in denial for a while longer, but the longer they wait to produce a material change to the current operating structure, the more difficult it will be to turn the ship around. Think Titanic.
Brian is the AAPL perma bull analyst @ Cantor Fitzgerald, who first put the $1001 price target on Apple in 2012. He likes to have fun with price target numbering and he's at $123 right now - which was the highest on the street - until Carl's $203.
So, can $234 be far off????
Do us all a favor and return that phone tomorrow and use the proceeds to purchase a couple of rams horns (one for you the other for your friend) to chat on, and stop by the letter store for a bag of capital Gs!
He won't take Carl's $203 target valuation lying down. No way! Watch him set a new price at $234.
Thanks for the reply, but my question remains - Is there any reasonable chance CI pushes the BOD into breaking up NUAN into discreet businesses and spinning one or two off.
I feel your pain with this holding, but for me this would be a speculative play. I don't believe there's a natural buyer for NUAN, at least not in how its currently structured. My gut tells me there's VALUE here up to or even above what you paid for it in 2012. It boils down to HOW that value gets unlocked and breaking up the major business lines might be one logical way to do it.
Time will tell, and I wish you all the best.