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# Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

chuckpalot 61 posts  |  Last Activity: May 19, 2015 5:10 PM Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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• #### 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply ATTN: Lemming Financial Journalists, Bloggers, & Investors and Bears (On My!)

chuckpalot by chuckpalot Feb 24, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

The most frequently used, and MISUSED, notion about Apple's inability to grow (which they've proven again and again is simply untrue) revolves around the fancy term, The Law of Large Numbers. The rationale being the bigger Apple gets, the more difficult it will be to grow.

While there may be some truth to that as yet unseen notion, using the LLN to depict it is yet another example of how the media and pundits show their ignorance. Science geeks everywhere scoff at the silly notion that these expert scribes - and talking heads - have any clue at all.

Here's one (accurate) definition of the Law of Large Numbers. After reading it, tell me WHAT this has to do with predicting the future for Apple!!!

---snip---

In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy).

#### ATTN: Lemming Financial Journalists, Bloggers, & Investors and Bears (On My!)

by chuckpalot Feb 24, 2015 9:26 AM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 24, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

Bump worthy

• #### 1 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply K-Cup Tsunami Floods Market Place. Bears Drowning.

chuckpalot by chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

A very nice deal here with GMCR and Smuckers. A big win for DNKN, it's franchises, and shareholders.

And the beat goes on, the share price climbs.

I just wish we could attract a higher class of bear here. Ours seem toothless, clawless, and brainless!

#### The Big MO Cash Machine - Like Your Own Personal ATM

by chuckpalot Jan 30, 2015 9:56 AM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

MO prints another new high today. She's MONEY!

• #### 11 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply What Are The Odds Apple Watch Sales Embarrass The "Experts"?

chuckpalot by chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

I round it out to 100%. Time and again, the power of this brand exceeds cognitive rationale. They (Wall Street) just can't get over themselves. Too funny - or embarrassing, depending on your viewpoint.

#### K-Cup Tsunami Floods Market Place. Bears Drowning.

by chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 10:58 AM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

Profitless? I'm up over 75% in about three years holding DNKN, not including the dividends.

But, hey, thanks for playing and helping make my point. Well done!

#### What Are The Odds Apple Watch Sales Embarrass The "Experts"?

by chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 12:58 PM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

Yup, the more things change....

• #### 4 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Did You Guys Watch Apple's Half Hour Commercial Last Night in Prime Time?

chuckpalot by chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

An entire episode of Modern Family built around all things Apple.

Power Branding with zero cost. Amazing!!!

#### Did You Guys Watch Apple's Half Hour Commercial Last Night in Prime Time?

by chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 1:42 PM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

Yes, it had everything but the watch; iPhones, iPads, MacBooks, Facetime, Quicktime, FinalCut.

And it was HILARIOUS!

#### What Are The Odds Apple Watch Sales Embarrass The "Experts"?

by chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 12:58 PM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

The rest of you are forgiven for being poor investors. Live and learn, I guess.

#### Did You Guys Watch Apple's Half Hour Commercial Last Night in Prime Time?

by chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 1:42 PM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

It really was beautifully crafted, and I understand, shot entirely with Apple lenses!

I also like how the writers/producers kept the youngest characters off devices entirely or they had only limited access; e.g. Lily had one hour of iPad time.

#### art cashin

by takeiteasyu2 Feb 26, 2015 3:55 PM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 3:59 PM Flag

I love that man. Hope he's OK. Keep us posted...

#### K-Cup Tsunami Floods Market Place. Bears Drowning.

by chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 10:58 AM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 26, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

Now we're getting some clarity! So basically you're a SBUX pumper who likes to stir the pot over here on the DNKN board. Got it!

For the record I'm BULLISH on SBUX and I made the case here (several months ago) that the two franchises can coexist and prosper in the same market due to their appeal to different demographic segments.

So, unlike you, I'm not playing a zero-sum game between the two. I can, and have, made money invested in both company's.

I also believe DNKN has more upside that SBUX looking out over the next three years. Time will tell.

• #### 5 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Such Irony. LL Gets Floored.

chuckpalot by chuckpalot Mar 2, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

#### Such Irony. LL Gets Floored.

by chuckpalot Mar 2, 2015 10:12 AM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Mar 2, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

This might knot end well. The horror of Plankenstein!

#### 14 Days to Cover

by chuckpalot Feb 12, 2015 4:01 PM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Mar 3, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

And so it begins. One group should be very happy tomorrow. I'm going with the Bulls.

Everything boils down to guidance, and using the big box home improvement trends as a proxy, Wayfair will see strong demand over the near term.

GL all!!

• #### 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Awesome Job Wayfair!

chuckpalot by chuckpalot Mar 4, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

Kudos to Team W for kicking butt last Q, and for all of 2014!

Raising guidance for this Q is the cherry on top!

Every key metric - revenues, earnings, new customer acquisition, brand awareness, repeat biz, and margins - all heading in the right direction. Solid execution and continued growth in these areas will validate the home furnishings niche, with Wayfair emerging as the undisputed leader in the space.

It's very early in the game here and the upside for W shares is very compelling.

#### Such Irony. LL Gets Floored.

by chuckpalot Mar 2, 2015 10:12 AM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Mar 4, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

Yes, which is why I find it troubling that so many people think they were bottom-feeding yesterday at \$40. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better - if ever.

#### Dunkinโ Brands (DNKN) shares are rallying nearly 3% today after the team at Goldman Sachs (GS) told clients to buy the shares in part because its K-Cups are flying off the shelves, plus more customers are taking advantage of the company's DD Perks loyalty program. The firm says the stock can reach \$54 a share, that's a gain of about 15% from current levels. Dunkinโ shares are already up 9% this year but that still trails rival Starbuck's 14% gain.

by yp_joe_east_weymouth Mar 5, 2015 1:21 PM
chuckpalot chuckpalot Mar 5, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

Another Analyst wakes up n smells the DD coffee. And wants a refill.

Nice!

That two in two weeks.

• #### 4 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 2 Reply Sorry Haters. Citi Passed w Flying Colors.

chuckpalot by chuckpalot Mar 5, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

\$70+ by xmas

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