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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

chuckpalot 1135 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 23, 2015 9:26 AM Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Great Deal - if it Happens!

    by chuckpalot Oct 29, 2015 10:00 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Nov 23, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    As structured, AGN takes over PFE in a mostly stock deal, thus mitigating the tax hit. This move, along with the Hospira deal sets the table for a bigger blobkbuster in 1017; a spin of two stonger, even more profitable companies. Checkmate!

  • Due to "suspicious passenger/s".

    I'd stay far away from this airline given it's appeal to potential terrorists traveling on tight budgets. It's just not worth the enormous risk. Avoid Spirit at all costs!

  • Reply to

    Consumer Dollars Clearly Heading HOME

    by chuckpalot Nov 17, 2015 11:22 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Nov 17, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    Apparently, Yahoo won't let me write the name of a Sporting Goods chain who shares a slang name with a certain body part. Too funny!

  • More good news for the Wayfair bulls!

    Looking at this earnings season a clear trend is emerging; Department stores and Malls are underperforming badly (Macy's, Penny's, Nordstrom all post lousy numbers and weak guidance) Even #$%$ suffering.

    On the other hand, Wayfair, Home Depot, and the strong home and ecommerce players are all going through the roof (intended).

    When it comes to investing in consumer stocks, it makes good cents (yup) to follow the money; and it's becoming increasingly evident where, and how, consumers are putting it to work.

    Move over heart, Home is where the $$$ is!

  • Reply to

    Tilson's Fund is Down Over 4% This Year

    by chuckpalot Nov 16, 2015 7:39 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Nov 16, 2015 7:54 PM Flag

    On the other hand, Tilson's largest long position, Spirit Air, is down over 50% this year. Just visited their web site. Looks a lot like Lumber Liquidators site, not that they're exactly the same.

    He's a solid contrarian indicator this Tilson. LOL

  • Wayfair up over 80%.

  • As predicted, Fidelity shows their faith in Wayfair by increasing it's stake in the company during Q3. They upped their holdings by 25%, adding 1.33 million shares for a total holding of 6.5 Million shares making them the second largest holder now.

    Something tells me they're buying more this week too. Could see them ending up with ~20% of the float and earning a huge payday down the road.

  • Reply to

    What A FANTASTIC Quarter!!! Congrats to Wayfair!!!

    by chuckpalot Nov 10, 2015 12:26 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Nov 11, 2015 7:30 PM Flag

    Bump for noobies. Wayfair going to $80+ within five quarters. Enjoy the ride longs!!

  • Reply to

    Cramer is right: Question Wayfair's business model

    by bobva1 Nov 11, 2015 6:33 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Nov 11, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    Thanks for your insights, Bob.

    You clearly know absolutely nothing, zero, nada about Wayfairs' Biz.

    Logistics of stocking inventory? REALLY?
    Overbuy? Say what??!!

    Do some deep research then come back. Let us know what you've learned once educated.

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Nov 11, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    Skewered on Mad Money. Double doosh that Tilson.

    For the Holidays we wish him a long and most deserved date with Max Pain.

  • He was on bashing his two drug co. shorts, but was also asked about his Wayfair short, which he's losing on badly I might add.

    His response is priceless and reminds me of a saying we used in college (a very long time ago); "Tis better to be thought a fool and remain silent, than speak out and remove all doubt".

    He, Whitney, and all their sheeple are hurting on W and it's gonna get a lot worse for them over the next few Q's.

    Just makes being long that much sweeter!

  • Reply to

    Stupid question

    by boost1995 Nov 11, 2015 10:06 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Nov 11, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    MO winds up with a 10.5% stake in "newco" + two board seats. Plus the $2B windfall.

  • To a sweet deal and a brighter future!

    Next round on me....

  • Whitney Tilson is at it again. After suffering enormous financial and professional damage on his bet against Tesla two years ago, and another round of egg-in-yer-face this year betting against Herbalife, he now wants to attack Wayfair. A glutton for punishment I guess.

    Good for you, Whitney! This will be strike three, so go grab some pine and lick those (compounding) wounds.

    I understand the gamesmanship of re-disclosing your short position the night before Wayfair announces yet another stellar quarter. But I do smell something foul in the air, and it ain't formaldehyde. It's the smell of desperation. Linking Wayfair to Lumber Liquidators is pure folly, an act so desperate its laughable,

    At the end of the day, your folly serves to strengthen my conviction in Wayfair. Knowing you have to resort to the very worst behavior to recover your losses so far in Wayfair (short from the low/mid $30's) tells me you've run out of plausible arguments and are merely grasping at straws.

    Very entertaining and we'll see you at $75 next year. LOL

  • Piper Jaffray analyst Neely Tamminga raised her price target for Wayfair to $73 from $60 this morning, saying the company posted "exceptional" growth in Q3 amid an otherwise "lackluster" retail environment.

  • I can't find much to complain about after listening to the conference call and looking over the numbers. In other words, Wayfair continues to enjoy explosive growth, massive new customer adoption (adding 547,000 since last quarter), an ever- growing percentage of repeat (and higher margin) business of 55.2% - the highest ever for Wayfair, and an increasing rate of mobile as a percent of total sales.

    To put it another way, they are KILLING IT and are well on their way to becoming the de facto destination for "everything home" in the ever-expanding world of ecommerce.

    Looking forward, guidance was very strong for the current Holiday Quarter ($625-$66 million) which will extend their torrid growth rate into next year.

    Looking ahead to 2016, it's likely Wayfair revenues will jump well over 50% to between $3.5 - $4.0 BILLION, and will turn what is now a positive FCF into actual profits in either Q3 or Q4.

    These guys are just knocking the cover off the ball. Look for the price targets to climb starting today as Wayfair fulfills the promise of building out the worlds biggest online home furnishing store.

    Very well done, Team Wayfair!

  • Reply to

    Earnings Set for Nov 10. Be There!

    by chuckpalot Oct 14, 2015 10:16 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Nov 9, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    Hey Chill,

    I will neither gloat nor hide after the results are announced. I'm in Wayfair for the long haul, and if you've read my posts, you already know how i think the story on Wayfair plays out.

    If they miss the stock gets crushed. If they beat solidly - and provide bullish guidance for Q4 - it's MAX PAIN for the heavily leveraged short crowd and this stock goes to new highs.

    Either way, we'll know in about 15 hours, and I'll be sleeping like a baby tonight. Not so sure Shorty can say the same....

    Good luck!

  • It's GO Time tomorrow BEFORE the opening bell. Here are a few keys to look for in the earnings announcement:

    Revenues: Street looking for $523M, a 55% jump over last year.
    Earnings: Street looking for a loss of 24 cents/share

    (I'm modelling revenues at ~$550 and a smaller loss of ~18 cents/sh. Anything like that - or better - will be a SOLID BEAT and further proof of the Model)

    Other Key Metrics to Look For:

    1. Total Active Customers. Last Q it stood at 4 million
    2. Repeat Customer Stats

  • Took lots of grief from friends and family for doing it too.

    37 months later, $19/sh seems like a pretty, pretty, pretty low price.

    The ultimate irony is I don't even use the product. Go figure!!

    Think I'll hold onto my shares for another three years while this story continues to unfold.

    Good luck!!!

  • Disclaimer from the short sellers own webpage:

    Citron does not guarantee in any way that it is providing all of the information that may be available. We recommend that you do your own due diligence before buying or selling any security. At any times the principals of Citron might hold a position in any of the securities profiled on the site. Citron will not report when a position is initiated or covered. Each investor must make that decision based on his/her judgment of the market.

    Short sheeple should reread that opening sentence; it's the most compelling aspect of Citron's argument against Wayfair.