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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

chuckpalot 67 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 5, 2016 6:54 PM Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Shorts Getting Desperate & For Good Reason

    by chuckpalot Feb 5, 2016 4:34 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 5, 2016 6:54 PM Flag

    Every time these morons post, they reveal how much they really know about Wayfair. Can't debate with ignorance.

    Northern, keep shorting it buddy. You deserve the final result, as in "a fool and his money...."

  • Relax longs, Wayfair gonna CRUSH IT when they announce in three weeks. And they'll guide UP for 2116. Plus, more new initiatives will be rolled out this year and next. Before you know it, Wayfair will not only be running in the black they'll become a darling of the post-Amazon ecommerce world; a case-study in David vs. Goliath.

    Are the shorts getting nervous? You betcha. They've tried everything for six months to destroy W but have failed miserably. And now TIME is running out for them and they'd love for a chance to cover at break even in the $20's and low $30's. But how? Desperate tweets? Cool idea! lol It's all they got left (pun intended).

    Don't be swayed by a couple two-bit shorts looking for fame (and lost $$$). And their lemming followers here and elsewhere should simply be ignored. They know less than nothing about Wayfair and are gonna get hurt bad blindly following their short puppeteers.

    Do your homework and understand what's really going on with this biz. Shorty won't tell you that Wayfair was profitable for several years (7-8% net profits) under it's original CSN brand running over 200 websites. Nor will shorty highlight how much smart money is holding Wayfair, or that the majority of their LARGEST shareholders actually ADDED to their holdings in Q4/15. These are smart guys who know what they're doing and have a deep knowledge of Wayfair's management, history, biz model, and ramp up. The exit strategy is in place, and as long as Wayfair continues to EXECUTE, the outcome will be hugely profitable.

    That is unless you were stupid enough to short this puppy @ 22, and again at 28, more at 34, and on and on.

    They're trapped and desperate and I have no pity for them.

    Long and Strong,

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 4, 2016 4:39 PM Flag

    Another gem, this one in Goldman's upgrade of Wayfair this morning:

    "Wayfair is outperforming most, if not all, in the home category online and our channel checks indicate this continued in 4Q. We raise our 4Q revenue estimate to $684mn, ahead of consensus of $667mn and guidance of $625-665mn. We raise our 2015-2017 revenue and EBITDA estimates 6% on average as brand awareness, merchandising, personalization, and logistics are driving improved repeat purchases."

    Schwartz expects a turn to profitability. "The bigger catalyst, in our view, is proving sustainability of the business model, illustrated by a return to profit. We forecast 2016 adjusted EBITDA of $24mn following five years of losses. Our analysis of unit economics (Exhibit 4) has given us improved comfort."

    The growing consensus is that W is not only kicking serious butt, but margin expansion is ahead of schedule.

    I agree!

  • First came consolidation under the Wayfair brand, then came massive expansion leading to critical mass, and now we finally have Wayfair exclusives; a move that widens the moat and distinguishes Wayfair as more than a powerful aggregator. It's evolving into a unique experience that will further fuel growth, expansion, and long-term success.

    This move raises the bar significantly and sends a loud message throughout the furniture industry. Couple this with their expansion into plumbing, design and contracting services, and you can see the beginnings of their future plans taking shape. What's next? Replacement Windows? Why not! Siding? Roofing? Plumbing and Electrical? A vertically integrated, lower cost, high service one stop shop for EVERYTHING Home. It's BLUE SKY baby. Just watch (and PROFIT). Buy the dips and enjoy the ride...

    Disruption. Disruption. Disruption. And we've only just begun...

  • Reply to

    Huge Miss Coming. Explains the "leak"

    by chuckpalot Feb 2, 2016 4:02 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 3, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Market To Yahoo: You're an Aging Dinosaur. Now Go Stand in the Corner w Blackberry & AOL and Face the Wall.

    Now potential BUYERs will wait for it to fall another 30%

  • Reply to

    Huge Miss Coming. Explains the "leak"

    by chuckpalot Feb 2, 2016 4:02 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 2, 2016 4:48 PM Flag

    DOH! it matters to buyers

  • gonna be ugly

  • Reply to

    Update from Wayfair HQ; We Bustin' Out!!

    by chuckpalot Jan 20, 2016 4:02 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 1, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    Now This....Leasing More Space in Portland ME for Call Center Now Occupied by LL Bean.


    BANGOR, Maine (NEWS CENTER) -- The L.L. Bean call center in Bangor will be closing earlier than originally scheduled to make room for a new tenant. Sources tell NEWS CENTER that Wayfair will be the new company going into that spot and that a call center for the company will be set up at the site. There's no word on how many people it will employ. Wayfair is an online home store with one of its headquarters located in Boston.

    Carolyn Beem the Senior Manager of Public Affairs for L.L. Bean said that the call center was originally scheduled to close in May, but will now be closing at the end of March to accommodate the new tenant. She said they moved up the date because, the city of Bangor asked them to. Beem said since L.L. Bean decided to close the Bangor location it's been working closely with the city.

  • Reply to

    Pier 1 is Getting Wayfaired Too

    by chuckpalot Dec 17, 2015 11:53 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 1, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    Restoration Hardware (RH) Downgraded today due partly to "heavily promotional" (discounted) sales. Another high end brick and mortar furniture outlet feeling the Wayfair pinch? Hmmm.....

    That stock has been cut in half of the last year.

  • Wayfair will book it's first BILLION DOLLAR quarter this year.
    Wayfair will book it's first quarterly profit (and will remain profitable thereafter)
    Fidelity will increase it's stake to 15% of the company.
    None of the large stakeholders will sell their shares, though some will add.
    Amazon will concede the home furnishings eCommerce market to Wayfair (a wise move).
    The shorts will suffer greatly before finally capitulating as Wayfair slices through the $50's and $60's

  • File this under "Good News Can't Be Contained"

    Now it's pre-market, Thursday, Feb. 25. Shock and Awe Baby!

  • "The key point of the bear thesis is W's business model and ability to generate profits, and we now forecast the company hitting a milestone in 4Q15 - positive EBITDA and FCF - ahead of the consensus timeline, and for profitability to improve in CY16," Citi said.

    Same thing I've been saying for weeks and it's the #1 reason the shorts are losing big and will continue to suffer as one by one their lame arguments against Wayfair are vaporized.

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Jan 28, 2016 10:26 AM Flag

    How time flies!! Six more months later, we have our Beer deal almost done, powerful & predictable results just in, and very healthy guidance for 2016.

    The beat goes on and MO remains a big ATM printing and spitting out cash with market beating total returns. Remains a wealth building investment, a solid and steady CORE HOLDING!

    Good Luck and enjoy 2016

  • Reply to

    Sorry Bears!

    by chuckpalot Jan 26, 2016 5:21 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Jan 26, 2016 7:50 PM Flag

    Never mind the $5 Billion currency conversion hit. That's FIVE BILLION in 90 days. That Greenback!

  • chuckpalot by chuckpalot Jan 26, 2016 5:21 PM Flag

    Just another record Q to choke on, over $200 billion in cash, more android defections than ever, recurring revenue model taking hold, TV selling faster than ever, Apple Music amazing launch w over 10 million paid subs, watch taking over the wearable market w over 50% share, and on, and on....

    Apple remains the best fruit company on the PLANET. Onward and Upward....

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Jan 22, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    WayFair is gonna crush it. Remember, If they announce EBITA profits, and a doubling of FCF from the prior Q, the BULLS will stampede and trample the desperate bears. Gonna be epic!


    Wayfair has signed a lease for an additional 100,000 square feet, expanding its Back Bay headquarters at Copley Place by 40 percent. The lease closed late last year and renovations are set to be complete by March. The company had 3,250 employees at the end of Q3 2015 and it's hiring by the hundreds. Boston Business Journal reports.

  • Wayfair's (NYSE: W) CEO Niraj Shah, CFO Michael Fleisher, and Kate Gulliver, Investor Relations presented at ICR and Piper Jaffray analyst, Neely Tamminga hosted an investor lunch with the company where 3 key issues were discussed:

    Wayfair's imported furniture and flooring are safe: Despite recent concerns around fewer than 10 of Wayfair's 7M+ items containing formaldehyde back in November, an article published by Furniture Today on January 5 points out that the American Home Furnishings Alliance (AHFA) has called into question the testing methods used back in November to support the short thesis. The AHFA purchased and tested for themselves the same items and found that they are in compliance with current formaldehyde regulations.

    Overlap with Amazon is shrinking: Management indicated that overlap is minimal and shrinking. This trend is driven by two main factors: 1) suppliers are increasingly allocating more selection to Wayfair vs. Amazon and 2) Wayfair is increasingly offering items that cannot be found elsewhere.

    Platform innovation continues: Management remains focused on improving the personalization and product discovery process as well as continuing to scale their own photography. In addition, Wayfair has been testing virtual reality technologies to help customers visualize their rooms which could be made more widely accessible by new smartphone camera technologies over time.

    No change to Overweight rating or $73 PT.

  • Complete one-stop shopping with samples, design experts, and pre-approved installation contractors across the country. Nice! Putting HD, Lowes, LL, and Tile City on notice.

    Now Whitney, get busy my boy! Thousands of new SKU's await your inspection. Go fetch the Formaldehyde bone with your short-sighted inspection protocols. Surely you can find something to bi&ch about. lol

  • When: March 4, pre-market
    What: Another (but even bigger) Huge Beat, both top and bottom lines.

    For some, the Q4 15 results will be proof of concept that Wayfair has emerged as a formidable eCommerce juggernaut. in a niche they continue to both define and lock up. The surprises will include a doubling of FCF, (yeah, you can forget that secondary. Won't ever happen) and a loss of a nickel or better - and possibly break even - on the bottom line. Continued trend of rapid new customer acquisitions, increasing return buyer rates - both absolute and as a % of total revs, increased avg. order ticket and higher margins.

    The cherry on top? Another raise in guidance, of course.

    I'm very happy to have doubled up on my W holding in 2015, sweetened by some short term swing trades. My 2016 price target for Wayfair is $78. And I'm trying to be conservative. If they go profitable for the year, all bets are off and we get the mother of all short squeezes. Naturally, there's always the buyout angle hanging over Wayfair but that's more likely a 2017 story. Until then, enjoy the ride!

    Can 12 million shorts be wrong? Won't be the first time.....

    Happy New Year and Happy Investing returns!!