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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OPTR) Message Board

chuckpalot 83 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2015 10:41 AM Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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  • Unless you're a glutton for punishment...

  • Mine has almost nothing do you with the thing you hang on the wall. It's all about the brains running it, how we interact with it, and the content we digest.

    Making panels is a low margin play (has been for decades!), and that's how I interpret the rumors; that AAPL has seen the light and is pouring their considerable resources into what makes the panel worth looking at and how we interact with it. Simple! And hugely profitable!!

  • Looking at the results announced by Home Depot and TJX (especially their Home Goods brand) confirms not only that the economy continues to improve but also that consumers are spending more on their homes. In fact, it's looking like one of the hottest retail sectors right now.

    This equates to a healthy tailwind for Wayfair as it builds out her brands while capturing greater share of the online home market.


  • Every key metric is moving in the right direction - from new customer acquisition, repeat buyers, avg. $ order, revenues, and brand recognition.

    We're still in the early stages here, but Shah and Conine are proving the model and executing very well. All W needs is time - someday they'll be a household name and default destination. Profits likely in Q4 2016, and by then the share price will be much higher.

    Shorty gonna lose here. Big time.

  • Reply to

    ZU Brush Painting Wayfair?

    by chuckpalot May 6, 2015 4:30 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot May 7, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Wayfair seems to be doing all the right things from a marketing perspective. Their back-end is unmatched in the industry. They even have one of the best mobile shopping apps I've ever played with - great interface, easy navigation, very slick - which is great for the millenials who love shopping mobile.

    I sold 30% of my position @ $34 a few weeks back, since I was up almost 80% since Nov/Dec buys.

    Will add back if we see more weakness this week; have a limit order in @ #26 which I thought could get filled yesterday but didn't. I'm betting on another little pop after Monday but I don't want to chase it and I still have plenty.


  • Zulily spit the bit today on lousy numbers and horrible guidance. Simpletons think that must be bad for W too. Short-sited comparisons will leave short sellers exposed. If MacDonalds' is losing customers does that mean Chipotle is too? Exactly.

    We'll know soon enough when Wayfair reports next week. Keep in mind, they were already more than half way into Q1 when they raised guidance, so not much chance of missing there. Guess it'll boil down to guidance.

  • Reply to

    Fear of Clowns Hurting MCD

    by chuckpalot Oct 28, 2014 11:23 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot May 4, 2015 4:44 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    Fear of Clowns Hurting MCD

    by chuckpalot Oct 28, 2014 11:23 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot May 4, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    So, here we are, six+ months later and what has changed? Pretty much nothing.

    I warned last year that if the board replaced the CEO with an internal promotion no material change was likely.

    Looking at today's "turnaround" plan proves my theory. Different clown, same suit.

    Wholesale change is the only thing that will stem the tide - calling a new sandwich "artisan" is just stupid and insulting, especially when it's a tad rubbery.

    Maybe, MCD should just become a REIT given there cast real estate holdings and triple the dividend. I'd take that and a some fries over the "new" plan.

    Still a SELL.

  • Research analysts at Telsey Advisory Group boosted their price target on shares of Dunkin Brands Group (NASDAQ:DNKN) from $54.00 to $57.00 in a report released on Friday. The firm currently has an “outperform” rating on the stock. Telsey Advisory Group’s price target would indicate a potential upside of 10.66% from the stock’s previous close.

  • Super DNKN Q1 results, great Boston Marathon on Monday, and the Patriots visit the White House today. It's all good in the neighborhood!!

  • Solid. Very Solid. Let the run to $50+ begin!!

  • Reply to


    by chuckpalot Mar 11, 2015 5:18 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 23, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    I love it when I'm wrong about being too gloomy!

    A 2.7% bump in store comps?! That is very Coolatta!!!

    Raising guidance for both top and bottom lines? Looks like a slam Dunkin!!!

    K-pack distribution model already impacting sales and profits?! Hotter than a breakfast burrito!!!

    US and global unit expansion on track?! You betcha!

    And how about that red-headed step child that everyone ignores? Baskin comps up 8%. May not fly under the radar for much longer.

    Nice Q DNKN!! And of course, new highs coming....oh wait, they're here already.

  • Looks like Fidelity was increasing their W holdings in the first quarter. It'll be interesting to see the filings by them and others who understand the enormous potential of Wayfair and want very large passive stakes in the company as the story unfolds.

    Would not be surprised to see Fido end up with ~15% of the float. We'll know soon enough.

  • Reply to

    A Few WATCH INDUSTRY Factoids Worth Noting

    by chuckpalot Apr 10, 2015 4:46 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 13, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    I wonder how many C-level watch industry execs will sit up and take notice this week after Apple sheds more light on initial launch figures? A lot of them have been sounding like Ballmer dissing the iPhone in 2007 (two parts hubris, one part denial, and one part stupidity).

    I predict a lot of these old-school watch guys will be out of work in a few years, admitting like Ballmer did with the aid of hindsight, that they simply underestimated the appeal of Apple Watch. Doh!!!

    History is a great teacher!

  • Apple is effectively putting the watch industry on notice. Here is a look at the addressable market for the Apple Watch; much bigger and more lucrative than I realized:

    1. # of watches sold annually = 1,200,000,000

    2. Swiss watches sold annually = 29.2 million

    3. ASP of a Swiss watch = $739.

    4. Swiss watch market share by $$ value = 54%

    5. Sales Leaders by Annual Revenue: Swatch/Omega = $8.8 Billion, Rolex = $4.5 Billion

    6. Largest watch markets by $ value sales: 1. Hong Kong, 2. USA, 3. China, 4. France 5. Germany. Together, these five markets account for over half of global sales volume.

    Source: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 10, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    "What do I win?"

    I assume you're shareholder so you've won already! But because you showed your math work, we're throwing in a new watch for you. Well, not "new" exactly, but it's a gently used Casio I won't be needing soon.

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 10, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    Not that any of us Bulls are surprised, but the sell-out rate across just a small handful of countries is quite telling.

    Time to raise the estimates and price targets. Again.

    Version 2 of the Watch will be the one that really moves the needle. And by the end of 2017, half the planet will have an Apple watch.

    Midas got nothin' on Cook & Co.

  • KESTENBAUM: Wayfair sells something online that a lot of people are used to buying in stores - furniture. You may have seen the ads. What is the heaviest thing you sell?
    SHAH: We have some beds, for example, that can weigh 1,500 pounds, like big, ornate, carved wood, you know, huge pillars. And so the delivery on some of these items is tricky to say the least.
    KESTENBAUM: The company went public just last year. Lots of people bought the stock, presumably thinking, great idea, a huge online furniture store. But there were also skeptics, people apparently so convinced this dream would fail that they bet against the company. They shorted the stock. If Wayfair fails, the short sellers make money.
    SHAH: You know, it doesn't really bother me that folks short the stock. I was just surprised, to be honest.
    KESTENBAUM: Doesn't it bug you a little bit?
    SHAH: You know, it's - I guess, maybe annoying would be a better term.
    KESTENBAUM: When a company ends up on the most shorted list, it's often because there are two groups of people with totally opposite views on something critical to the company's future. In this case, Shah thinks, the controversial thing is those ads.
    KESTENBAUM: The debate is not over the ads themselves, but the amount of money Wayfair is spending on advertising. The ads are helping sell lots of barstools and four-poster beds, but the company is not making a profit yet. Shah says the company will be able to scale back on ads once the Wayfair name is out there. He's
    made his case with data and numbers on repeat customers, but that has not seemed to sway the short sellers. They're still out there. He's not sure why.
    SHAH: The degree of the short interest means that folks are super convinced that they're right. And I guess that is the piece I'm missing.
    KESTENBAUM: Would you like to meet someone who has short your company? If we could find someone, would you talk to him?
    SHAH: Oh, yeah. I'd be happy to.

  • A Boston-based evening magazine TV show recently aired a segment focused on the changing landscape of the workplace and how millennials gravitate to progressive work cultures. Two Boston-based business are highlighted, including Wayfair.

    Easy to find (sorry, Y! prohibits link postings) - just google "WCVB & Wayfair" to find the vid.

  • chuckpalot by chuckpalot Mar 31, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Muted volume/selling pressure implies insiders not anxious to sell at these levels. And I don't blame them.

    Shorts can't catch a break on this one. Lol

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