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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

chuckpalot 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2016 2:42 PM Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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  • Reply to

    About to jump in

    by arc871 Apr 11, 2016 1:38 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 12, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    I like your thinking, arc. The big pic and longer view says it's time to scale in for nice returns. Been building a position in BP for a few months now under $30 and will add more over the coming few months. The divvy makes waiting worthwhile, and it does appear as though the storm clouds over oil, and BP in particular, are starting to lift. I'm looking at a three to five year hold for market crushing returns.

    PS: Did the exact same thing with MO six years ago and have made a fortune with it. Still holding most of it due to pricing power, Inbev deal, and shareholder friendly sentiment.

    Good Luck!

  • Relax longs, Wayfair gonna CRUSH IT when they announce in three weeks. And they'll guide UP for 2116. Plus, more new initiatives will be rolled out this year and next. Before you know it, Wayfair will not only be running in the black they'll become a darling of the post-Amazon ecommerce world; a case-study in David vs. Goliath.

    Are the shorts getting nervous? You betcha. They've tried everything for six months to destroy W but have failed miserably. And now TIME is running out for them and they'd love for a chance to cover at break even in the $20's and low $30's. But how? Desperate tweets? Cool idea! lol It's all they got left (pun intended).

    Don't be swayed by a couple two-bit shorts looking for fame (and lost $$$). And their lemming followers here and elsewhere should simply be ignored. They know less than nothing about Wayfair and are gonna get hurt bad blindly following their short puppeteers.

    Do your homework and understand what's really going on with this biz. Shorty won't tell you that Wayfair was profitable for several years (7-8% net profits) under it's original CSN brand running over 200 websites. Nor will shorty highlight how much smart money is holding Wayfair, or that the majority of their LARGEST shareholders actually ADDED to their holdings in Q4/15. These are smart guys who know what they're doing and have a deep knowledge of Wayfair's management, history, biz model, and ramp up. The exit strategy is in place, and as long as Wayfair continues to EXECUTE, the outcome will be hugely profitable.

    That is unless you were stupid enough to short this puppy @ 22, and again at 28, more at 34, and on and on.

    They're trapped and desperate and I have no pity for them.

    Long and Strong,

  • Reply to

    Senate to Pearson; "Pigs Get Slaughtered!"

    by chuckpalot Apr 27, 2016 11:25 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 29, 2016 12:34 PM Flag

    Filings won't save VRX. The more light shed, the worse this company will look. More lawsuits coming, fines, and more political and legal headwinds that essentially degenerates drug companies that gouge customers, deal in shady financing, and create no value.

  • Pigs who gouge excessively get put on the spit. Lots of Canadian Bacon coming to market.

    Trouble NOT over for these shares.

  • Longs, take note. Many large Institutional Investors are joining the Wayfair parade, and several large owners are increasing their holdings in this juggernaut, as seen in the Q4 2015 13G Filings.

    Welcome to newcomers Whalerock, Hennessy Funds, and Bank of Nova Scotia. These and many others took new, large positions in Wayfair last quarter.

    Interestingly, several of Wayfair's largest holders ADDED to their position in Q4. Fidelity, JP Morgan, Blackrock just can't seem to get enough of this (not so) little engine that could.

    Never a bad idea to follow the smart money.

  • First came consolidation under the Wayfair brand, then came massive expansion leading to critical mass, and now we finally have Wayfair exclusives; a move that widens the moat and distinguishes Wayfair as more than a powerful aggregator. It's evolving into a unique experience that will further fuel growth, expansion, and long-term success.

    This move raises the bar significantly and sends a loud message throughout the furniture industry. Couple this with their expansion into plumbing, design and contracting services, and you can see the beginnings of their future plans taking shape. What's next? Replacement Windows? Why not! Siding? Roofing? Plumbing and Electrical? A vertically integrated, lower cost, high service one stop shop for EVERYTHING Home. It's BLUE SKY baby. Just watch (and PROFIT). Buy the dips and enjoy the ride...

    Disruption. Disruption. Disruption. And we've only just begun...

  • chuckpalot by chuckpalot Feb 19, 2016 11:53 AM Flag

    Heading out for a nice and warm visit to the Yucatan tomorrow, with limited access to the net. So, I'm gonna miss the fireworks when Wayfair announces their results next week. I know it's gonna be quite a fun party for the LONGS, so enjoy!

    No high fives for shorty tho, he's getting a hefty squeeze from Max Pain instead. Could get ugly, especially when they desperately try to conjure up more inane reasons why Wayfair can't succeed while messing up their pants.

    See ya at the after-party!!

  • Reply to

    Senate to Pearson; "Pigs Get Slaughtered!"

    by chuckpalot Apr 27, 2016 11:25 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Apr 29, 2016 2:42 PM Flag

    Back to $20's next week.

  • Reply to

    Shorts Getting Desperate & For Good Reason

    by chuckpalot Feb 5, 2016 4:34 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 5, 2016 6:54 PM Flag

    Every time these morons post, they reveal how much they really know about Wayfair. Can't debate with ignorance.

    Northern, keep shorting it buddy. You deserve the final result, as in "a fool and his money...."

  • chuckpalot by chuckpalot Feb 15, 2016 11:17 AM Flag

    Other key takeaways:

    Wayfair’s recently announced private label brand launch is just the beginning. Over time, “a huge percentage” of the assortment (which currently runs to 7 million items) will be proprietary. However, Wayfair will not own the inventory.

    A bridal registry is on the horizon. “You can get the housewares you need for your kitchen and the bedroom set you need for the bedroom and the throw pillows and the glassware and do that in one place.” A financing component is also in the works. Rollouts will take place this year and next. Wayfair is on track to be profitable by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016. Because Wayfair has been taking market share so rapidly – Q3 revenues jumped nearly 77% – it’s less apt to notice slack in consumer spending, said Fleisher.

    “There is a gigantic, secular systemic trend of the movement from brick and mortar to online,” he added. “We’re not seeing something that says the consumer’s slowed down – but we’re also sitting in the catcher’s seat of a massive shift to online in our category, where it’s ‘winners-take-most.’ And at this point, we’re the winner.”

  • San Francisco – Wayfair does not slot itself in the “ecommerce” box, cfo Michael Fleisher told attendees at
    “Wayfair is a mass market retailer. We are building a long-term, sustainable mass market brand. No one’s done that in a long time, and I think we’re doing that quite successfully,” he said.

    Wayfair tries not to focus too much on driving every site visit to a sale, he said. Its core customer – a 45-year-old woman with a household income of $82,000 – is likely to be saving up for a single-room project such as a bedroom update. She’ll visit the site multiple times, placing items on an idea board. When she’s got enough money, she’ll pull the trigger. She’s now primed to turn to Wayfair for smaller purchases, he said.

    “I’m trying to get that customer at that moment where she walks out of her home, she looks down at the doormat, she sees that it’s threadbare…[R]ather than going to go to some big box store where they’re going to have five or six of them – which might have been her natural inclination – I’m trying to get to an engagement place where she says: ‘Wayfair, they’re going to have hundreds of them.’”

  • Reply to

    Shorts Getting Desperate & For Good Reason

    by chuckpalot Feb 5, 2016 4:34 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 9, 2016 7:55 PM Flag

    Nice back-peddle. Ooops. Guess you are a lemming short after all.

  • Reply to

    A Few Wayfair Predictions for 2016

    by chuckpalot Jan 29, 2016 3:13 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Mar 16, 2016 3:06 PM Flag

    Hi Bob, Here's your requested update for 2016 predictions:

    * Wayfair will greatly expand it's product set to include plumbing and lighting fixtures, flooring, and kitchen essentials. Look also for expanded contractor intitiatives for bigger jobs like siding, painting, flooring, and replacement windows - all vertically managed by Wayfair.

    *Wayfair will roll out in the UK, Germany and Canada, essentially doubling the size of their market.

    *Wayfair will continue it's runaway momentum in the US market, taking share from EVERYONE.

    * Wayfair will gain greater traction with Millenials, Gen Xers, as well as the growing number of Boomers who are downsizing/refurnishing, or outfitting new retirement homes. Repeat metrics will continue to prove the model works.

    *Wayfair will add over 2,500 jobs, growing headcount by 80%. Boston, Maine, Texas, Salt Lake, and the UK all growing to meet consumer demand and maintain extraordinary service levels.

    * Wayfair will turn down at least two acquisition offers from US-based companies, and another from a foreign entity eager to break into the US home furnishings market.

    *Finally, YOU will continue to lose on your short (though I think you have no position at all - just like soap-boxing flawed logic), or you will not get long until missing the first 300% gain ($63.50 for me - which will happen in 2016)

  • BANGOR, Maine (NEWS CENTER) -- Online home furnishings retailer Wayfair plans to bring nearly 1,000 full-time jobs to the state by opening customer service and sales operations in Bangor and Brunswick, the company announced on Thursday.

    The Wayfair operation in Bangor will occupy a space currently used as a call center by L.L. Bean.

    The company confirmed it plans to add 450 full time jobs when it moves into that building. Bangor City Counselors said this is big for the area.

    The L.L. Bean call center will close in March, although it was originally scheduled to close in May. L.L Bean moved up the closing day to accommodate the city of Bangor and Wayfair.

    Wayfair expects to take over the Bangor location by this August.

    The new locations will add 450 jobs in Bangor, and more than 500 in Brunswick. Wayfair announced on Thursday that its new location at Brunswick Landing will have job openings for inside sales and service.

  • Reply to

    Pier 1 is Getting Wayfaired Too

    by chuckpalot Dec 17, 2015 11:53 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 1, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    Restoration Hardware (RH) Downgraded today due partly to "heavily promotional" (discounted) sales. Another high end brick and mortar furniture outlet feeling the Wayfair pinch? Hmmm.....

    That stock has been cut in half of the last year.

  • ...who covered under $30 last week. I know a few, though none here. lol

    Meanwhile, we longs who added under $30 already have 30+% gains booked in five days. Not too shabby.

  • gonna be ugly

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Feb 4, 2016 4:39 PM Flag

    Another gem, this one in Goldman's upgrade of Wayfair this morning:

    "Wayfair is outperforming most, if not all, in the home category online and our channel checks indicate this continued in 4Q. We raise our 4Q revenue estimate to $684mn, ahead of consensus of $667mn and guidance of $625-665mn. We raise our 2015-2017 revenue and EBITDA estimates 6% on average as brand awareness, merchandising, personalization, and logistics are driving improved repeat purchases."

    Schwartz expects a turn to profitability. "The bigger catalyst, in our view, is proving sustainability of the business model, illustrated by a return to profit. We forecast 2016 adjusted EBITDA of $24mn following five years of losses. Our analysis of unit economics (Exhibit 4) has given us improved comfort."

    The growing consensus is that W is not only kicking serious butt, but margin expansion is ahead of schedule.

    I agree!

  • Every time this happens the runway to "return to normal" gets extended. For some consumers, each passing health scare will be the final straw. For others, they'll just get numb to it and, so long as it doesn't flare up at their local store, they'll roll the dice and take a chance.

    Personally, not a shareholder nor a patron. I live within 20 minutes of at least five or six authentic Mexican joints and see no reason to downgrade to fast food fare with a side of who knows what...

    Meanwhile, the Chipotle nightmare rolls on and will reflect on the stock for the foreseeable future.

    Rating: AVOID

  • Seems impossible? Only to short-sighted short sellers, perhaps.

    It already looks like AMZN is ceding this niche to Wayfair. They're frying bigger fish, less embedded in the space, and frankly, don't do it nearly as well or with the service and selection that Wayfair boasts.

    Distractions abound at AMZN. Web services, logistics, trucking and drones, Prime services, and their own private label gizmo's takes lots of energy and capital. And pressure is mounting for them to start showing consistent, reliable profits after 20 years of build out. I admire Bezos tremendously, but he's spreading his company so thin, with so many cash-sucking initiatives, that sooner or later they'll start focusing on the true cash cows and merely 'play" in other spaces.

    The bottom line is Wayfair has built a better mouse trap and is smartly expanding the brand with world-class logistics, service, pricing, and selection - including exclusive items that can only be found at Wayfair.

    Those familiar with "The Art of War" understand it's game over in this battle, and was never going to be a real fight given Wayfair's history, experience, and laser focus.