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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OPTR) Message Board

chuckpalot 49 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 21, 2014 11:39 AM Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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  • Because I care more about the health of Apples business and managements ability to deliver both products and results.

    Speaking of results, think about what the NEXT 120 DAYS will likely mean for Apple. It starts with the new phones...goosing this Q's results for a couple weeks then more record setting sell through for the upcoming holiday quarter. Can you say PENT UP DEMAND? Sure you can! Now say it on a GLOBAL BASIS and things get nutty fast.

    Wall Street is wising up to the fact that "The Law of Large Numbers" has a flip side; the one that shows the power of a Tsunami Upgrade Cycle for a coveted (read sticky) product/ecosystem that will blow the doors off every iphone sales projection for the coming year.

    Throw in one or two complementary new products for added revenue streams, upgrades to imac and pad, and for good measure, a couple thousand IBMers selling Tablets into the corporate space, and you start to get a sense of what's in store for the rest of this year and 2015.

    That's right, more than enough to move the needle for a sustained run.

    All is well in the orchard my friends!

  • Interesting development with BK/Tim Hortons. I'm not really buying the tax inversion strategy, though it's at least a short term benefit. More like 3G wants to grow into a huge YUM type biz..

    I'm not hoping for one, but this could put DNKN into buyout territory. There's a couple XL players who'd love to put this arrow in their quiver. Int'l players too.

    Time will tell. Meanwhile I was adding to my DNKN position over the summer swoon. I like buying winners when they're on sale.

  • Reply to

    Is DNKNs Now a Takeover Target?

    by chuckpalot Aug 25, 2014 4:01 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Aug 27, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Some good thoughts! I agree that there is good synergies between BK/TH - both just got stronger from the deal.

    So, if the #2 burger joint marries the #3 North American coffee joint, does that prompt #1 (MCD) to call and raise by taking out DNKN?? I don't know how the MCD board views their shrinking US biz. I know they just replaced the head of the US division last week after a two-year stint, so they must be feeling the heat. Just don't know if the Board is blaming the guy or the model - and whether they're in denial about changing consumer behavior/demand, but the numbers don't lie and SS sales have been slipping steadily in the US for a while now. Anyway, that's the first place I look when thinking who may put a target on DNKN.

    Again, I still think DNKN has a very bright future as a stand-alone company. The more I think about it, the more it seems like once somebody starts a industry consolidation the more likely other will be to react.

    Any ideas on valuing DNKN?

  • So Timmy calls me last week and like, he's all in a panic. Seems he and EC can't agree on what to call the new wearable coming next month, and I'm like, "Dude, remember that band we played in during middle school?"

    And he's all like "Ya, so what? We weren't even that good".

    And I'm like, "That's not the point. The point is we were The Band. Why not just stop overthinking it and call it the iBand?! That works on so many levels, it's a no-brainer!!!"

    He thanked me, hung up, and sent me a check for $2.3 million dollars.

    Then my damn dog woke me up before I could spend it......

  • Reply to

    Yahoo! Msg Boarder Names Apple's New Wearable

    by chuckpalot Aug 29, 2014 11:49 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Aug 29, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    BTW, the iBand actually WILL tell time, like a watch, but that's about 1% of its function.

    iBand. It fits around your iHand.

  • Reply to

    Donuts

    by knb97 Aug 28, 2014 6:58 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Sep 3, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    Keep in mind, donuts represent less than 10% of sales (which is partly why I believe they should drop them from their name - just Dunkin's). No, this is a beverage company first and foremost, a baked goods purveyor (muffins/bagels,etc) and a specialty sandwich shop. All three categories outsell donuts.

    I grew up eating these donuts, and still have a few every year. My go-to choice with their coffee (I enjoy both hot and iced) is a sausage/egg/and cheese on a toasted bagel. Tasty and filling!

    I noticed the new DNKN in CA that opened yesterday is offering two flavors of coffee; traditional and a darker roast. Smart move to wean folks off of SBUX over-roasted and slightly bitter fare.

  • Something tells me they know their window of opportunity is closing fast. Next week will be HUGE for Apple bulls - not to mention, for Apple itself.

    If we get two new phones, a wearable, and NFC payments (

  • Is it true Samsung announced some new phones today? Does anyone even care?

  • Oh, pardon me. I've just been informed it's Pacific Crest that downgraded. Now, just who the H-E double hockey stix is that??? Never heard of 'em.

  • Reply to

    All This Selling From a Falcon Crest Downgrade?

    by chuckpalot Sep 3, 2014 3:42 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Sep 3, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    We've been sellers of AMZN for that very reason. Not sure how that correlates to AAPL.

    I thought it was raising $$$ to purchase naked selfies. lol

  • Imagine owning stock in a company that will EARN over $1,000,000,000.00 in PROFIT each and every week for the next 65.

    Another first in the history of Planet Earth. Thanks Apple!!!

  • And guess who'll be scalping a few pennies on each and every transaction that gets processed. Globally. By billions of consumers.

    Huge new category for Apple. HUGE.

  • chuckpalot chuckpalot Sep 5, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    You got it!

    Folks generally don't understand how the whole issuer/processor industry works. But, if Apple does it right (and I'm sure they will) all the big boys will benefit while Apple carves out this new niche and takes it mainstream.

    The numbers get scary after a while...

  • Reply to

    Is DNKNs Now a Takeover Target?

    by chuckpalot Aug 25, 2014 4:01 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Sep 8, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    I'm sure you've noticed both volume and price rising since the big boys all came back from vacation.

    Five day chart says it all.

  • Reply to

    Back up The Bus

    by cognitivehacker Sep 7, 2014 7:11 PM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Sep 12, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    Bruce,

    Thanks for the updates from the field! Not surprising, but still reassuring. This is the dawn of a new age California Goldrush a la DNKN!!!

  • While this thread is useless, MO offers investors spectacular returns - especially those who seek dividends + capital appreciation. Tobacco politics aside, this "cash machine" qualifies as a core holding for prudent investors who enjoy growth, income, and a good nights sleep.

    Went long four years ago @ $20 - $24 and still see no reason to sell a single share.

  • Altria controls almost a 30% interest in SABMiller which is rumored to be in the cross hairs of InBev. Takeout price tag rumored at $125 BILLION = ~$40 BILLION for Altria. As a MO investor, I'd love to see this value unlocked.

  • Reply to

    For MO Noobs Curious about Today's POP

    by chuckpalot Sep 15, 2014 10:49 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Sep 16, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    Depends on how the deal is structured (assuming one happens at all!). They could chose to take an equity position in InBev, and carry that value on the balance sheet much like they do now with their SAB stake.

    They could do an equity + cash deal, or take all cash. I believe this is a very good mgmt team that could find ways to put a windfall like this to good use - and not in the form of a special divvy. A nice strategic acquisition seems more likely.

    It'll be interesting to watch this unfold!

  • Reply to

    Ignore the Soapbox Blowhards Here

    by chuckpalot Sep 15, 2014 10:29 AM
    chuckpalot chuckpalot Sep 16, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    A bump reminder...

  • chuckpalot by chuckpalot Sep 17, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    The executive team gave a presentation during it's investor/analyst event this morning. There's an audio and PDF link on the DNKN website for anyone interested in the presentation.

    My guess is the initial wave of selling on the open was the result of disclosing some near term comp store weakness for this Q ( 2 - 2.5%). Guidance provided for next year all looked good to me. There is, and will be for a while, a very large growth opportunity for DNKN (and BR) both here and around the world.

    Go check it out and draw your own conclusions.

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