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Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. Message Board

chunkybunky2527 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 9, 2015 11:43 PM Member since: Feb 11, 2004
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  • Reply to

    This is a forever stock

    by hedgecutter42 Nov 2, 2015 2:46 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Nov 9, 2015 11:43 PM Flag

    People are still eating fast food hamburgers for sure, but more and more they are choosing fast food burgers that cost marginally more, and deliver much better ingredients, and much better taste. Just about every MCD product is full of ingredients a layman can't even pronounce. MCD has taken burger-engineering too far, and the shine's coming off their thinly-veneered flavor profiles. And what constantly amazes me is that MCD still can't figure out how to deliver their product to the customer hot & fresh - burger engineering and all, and yet 7-8 times out of 10 you will get extremely lukewarm or cold food served to you.

    HSY still a bit overvalued, it should be good nibbling below 80 pps IMO. Of course I also agree that this is a stock with a nice product-moat, which does give it "forever stock" status to some degree. Just remember that anything can change over time and product-moats can disappear. In fact, I think MCD is a prime example of a stock that is losing it's product-moat characteristics, as Smashburger, 5 Guys, Shakeshack, Sonic, etc are all attacking MCD's core products, and from all angles. Yes, MCD reported a nice Q. But I don't think they are out of the woods long term by any means.

  • chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Nov 5, 2015 11:23 PM Flag

    Go ahead and cut I say. Just keep the dividend raise and buybacks! I love how a stock goes into the crapper just because Wall Street decides they have to finally pay the employees and that hurts profitability. 3-4 years from now there might be articles written how much better WMT employees have it than TGT, HD or maybe even COST employees.

  • Reply to

    Ackman can sell anytime

    by idbtc Nov 5, 2015 10:41 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Nov 5, 2015 11:08 PM Flag

    "so many good plays out there,…"

    I'm not sure that's true. But the rest of what you say might be. The fact is the guy is just not emotionally invested as most of the rank and file employees there. So the risk is if Ackman reaches the point where he just doesn't want to think about it any more, he can just blow out. Tell that to other thousand employees that have just gone on the roller-coaster ride and are ready to be unceremoniously dumped at the park gate.

  • Reply to

    Can Anyone Explain of the Preferred Will Work?

    by epholder Oct 26, 2015 10:18 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 26, 2015 11:19 PM Flag

    Wow, all of that just to increase the dividend a bit longer. What's he going to pull out of the hat next quarter/next year to keep it going? Convertible preferred on the preferred?

  • Reply to

    Big Foot Rig impact

    by topline1 Oct 22, 2015 5:27 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 26, 2015 10:56 PM Flag

    I would think so. Under any circumstance, this is not a positive development.

  • Reply to

    Why do You own the stock?

    by exstrdrvr Oct 26, 2015 6:54 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 26, 2015 10:50 PM Flag

    It is not that simplistic. Generally, bonds are "guaranteed" only by the income assigned to paying them off (along with interest). If that income profile changes so might the "guaranteed" income stream.

  • Reply to

    Why do You own the stock?

    by exstrdrvr Oct 26, 2015 6:54 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 26, 2015 10:47 PM Flag

    exs, where you are going wrong is when you believe whole-heartedly that Kinder has guaranteed anything in blood. You have too much confidence in what you're being told (or fed?). Just one thing to think about. Solar proliferation and battery storage. They have advanced significantly in the past few years. Think about batteries storing solar energy just enough so power plants can power down big-time at a predicable rate (which is how batteries generally work). "Take the edge off" peak demand. The consequences at the margin will not be good for natty, coal or nuke. Combine that with electrically charged cars, and it could spell trouble to the entire fossil-fuel-derived energy development complex that has developed over the last 100+ years. I realize I might sound all Jetsons, but with all-do respect, you should maybe re-align your thinking some. I

  • Reply to

    Conference Call Analysis

    by kmiholder Oct 22, 2015 8:43 AM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 26, 2015 10:31 PM Flag

    Yeah, but RK is going to the equity-preferred well to finance a dividend raise? Doesn't something about that raise a red flag with you? #$%$ is that all about? There are just too many layers of finance here; and historically, that has been a recipe for crash.

  • Reply to

    Mea Culpa...

    by thewzrdaz Aug 5, 2015 11:40 AM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 24, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    Owning this stock is like playing a shell-game. Credit rating near junk, they are over-leveraged. Borrowing rates not likely to go lower for them, and distinctly possible they rise (esp with debt downgrades). Not to mention counter-party risk. Share price collapsing eliminates another avenue of finance to tap. Their business model is poison IMO.

  • Reply to

    PGN silence may be a clever tactic after all..

    by staccani Oct 14, 2015 12:24 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 17, 2015 2:06 AM Flag

    50% of par would not then include the interest payments that have occurred since holding; so really, bondholders in that type of scenario would actually be recovering better than 50%. Taking a loss yes, but just like a stock holder, bondholders have to be willing to lick wounds and move on. The statement that PGN is a melting ice cube of assets is still very much valid at this point.

  • Reply to

    It's Time To Boycott

    by pepinomolino Oct 14, 2015 9:48 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 14, 2015 11:14 PM Flag

    So peeps like you will now order that same Chinese "junk" thru AMZN, and there won't even be a person employed that fills it - it will be an automated picker and a drone that delivers it.

  • Reply to

    The Smoking Gun Is The Brazilian Contracts

    by president_abe Oct 7, 2015 1:30 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 8, 2015 12:53 AM Flag

    here's the problem, if PGN's lawyers sue, instead of making NE truly accountable, they will likely urge PGN mgmt to take some sort of settlement, which will likely not help PGN and will not help NE. It will only help the lawyers, who generally specialize in milking their clients.

  • chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Oct 5, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    Why do you think DIS also needs to constantly raise their theme park ticket prices then too? Eventually, it's going to backfire on them. Admission prices will go too high, parents will stop bringing their kids and DIS will become irrelevant maybe 2 generations from now. All because mgmt is too greedy and can't help but skin the sheep.

  • chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Sep 29, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Solar will be the way forward.

  • chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Sep 24, 2015 12:48 AM Flag

    What you don't seem to consider is that PBR are basically going broke themselves. Have you ever tried squeezing water out of a rock? If you need to hire professional squeezers (aka, lawyers) to try, it can be a painfully expensive process to watch!

  • Reply to

    Out of court restructuring coming.

    by insider_expert Sep 23, 2015 12:57 PM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Sep 23, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    I don't see how they get any waiver of covenants when just last week S&P downgraded their debt. It's truly sad to see a decent company get sucked down by the downdraft of global oil price collapse.

  • chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Sep 22, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    PGN bondholders/stockholders/management are in a "melting ice cube" scenario, where the value of the underlying assets is declining by the day. If it continues, the underlying asset values will simply melt away until they aren't worth anything. In that type of scenario, everybody loses except short-sellers

  • chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Sep 17, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    It is a negotiation between the secured creditors and management, usually prompted by the secured creditors of a company. There are all sorts of alternate terms like "restructuring, etc." but it all means the same thing: unsecured and equity holders get wiped out, the secured creditors get the assets (usually giving the company some type of debt payment relief), while management and workers get to keep their jobs.

  • Reply to

    PGN BOD..

    by luke.2012 Sep 17, 2015 9:30 AM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Sep 17, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    "Happens every time" - well, there you have it. A worthy strategy - wait for BK and the stock to pop back up to a buck, then sell for a profit. Good luck sir, hopefully you are right. I personally will stand at least 10' away from touching this thing - as a former shareholder, it has been intriguing to watch this stock. Bad spinoff timing, I don't really fault mgmt. too much considering they've been stuck with a bunch of older assets in one of the worst business climates for offshore drillers in 30 years.

  • Reply to

    PGN BOD..

    by luke.2012 Sep 17, 2015 9:30 AM
    chunkybunky2527 chunkybunky2527 Sep 17, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    I don't think you get it. The bondholders are senior to the equity holders, and they too are down big. And also likely much more organized than the equity holders. IMO, I would bet that the bondholders are pushing management and the board to file a pre-packaged BK, which would completely wipe out the equity and make the bondholders the full owners of the assets. In return, management will likely get to keep their jobs. It is a zero-sum game - the bondholders will "win" by wiping out the equity holders in this scenario.

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