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Panera Bread Company Message Board

citation502 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 6, 2015 5:12 PM Member since: Apr 22, 2007
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  • citation502 by citation502 Feb 6, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    Folks put far more research into a thousand dollar purchase of a refrigerator than they do into purchasing the questionable interest (not stock) that they get under the symbol BABA. Interesting human behavior, but rather predictable when a stock has a cult following.

  • citation502 by citation502 Jan 29, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    Boeing (BA) PT Lifted to $160 at Canaccord Genuity
    8:51 AM ET, 01/29/2015 - StreetInsider
    Canaccord Genuity reiterated a Buy rating on Boeing (NYSE: BA) and lifted its price target to $160.00 (from $150.00).
    "Confidence in cash flow outlook improving," the analyst said.

  • citation502 by citation502 Jan 7, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    GTIM apparently owns 48% of Bad Daddy's, and is a licensee of Bad Daddy's. Last May, I ate at a Bad Daddy's in Greenville, SC. Store was packed at noon on Saturday; burger was the best I've ever had. I was so impressed, I sought out the manager, and told him how pleased i was. This was before I ever heard of GTIM. this makes me want to stay long GTIM and add to position.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • citation502 by citation502 Dec 8, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    this from an article at seeking alpha tonight, citing a UBS study:

    The UBS analysts also looked at the effectiveness of ads shown on the various social networks. They report that 15% of Facebook users said they had bought something they saw on the platform within the last month. That makes Facebook 1.2 times as effective as Instagram, 1.6 times as effective as Twitter and 1.8 times as effective as Pinterest.

    DISCLOSURE: I'm long FB

    Sentiment: Buy

  • citation502 citation502 Dec 5, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    there is NO such thing as a sure thing in stocks. but FB is about as close as one can come. Everyone has to have some position in FB, just to hold for the long term. It's going to be around a very very long time.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • citation502 by citation502 Dec 3, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    will put it on again if the stock bounces upwards

  • citation502 citation502 Dec 1, 2014 8:36 PM Flag

    respectfully, I give up trying to make simple things clear to mdemamba, who is obviously an IDIOT. Presumably others here can understand and, when they look at a cash flow statement, they can READ, too

  • Reply to

    somewhat reluctantly, I'm out at $49 per-share

    by citation502 Nov 21, 2014 2:36 PM
    citation502 citation502 Dec 1, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    thanks, i started tip-toeing back in at 37, maybe too early

  • citation502 citation502 Dec 1, 2014 7:31 PM Flag

    mdemamba should not mislead others here. If you look at a cash flow statement (which he or she evidently never has), and you work your way from top to bottom, you will see that "change in liabilities" expressed as a positive number flows straight through to the bottom line "net change in cash." Liars can figure, but figures don't lie. Far more than the NOMINAL positive "change in cash" for AMZN is reflected in increased liabilities, year after year

  • citation502 citation502 Dec 1, 2014 6:23 PM Flag

    Using Yahoo Finance's numbers on cash flow, the net change in cash for the year ending 12/31/13 was a little over a half a billion dollars. For the same period, the INCREASE in liabilities (which amounts to an addition to total cash) was more than FIVE billion dollars. AMZN's financial picture grows worse each year, even with 25%-plus revenue growth. As someone said here, it's a broken business model that has some strange appeal to the bulls. Have no idea why or how

  • citation502 citation502 Dec 1, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    No, if you calculate all the components that go into cash flow, AMZN's is decidedly NEGATIVE. The nominal positive free cash flow is dwarfed by the INCREASES in liabilities (which are counted as positive numbers in FCF, but are actually a worsening of the bottom line on cash). FB and BABA are quite different in terms of free cash flow. both of them are positive.

  • citation502 citation502 Dec 1, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    No, if you calculate all the components that go into cash flow, AMZN's is decidedly NEGATIVE. The nominal positive free cash flow is dwarfed by the INCREASES in liabilities (which are counted as positive numbers in FCF, but are actually a worsening of the bottom line on cash). FB and BABA are quite different in terms of free cash flow. both of them are positive.

  • citation502 citation502 Dec 1, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    happihammer: respectfully, if you look at the components of amzn's cash flow, you can see clearly that it is the INCREASE in liabilities that constitutes more than 100% of the nominal free cash flow Without taking on more debt, the company has been consistently cash flow NEGATIVE for some time now.

  • Sales, both in stores and online, from Thanksgiving through the weekend were estimated to have dropped 11 percent, to $50.9 billion from $57.4 billion last year, according to preliminary survey results released Sunday by the National Retail Federation. Sales fell despite many stores opening earlier than ever on Thanksgiving Day.

    And though many retailers offered the same aggressive discounts online as they did in their stores, the Web failed to attract more shoppers or spending over the four-day holiday weekend than last year, the retail industry group said. The average person who shopped over the weekend spent $159.55 at online retailers, down 10.2 percent from last year.

    Overall, 133.7 million people shopped or planned to shop at stores or online over the four-day weekend, 5.2 percent fewer than last year, the retail federation said. And shoppers spent an average of $380.95 over the four days, 6.4 percent less than the $407.02 they spent last year.

  • which almost always presages a big sell off, sometimes over months, sometimes more quickly

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to


    by citation502 Nov 30, 2014 4:54 PM
    citation502 citation502 Nov 30, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    thank you for the thoughtful response. much appreciated

  • I posed a question on the amzn board about why BABA (in which I have no position) is so much more profitable than AMZN. I received the following very thoughtful response:

    There is a rule in retailing that all steps which are necessary to convey the product between the manufacturer and consumer must be performed. (You can eliminate the middle man but not the middleman's function.) Alibaba is performing those functions in a more efficient manner than Amazon. Amazon buys products, has them shipped to its warehouses where it unloads and stores the products. When a purchase is made, Amazon retrieves the product from storage and ships to the consumer. Alibaba simply, for most products, links the manufacturer and the consumer, thus avoiding the extra receiving, storage, and shipment activity that Amazon still performs. Under these conditions, Amazon will never be able to successfully compete with Alibaba. Amazon has an out-of-date business model.

  • I'm short AMZN and watching BABA. I can find NO justification for AMZN's price (or anywhere near current price). My serious inquiry (please be factual) is WHY is BABA so profitable when AMZN is so consistently unprofitable. AMZN actually warned it may LOSE money in this Christmas quarter (usually the only one in which it makes a net profit). Thanks in advance.

  • Reply to


    by hawkeyes55555 Nov 28, 2014 11:04 AM
    citation502 citation502 Nov 28, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Avoid energy-related stocks UNLESS they are stocks that benefit from lower oil and gas prices. No need to be a hero in a sector that is going to be out of favor for awhile. Go elsewhere. If you must be in energy, try refiners, such as VLO

  • citation502 by citation502 Nov 28, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    the following observation from a very well-written article at seekingalpha tonight:

    The defaults are coming

    At the present levels, it doesn't matter if shale is profitable or not (as many are commenting on, lately). The fact is that every lending committee on every bank exposed to these things is going to turn the taps shut. No more credit, mostly new renewals, etc. Companies in this sector, which face the need to refinance large slugs of debt are going to be taken to the cleaners.

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