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Perficient Inc. Message Board

citi7trader 160 posts  |  Last Activity: May 4, 2016 6:31 PM Member since: Dec 19, 2006
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  • citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 6:31 PM Flag

    These numbers are consistent but not moving much over the last few quarters. So Orexigen took the controls from Takeda and now has the plan to increase the Orex share of revenue by 4 times while using cost effieciencies in the US. Adding Europe and Asian partners that will double the revenue but not double the cost of revenue. There are catalysts coming to expand the pps and the use of Contrave/Mysimba in the US and around the world. As Orex stands now, it is way under priced for where it is headed. This low price is directly due to the short manipulation of the share price but that can't last. This makes opportunity for retail buyers considering that Baupost bought millions of shares at a much higher price and expects to be extremely profitable in a world where the obese outnumber the underfed for the first time in human history resulting in large added cost to health care. Countries everywhere will be looking for ways to fix this oversized problem that if unchecked will continue to outstrip the economies capacity to pay. The US has "The Treat and Reduce Obesity Act of 2015" sitting in Congress waiting to get back to business and should double whatever the Orex share price is on that day. There will be other catalysts before and after but this one will be a very strong price mover. Keep watching.

  • citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 4:59 PM Flag

    "Orexigen can achieve profitability beginning in full year 2019 and that the capital we raised in March in connection with the Contrave acquisition will be sufficient to get us there," Narachi said.

  • 1st Quarter 2015 revenue - $4,359.....2nd Quarter - $5,194.....3rd Quarter - $9,974 (added royalty payment)....4th Quarter 2015 - $4,932

    1st Quarter 2016 - $5,000 ... Orexigen

  • Reply to

    Strong BUY with short term target of 0.60

    by edgar_duff_funds May 4, 2016 1:28 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    Delisting would take one year to complete. All the positives and revenues and partners coming in make a delisting look silly don't you think?

  • Reply to

    Strong BUY with short term target of 0.60

    by edgar_duff_funds May 4, 2016 1:28 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 2:13 PM Flag

    That price is just for example of how easy it would be for Baupost to take this company private and it might happen if Baupost wants to take the Big Short here off the table. It would be that easy.

  • Reply to

    Strong BUY with short term target of 0.60

    by edgar_duff_funds May 4, 2016 1:28 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 1:55 PM Flag

    By the way, Baupost Group made an additional $165 million investment in the company on March 15th and if they wanted to buy the company out and go private it would take around another $100 million @ $1.00 per share. Institutions own over 80% of Orex stock including Baupost recent buys and many would object strongly to such a low price buyout.

  • Reply to

    Strong BUY with short term target of 0.60

    by edgar_duff_funds May 4, 2016 1:28 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 1:53 PM Flag

    Not an issue for this company since Contrave already has 50% of the Obesity market in the US.

  • Reply to

    Strong BUY with short term target of 0.60

    by edgar_duff_funds May 4, 2016 1:28 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    Orex has over $300 million cash right now and "50 % of the obesity" market sales in the US

  • Reply to

    Strong BUY with short term target of 0.60

    by edgar_duff_funds May 4, 2016 1:28 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    Orexigen just got a European partner and an Asian partner and that revenue will double the current revenue and the partner is doing all the marketing costs there. Tapping into other markets around the world is Orexigen's pipeline.

  • Reply to

    Strong BUY with short term target of 0.60

    by edgar_duff_funds May 4, 2016 1:28 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    From 12/31/2015 to 3/31/2016 some institutions sold about one million Orex and other institutions bought about the same amount and that is not counting Baupost buys of Orex.

  • Reply to

    Strong BUY with short term target of 0.60

    by edgar_duff_funds May 4, 2016 1:28 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 4, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    This stock is under complete manipulation and it is illegal the way it is being done. All that retail shareholders need to know is that a large short fund is here to make lots of money buying retail investors shares at this extremely low price. If the SEC was watching this would not be happening and the stock would be closer to $2.

  • citi7trader citi7trader May 2, 2016 5:24 PM Flag

    Of course it is manipulation and you need to know only that a large short fund is here to make lots of money from retail investors buying their shares. It is a hard (some say illegal/criminal methods of trade) squeeze on small longs but it definitely won't last. Institutions aren't selling - why should you? Baupost is buying.

  • Reply to

    BAUPOST buys more shares

    by edgar_duff_funds Apr 29, 2016 3:57 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 1, 2016 5:48 PM Flag

    From 12/31/2015 to 3/31/2016 some institutions sold about one million Orex and other institutions bought about the same amount and that is not counting Baupost buys of Orex. So as it stands institutions are (very) strong on Orexigen and all this play dumping by the Big Short has all been a game to steal shares from weak retail investors. Why am I not surprised?...lol

  • Reply to

    BAUPOST buys more shares

    by edgar_duff_funds Apr 29, 2016 3:57 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader May 1, 2016 5:10 PM Flag

    Baupost is adding for obvious reasons.
    "Orexigen just got a European partner and that revenue will double the current revenue and the partner is doing all the marketing costs there. Tapping into other markets around the world is Orexigen's pipeline.

    Contrave is a unique drug combination and Orex has an exclusive patent on Contrave/Mysimba that has 18 years more to run.

    The CVOT study will have cost reductions and will be paid out over the next 6 years. Orex has over $300 million cash right now (with revenue it is enough to take Orex to breakeven point says CEO) and 50% of the obesity market sales in the US and will continue to add revenue and the EU partner will add a lot more sales revenue. Orex is growing and will now be getting 100% of US revenue with the new business plan and improved cost efficiency and is a big move away from Takeda which was taking 75% of revenue for itself. That is why Baupost is such a big spender here.

    Baupost Group made an additional $165 million investment in the company on March 15th and if they wanted to buy the company out and go private it would take around another $100 million @ $1.00 per share. I think the other 80% of institutions owning a part of Orex would object strongly to such a low price buyout."

  • Reply to

    PANIC --- PANIC --- PANIC (for shorts?)

    by citi7trader Apr 21, 2016 6:41 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader Apr 22, 2016 11:46 AM Flag

    Orexigen just got a European partner and that revenue will double the current revenue and the partner is doing all the marketing costs there. Tapping into other markets around the world is Orexigen's pipeline.

    Contrave is a unique drug combination and Orex has an exclusive patent on Contrave/Mysimba that has 18 years more to run.

    The CVOT study will have cost reductions and will be paid out over the next 6 years. Orex has over $300 million cash right now and 50 % of the obesity market sales in the US and will continue to add revenue and the EU partner will add a lot more sales revenue. Orex is growing and will now be getting 100% of US revenue with the new business plan and improved cost efficiency and is a big move away from Takeda which was taking 75% of revenue for itself. That is why Baupost is such a big spender here.

    Baupost Group made an additional $165 million investment in the company on March 15th and if they wanted to buy the company out and go private it would take around another $100 million @ $1.00 per share. I think the other 80% of institutions owning a part of Orex would object strongly to such a low price buyout.

  • Yesterday Announcement
    April 20, 2016 5:00 PM

    Update and Discuss First Quarter 2016 Financial Results on May 4, 2016

    Is this why big short made his big push down today to take out stops and whatever else was available? May 4th management responds to this artificial take down from $1.25. Baupost Group (largest Orexigen investor) plans to take another $165 million worth of Orex? Or does Baupost plan to eventually buyout the company and go private? Stay tuned - institutional ownership is now over 80%.

  • Reply to

    Dont look now - more Easy Money Sonny.

    by martinmcflyyy Apr 14, 2016 3:15 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader Apr 14, 2016 4:21 PM Flag

    It is all part of the reorganization of Orexigen and getting cleaned up from the Takeda mismanagement of Contrave.

  • Reply to

    Dont look now - more Easy Money Sonny.

    by martinmcflyyy Apr 14, 2016 3:15 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader Apr 14, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    Checking the news and Orex CEO is talking to the FDA about the new CV study.

  • Reply to

    Something New

    by citi7trader Apr 11, 2016 3:37 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader Apr 11, 2016 4:37 PM Flag

    As I said the big short makes nothing until he buys back all those short shares and from what I see on Level2, the short mainly is trading with himself trying to scare up whatever retail sellers there are with the price and volume which he is creating. Looks like a pretty desperate move. Any retail sellers left down here?

  • Reply to

    Something New

    by citi7trader Apr 11, 2016 3:37 PM
    citi7trader citi7trader Apr 11, 2016 4:14 PM Flag

    The big longs who just laid out $165 million investing in Orex a few days ago will have no trouble taking the pps wherever they want it. Unlike the short who if he doesn't get covered will be the big loser. Which side do you want to be on? A short with less than 20 mm short shares or a big long that has multiples of the amount standing firm backing the stock all the way. "A short has to cover or he makes nothing." A long has the sky for a limit. Orex has 50% of the market now. Its competitors are shrinking which adds to Contrave sales. Europe is just opening up with a new partner and the rest of the world to follow bringing large increase in revenue. How can it get any better?

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