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Apollo Global Management, LLC Message Board

citiccgirl 3735 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 23, 2015 11:40 AM Member since: Apr 18, 2008
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  • citiccgirl citiccgirl Jul 23, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    More of the article
    "The simple fact is we need all of the pipe we can get in this country. Oil by train costs $13 more per barrel than oil by pipe and in an era where we are not as competitive as we like, it is suicidal to keep using rail. So oil pipes are especially needed at these prices.

    Natural gas? I know this will shock people, but it is in incredible demand all over the country in part because of the closure of coal plants and in part because of a shortage of natural gas in the one-time big exporter Mexico and also because Cheniere Energy (LNG) is on the cusp of shipping liquefied natural gas and it is incredibly anxious to line up all the pipe it can from the many different shales around the country. Exported nat gas will very shortly encompass 10% of productions, so the industry is desperate for pipes.

    So, it is not like the lower price of either commodity is going to impact all but the gunslinger MLPs and that's a minority.

    This is about etiquette and honor. No one in this business is allowed, publicly, to say "it's this fund, he's in trouble, he's doing the selling and we are going to destroy him by short selling all his positions into oblivion until he capitulates."

    What makes me so certain that this is all one big liquidation? Well how about Williams Partners (WPZ)? It just this week boosted its quarterly distribution from to 85 cents from 59 cents, a staggering amount. If it were going to cut its dividend, why would it just raise it, giving the stock, which trades at $45, a 7.5% yield."

    i don't know if I can fit more

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Cramer wrote today' Energy MLPs Aren't Struggling Because of Fundamentals'
    Jim Cramer Following/ | Jul 23, 2015 | 6:52 AM EDT

    "These stocks are being liquidated and it isn't because of their fundamentals. It's because some unnamed moronic fund is out there flailing, dangerous, selling everything and when he's through the bear market in them will be done.

    How about the fact that right now Williams Companies (WMB) is pretty much in an auction mode having received a very real stock bid from Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) that at one point was worth $64, one it rejected for being way too low. WMB is now at $53 and is still very much in play.

    Whatever, we don't know when the unnatural selling will end. We do know that I think we will look back and think "How did they ever get so low?" Which is why, if you are willing to accept that it is unnatural selling and you can own something for more than a few days of this fool's pain, this, right now, is the time to buy these stocks."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • News Breaks

    June 26, 2015

    09:37 VRX ZTS

    Valeant unlikely to pursue Zoetis acquisition, CNBC's Faber says
    Valeant (VRX) reached out to Zoetis (ZTS) as a courtesy to common shareholder Bill Ackman and is unlikely to pursue an acquisition of the company, CNBC's David Faber reports. Valeant could change its approach and pursue a deal, Faber cautioned. Zoetis shares are down $3.98 to $51.39 in early trading. The animal health company jumped late yesterday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Valeant made a takeover approach.

    Faber is just guessing that VRX is not serious about buying ZTS anyway

    From Briefing This morning...He has no idea what VR is thinking!

    26-Jun-15 09:37 Zoetis pulls back off the open; Faber on CNBC downplays report of VRX approach

    •David Faber on CNBC notes he had info 5-weeks ago of a brief conversation between ZTS and VRX, and his judgement was that this was not going to occur and not worth pursuing as a story.
    •Faber notes VRX Chairman was simply doing a courtesy call on behalf of shareholder Bill Ackman, and nothing was expected to come of it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • INOV

    News Breaks

    June 10, 2015

    17:18 EDT INOV Inovalon: Wells Fargo discloses 10.6% passive stake in 13G filing

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • INOV

    News Breaks

    June 10, 2015

    INOV BAMCO raises passive stake in Inovalon to 30.48% from 23.24%

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • STRL..much of their construction business is Texas and Louisianan..after Katrina STRL wen up like gangbusters...huge gain, peri..sadly with these floods in Texas they stand to make a lot

    STRL Sterling Construction (STRL 3.98) initiated with a Buy at Maxim Group; tgt $6.

    Firm notes STRL is a leading heavy civil construction company that specializes in transportation and water infrastructure projects, primarily in Texas, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, California, and Hawaii, complementing these states' growing infrastructure budgets and long-term population growth trends. Their thesis and PT are supported by a P/E and EV/EBITDA analysis that compares STRL to a peer group of industrial infrastructure companies. Currently, shares of STRL trade at a P/E of 9.1x their 2016 estimates, versus its peer group's average of 16.4x

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • IDTI

    Integrated Device target raised to $29 at Topeka Capital Markets

    Topeka Capital Markets raises their IDTI tgt to $29 from $24 noting they attended the IDTI Analyst Day, where attendance levels and investor interest were very strong and mgmt was confident regarding growth and margin opportunities. While mgmt reaffirmed prior growth guidance, firm was encouraged by the growth opportunity presented for both existing and newly announced products. With technology differentiation, end market diversity and benefit from strong secular trends, firm expects co to significantly outgrow overall semiconductors. Furthermore, they believe that co can sustain relatively high margins and generate significant cash flow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • News Breaks
    May 21, 2015
    08:20 EDT

    MTZ MasTec coverage resumed with an Overweight at Stephens
    Target $23

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • FEIC FEI initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $90

    The Benchmark Company initiates FEIC with a Buy and price target of $90
    noting new products such as the Talos transmission electron microscope
    (TEM) and the Teneo scanning electron microscope (SEM) are gaining
    traction. In the third quarter of 2013 new products represented 22% of
    total bookings; this has grown to 70% of total orders in the first
    quarter of this year. Besides increased bookings, these products offer

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • My friend said this about LOCO...he was an accountant....still, is this true? Thank you if anyone knows :)
    My friend said this about LOCO...he was an accountant.

    LOCO is being singled out because it operates so many units in LA which wants to raise the minimum wage to $15 hr. Most of their revenues comes from franchise fees which are based upon a percentage of sales. If franchisees need to raise menu prices due to higher labor costs, then LOCO will actually earn higher franchise fees. Also, in LA, occupancy and food costs are the main drivers, not labor. Yes, it will hurt a little, but not as much as the stock is being sold.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • HKSA started some ..An Emerging Growth stock added today

    Heska (HSKA #11) returns to our rankings this week. The company sells veterinary diagnostic products with a core focus on companion animals (canine and feline). Products include blood testing instruments, digital imaging products, software as well as single use products (in-clinic heartworm tests, heartworm preventive products, allergy tests etc.) It also sells private label vaccines and pharmaceuticals for cattle and small mammals.
    Heska a play on changing veterinary practices. Vets have moved away from annual vaccines and marked-up pharma sales (the move toward generic drugs makes marking up more difficult). As such, vets are moving more toward wellness and diagnostic products. A big trend is for vets wanting the ability to perform diagnostic testing in-house so results come back while pet owners are there rather than waiting days for an outside lab. It works well for Heska in that it makes money on the blood analyzer equipment sales and it has an ongoing revenue stream from the consumables.

    Of note, HSKA’s newly launched Element HT5 five-part hematology analyzer has been very popular as it’s quite a bit faster than older models. In fact, HSKA ran out of inventory in Q1. We caution that HSKA is small and thinly traded but the stock has been making a nice move higher on a series of strong earnings results with nice margin expansion.

    6 million share float

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • citiccgirl citiccgirl Apr 7, 2015 1:48 PM Flag

    $NVTA I wonder if MD Cancer Center and Dr. Rosenberg of NIC (the top 2 cancer research centers in USA) are also pumping this stock?

    $NVTA All they are doing is going after every patient in America to have a Genetic test and change standard of care, thats all... nothingbig

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Go to Stock twits and look at the NVTA thread. I really love these guys they really do their homework. They were in QURE before the BMY news yesterday

    eg StockReversals
    $NVTA Baker Brothers 16%, Blackrock 14%, Insiders 24%, Deerfield tripled position at IPO. CEO co founded $INCY and $GHDX. Do the math

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NVTA From Briefing ..they love this IPO

    by citiccgirl Mar 12, 2015 1:25 PM
    citiccgirl citiccgirl Mar 12, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    Looking ahead, NVTA plans to continue reducing its cost of goods sold while also increasing test volumes and improving reimbursement and cash collections. NVTA provided guidance for 2015 of delivering 14,000-17,000 billable tests to its customers. In addition, the company expects to increase its test menu to cover more than 500 genes (currently offers testing for 216 genes).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Story Stocks: Invitae (NVTA) - Genetic Testing Company Reports Q4 Results, Lists Key Indicators of Success

    Invitae, a provider of genetic info to mainstream medical practices, reported fourth quarter and year-end results after the close on Tuesday. Results from the quarter included EPS of ($16.75) on revenues of $0.876 million.However, its worth noting that the company is still in the developmental stage, and in light of this, NVTA provided other key indicators of success.

    First, in case you're not familiar with NVTA, Invitae is focused on making comprehensive genetic testing more affordable and accessible. Its goal is to consolidate the majority of the world's genetic tests into a single service, then ultimately providing that service at a lower price and faster turnaround time than most single gene tests currently available.

    NVTA launched its first commercial offering in late Nov 2013. The company initially charged $1,500 per sample, and allowed clients to receive test results on any or all of the 216 genes tested in the multi-gene panels. Previously, customers would need to have several tests done to test different genes, and would incur separate costs for each additional test.

    Turning to the key indicators of success, the first thing that jumps out is the decrease in average cost per billable from $1,500 to under $1,200. Additionally, NVTA secured reimbursement contracts with Blue Shield of California and SelectHealth, and became licensed for Medicare, which should help speed up the collection period and generate more cash flow. Lastly, while revenues grew nearly 900% year/year in fourth quarter 2014, total costs and operating expenses grew just 27% over the same period. Although a 900% revenue growth rate is not sustainable over the long term, and the sample size thusfar is small, it is a positive to see revenues increasing at a faster rate than expenses.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 24-Feb-15 06:22

    INC Research Holdings beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY15 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

    Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.26 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.21; revenues rose 22.5% year/year to $213.7 mln vs the $207.55 mln consensus. Net new business awards of $316.3 million, representing growth of 10.9% and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5x.

    Co issues guidance for FY15, sees EPS of $1.19-1.29 vs. $1.20 Capital IQ Consensus; sees FY15 revs of $870-900 mln vs. $879.23 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • citiccgirl citiccgirl Feb 24, 2015 1:06 PM Flag


    • Given its double-digit earnings growth potential, INCR's valuation looks reasonable in our view. At the moment, it is trading with a 1-year forward P/E of 21.8x (using the mid-point of its guidance) and a 1-year forward P/S of 1.8x. Meanwhile, PRAH is trading at 20.5x and 1.2x, also quite reasonable.


    INCR's solid Q4 report and guidance bolsters are bullish stance on the stock as demand for its services remains very healthy. While INCR won't be confused for a young, up-and-coming tech company growing the topline by triple digits, it should be poised for solid double-digit earnings growth over the foreseeable future.

    After reaching post-IPO highs in mid-January, the stock tumbled lower over the following month before stabilizing in the $22.50 areas. Since then, the stock has been strong, up nearly 20%. There is resistance in the $28 area that traders should be mindful of, but, if it can push past that level to trade to new post-IPO highs, the stock could gain additional attention from traders.

    All in all, we view INCR as a solid intermediate term investment opportunity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • citiccgirl citiccgirl Feb 24, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    Guidance & Outlook

    • INCR guided for EPS of $1.19-$1.29 vs. the $1.20 Capital IQ Consensus. At the mid-point, this would be $1.24 vs. $1.20. For revenue, INCR projected $870-$900 million vs. the $879.23 million. Again, this is above consensus at the mid-point, $885 million vs. $879.23 million.

    • On a growth basis, this would equate to year/year EPS growth of 49% and revenue growth of 9%.

    • In our past reports on INCR and PRAH, we have discussed how the ramping activity for clinical trials has provided a sharp pick-up in demand for CROs. Additionally, many pharmaceutical and biotech companies are finding it more cost effective to hire CROs to conduct trials. This trend continues to play out as INCR's backlog grew 7$ in FY14 to $1.6 billion. The company noted during its conference call that the most recent market studies continue to estimate the market for CRO services for Phase 2-Phase 4 clinical development to grow in the high single digits over the next three to five years.

    • From a more company-specific standpoint, INCR's acquisition and integration of MEK consulting in 1H14 has also provided a catalyst, expanding its reach and footprint in several geographies like Greece, Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, and Japan.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • THE NEXT BIG THING | Updated: 24-Feb-15 | Archive
    Analysis of upcoming IPOs and spin-offs, as well as secondary plays on highly-anticipated new issues.

    INC Research (INCR): Strong Quarter Bolsters Bullish Sentiment

    Before the open, INC Research (INCR) issued its Q4 earnings, its first quarterly report since going public on November 7, 2014. The company handily surpassed the top and bottom line estimates and issued FY15 EPS and revenue guidance that is above consensus at the mid-point of the range.  The results have popped shares higher by as much #$%$. 

    A week earlier, its CRO peer PRA Health Sciences (PRAH) -- which went public a week after INCR -- delivered its Q4 results, also exceeding the consensus estimates, providing an indication that INCR might follow suit with a solid report. With both companies outperforming expectations, it is also further evidence that the CRO industry is buzzing with activity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

18.62-0.04(-0.21%)Oct 9 4:00 PMEDT