Eagle Rock Energy Partners, L.P. Message Board
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LPG Shipping Market Seen Facing Looming Atlantic Vessel Shortage
by betting_my_bundle •Jun 4, 2013 10:09 AMExcellent article!! Thank you!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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News Breaks
June 18, 2013
07:14 EDT GASS
theflyonthewall StealthGas initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo
Price target range $14-$15Sentiment: Strong Buy
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OPK is doing a convertaible and a 24.76M share common stock offering for holders...they haven't price yet
by citiccgirl •Jun 17, 2013 6:37 PMThat's not what it says on the Fly on the wall. The filings for both were announced on June 14, 2013...Last Friday evening at 5:35 PM
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There is going to be 25 mil shares added to the float when the secondary is priced...then the $175 convertible notes that will be converted to common shares
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OPK
June 14, 2013 OPKO Health files to sell 24.76M shares of common stock for holders
OPKO Health files to sell $175M of 3.0% convertible senior notes for holders
They haven't priced yet.... -
Accelerating EPS gains in '14 to be fueled by fleet expansion. GASS is acquiring three second-hand vessels in 2Q13 and it will take on 4 newbuilds in 2014 and 2 additional new ships in early 2015, bringing its LPG fleet count to 42 ships, or roughly a 17% market share of its niche segment (up from 14% today). Even with the very modest improvements we forecast in rates through the end of 2014 (conservative, owing to the muted historical volatility in this segment), we believe this tonnage will drive double-digit top- and bottom-line growth beginning in 3Q13, with our full-year 2014 EPS estimate representing year-over-year growth of 32%.
Robust balance sheet could drive further fleet expansion. The 9 new ships identified for delivery through early 2015 total about $200 million in capital outlays, only half of the $400 million GASS could potentially spend on ships following its $115 million follow-on equity offering in April. Management stated that there are virtually no second-hand vessels available for purchase today and that it will likely look to expand through fuel-efficient newbuilds; though, we believe GASS will continue to attempt to find more prompt tonnage to more quickly attain its target market share of 20-25%.
Target price of $14 points to material upside. GASS is the only pure-play LPG shipping stock in the U.S., yet the stock still trades at 6.0x 2014E EV/EBITDA, a 17% discount to its historical average though we believe it should trade at a premium to the mid-cycle multiple as it is poised to embark on a path of strong EPS growth.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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EVERCORE analysis on GASS
Favorable Thesis Remains Intact
GASS posted 1Q13 EPS of $0.26 (excluding one-time items), exactly in line with our estimate but below the average Street forecast of $0.30. There were few surprises in the quarter outside of a drydocking that also resulted in loss of hire (the company estimated a $0.03 EPS impact, but we had already reflected this drydocking in our estimate). More importantly, the long-term growth thesis for GASS remains intact with 9 LPG carriers scheduled for delivery by 1H15, while its cash flow visibility has improved with new time-charters on 4 ships (bringing contract coverage to 77% in '13 and 47% in '14). We are maintaining our 2013 and 2014 EPS forecasts of $1.02 and $1.35, respectively, and we reiterate our Overweight rating and $14 price target on GASS.
Favorable niche segment fundamentals still the key to thesis. We believe that GASS's fleet expansion is timed well with the tightening supply/demand dynamics in its core pressurized LPG market, with the orderbook remaining under 6% (15 vessels) and the global supply of LPG slated to continue to accelerate as new LNG projects start-up and as new refinery capacity, primarily in the East, comes online over the next few years. Moreover, with only 8-10 Japanese yards specializing in the construction of Handysize LPG ships newbuild slots are mostly filled into late 2015, providing good visibility on the limited capacity expansion in this market.
historical volatility in this segment), we believe this tonnage will drive double-digit top- and boSentiment: Strong Buy
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FRO Frontline strength in today's session being attributed to positive comments from CEO John Fredriksen regarding growth in LPG production
From an article today
"Famed Norwegian shipping magnate John Fredriksen aptly summarized the factors underpinning the sanguine outlook for LPG carriers in a press release announcing Frontline 2012's (Oslo: FRNT) order of two carriers from China's Jiangnan Shipyard: "The high growth in LPG production, combined with a low new-building order book and historic low new building prices for fuel-efficient tonnage, creates a unique opportunity to enter this market."
GASS is the only pure play LPG tanker companySentiment: Strong Buy
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News Breaks
June 12, 2013
06:49 EDT AMRI
theflyonthewall: AMRI re-initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee
Target $15Sentiment: Strong Buy
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GASS StealthGas initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
Target $14. :theflyonthewallSentiment: Strong Buy
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Thank you so much for this research report...Long GASS and adding :))
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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3 Commodity Plays That Could See Double-Digit Returns in the Next 6 Months..article
by citiccgirl •May 24, 2013 2:15 PMThis article is about GLNG and GLOG...GLOG filed a 500mil mixed shelf last night...so wait for that. Buy GLNG on this pull back
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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On Friday, May 17, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced a most-interesting decision that could mean big upside for natural gas prices and for the companies that export liquefied natural gas, or LNG. The DOE put out a press release that gave permission to one Texas-based company to export LNG to countries that do not have a Free Trade Agreement with the United States.
Interestingly, the $10 billion LNG facility run by Freeport LNG Expansion, L.P. and FLNG Liquefaction, LLC actually will be converted from an existing LNG import facility to an export facility. This transition from LNG importer to exporter represents a long-term seismic, and in my view quite investable, shift in the LNG industry.
According to my friend and commodities expert, Tom Essaye of The 7:00's Report, this new LNG facility is set to export 1.4 billion cubic feet of LNG starting in 2017. Tom, who follows the natural gas space closely, informed me that this is now the fourth facility to get regulatory approval to export LNG.
I suspect that this DOE move is another rung in the bullish ladder for LNG, and it's a trend that could increase the amount of LNG that will be exported in the years to come.
To put this situation into perspective, I turn to Essaye, who explained, "Currently, there are 19 projects awaiting approval to export LNG. If all of them get approval, that would result in a 60% per annum increase through 2020 in the volumes of LNG being shipped around the world."
Permission to export more LNG will likely translate into increased global demand for this cleanest of fossil fuels, and that increased demand will be bullish for natural gas prices and for companies in the LNG transport space.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-commodity-plays-could-see-000000713.htmlSentiment: Strong Buy
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GLNG...I was just going to say they are the beneficiaries of these LNG export licenses...and it is stating to move...then they plugged it on CNBC...that also pumped LNG and COP
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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new highs again - attacking $4.30 level - great performance
by hageneriksson •May 14, 2013 1:11 PMGGS has hit it's 200 day for the first time in over a year :))
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What is that? i don't see it
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GASS StealthGas initiated with an Overweight at Evercore Target $14.
by citiccgirl •May 6, 2013 3:41 PMbump...this is a stupid sell off....buy this dip
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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GASS has no publicly traded peers, so it is essentially a pure play in the rapidly expanding LPG Tanker Market
by citiccgirl •May 1, 2013 1:05 PMVladimir Jelisavcic was on fast Money the other night too he is bearish across the board on stocks and shipping stocks other than LNG Tankers and Product and Chemical Tankers. He is very bullish on these two shipping sectors. Vladimir Jelisavcic... a lot of good stuff on distressed debt too if anyone is interested in that
GASS is one of the only Product and Chemical tankers...no competition and such a beautiful fleet
The Liquid Petroleum Gas market increased dramatically after the 1973 oil crisis. Oil-producing countries became wealthier, while newly established national oil companies entered the market dynamically. LPG plants were being built worldwide as countries realized that the exports of LPG could generate a significant monetary return. The LPG market became truly global at this time.
LPG is produced commercially in two ways: It is extracted from natural gas or crude oil streams during initial processing, and it is obtained during the refining of crude oil. The two principal LPGs are propane and butane, and liquefaction reduces their volume by 270 times and 230 times respectively.
Most LPG produced in the world is used for heating and cooking, but large quantities are used as refinery feedstock, for example to improve gasoline quality, and as fuel for transportation vehicles or stationary generators (autogas).
Ammonia (NH3) is an important cargo in the liquefied gas trades. It is predominantly obtained by steam reforming natural gas and adding nitrogen and hydrogen. The main use of ammonia is in the production of fertilizers, but another important market its industrial application, mainly cooling and cleaning.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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News Breaks
May 6, 2013
GASS StealthGas initiated with an Overweight at Evercore
Target $14.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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5:00 AM President Obama has signaled his support for increasing the U.S.'s exports of natural gas, saying that the country will probably be a net seller of LNG by 2020. The Department of Energy is assessing applications for 20 projects to export gas to nations with which the U.S. doesn't have a free trade agreement. Companies that could benefit include Dominion Resources (D), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Oiltanking Partners (OILT), Williams Cos. (WMB), Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (BWP) and Sempra Energy (SRE). Dow Chemical (DOW) and Alcoa (AA) are among those to oppose increased LNG exports, as it could raise their costs.
Other companies that would benefit include GLNG TGP GMLP GLOG GTLS TKSentiment: Strong Buy