Being an IT professional and having to live and deal with Microsoft's products is the biggest stress in my life. Their stuff is buggy, Windows 8 is lame, Server 2012 is senseless, Exchange is buggy. You would think that by this day and age, they would have perfected some of their products. I'm no Apple advocate or Linux penguin. I'm just glad this isn't a provider of medical services. Our population would probably end up dead!
Flat revenue growth year over year.
Flat revenue growth going into next year.
No new products in the pipeline (XBOX 720 maybe).
Running out of ideas to copy-cat.
Windows 8 still sucks.
Office 2013--do you really need it if you already have 2010 or 2007?
Internet Explorer 10: more problems than a North Korean dictator.
I've been in ARR and others for the past year+. They all go this crazy swing, like the whole industry is crashing, then things stabalize. This happens about every 4 or 5 months. And everytime, it proves to be a buying opportunity. I've added about 15% more on this move. I knew it started with yesterday's move, and was expecting more today. I think it's about done. There's just no news to accommodate this wackiness.
To the executives at ARR, take a freaking lesson on how to do a successful secondary: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100740934?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=100740934%7CTesla+Offers+More+Stock;+
TSLA does a secondary and the CEO buys a huge chunck of it, and the stock is up 10% on the news. WOW. Talking about showing some faith in your company. It would be nice to see SOMEONE at ARR step in a buy just a hundred shares whenever they did SPO's. I was hoping someone would step in a buy some of this stock now, now that's it sitting at 10% below book value. SHEESH! Bunch of losers!
I think people are pulling their money out of boring stocks like ARR and putting their money to work in more exciting, fast-moving, risker assets. Even gold has turned to crud. Would you rather have your money sitting in ARR earning a mere 13% on dividends and losing 20% on capital, or have your money sitting in a stock like FSLR or TSLA? I'm long ARR, and right now, this stock is simply out of favor. Every stock has its day. Sit back and enjoy your dividends, waiting for your capital returns. Meanwhile though, broaden your portfolio and include some risker assets. You have to be diverse in the market. After 22 years in the market, I've finally figured that out.
Look at FSLR (and all other solar stocks), AMZN, GOOG, ESI, COCO, PCLN, NFLX. They all are following about the same chart pattern, and they all have this in common: recent high-flyers, and short coverage. Today is profit taking. I don't think the momentum has been broken, nor the bubble busted.
Capitulation has happened! I love it. Look at the 5yr chart on ARR. This mess happens at least once every 6 months. I bought in below $5. My avg price is now $6.40. I also bought in on MFA. I felt the need to diversify into non-agency to CYA. What a ride. Felt yesterday's dinner come up into my throat when we couldn't fetch a bid to save our lives earlier this morning. I think we may stabilize for now. Looking forward to dividend announcements starting early June. If they aren't cut, (they being NLY and AGNC), I think we can trend higher.
I rode through the Ninth Ward of New Orleans yesterday and was shocked to see roof-top solar on some of the homes there. Not sure how these people can afford this, but the leasing/agreements on this must be very reasonable. These weren't newer homes. In fact, the solar technology was probably more expensive then the homes themselves.
WOW! It was down only 2 cents today. I ALMOST didn't lose money today! woohoo! Any ideas as to why AGNC was up today? It took off and leveled off for remainder of today.
If book value is above $6 (still), then I say liquidate the freaking company and pay out a one-time dividend for proceeds and be done with it.
WTH? I'm so sick of this. So the jobs number is in, it's just right, and the fed may not do any tapering right away. I figured this would have been good for ARR. WTH?
Here's my take:
AGNC just announced that their book value has taken a 8% hit so far this quarter. If you apply that to ARR, maybe even 10%, that would put ARR's BV at about $6.00. That puts ARR trading well below. These stocks traditionally trade at about .95 to 1.05 of book value.
Next, ARR has confirmed their $.07 per month dividend. If the rate stays the same (which I'm shocked to see that it is, considering how bad this current quarter was supposed to be) or if it even goes to $.08 next quarter (which it could very well if things don't go haywire), then at the current price, you're looking at an annual yield of about 17%.
So...buy the stock NOW at $5. Get a $1 (20%) capital return if the stock heads back to $6, which would be a fair (yet cheap) price. Get a $.84 dividend (17%) for the next 12 months. That's a nice return of 37%. Would you really expect to get that kind of return out of the market in general right about now, considering the run we've had (excluding mREITs of course :( )? I think there' s a better chance of getting a 37% return on ARR within the next year then it is for the DOW30 to be trading at 20800.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There was no way to win today. If the fed would have tapered on QE, then rates would have headed higher and book values would have sunk. They kept things as-is, so now rates will fall and book values should rise. Either way, mREITS were going to drop today. Bought more NLY, ARR, and AGNC. A bottom has been set either way for rates. AGNC and NLY dividend cuts were minimal, and this was supposedly one of the worse quarter. ARR maintained dividend (with money to carry over to next qtr), and HTS even issued a buy-back program today. Things are looking up.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It's not all Ballmer's fault. It takes a company-wide effort to make so many #$%$ products with so many flaws. The fact that they're having to reorganize is because they're aware that they continue to fail on every front. Win8 came out late last year. 7 months later, they finally realize that more needs to be done to get their buts in gear. Thing is, they're so far behind right now, it's ridiculous.
I'm short the stock, and will add to my short if it bumps up to its 52-week high then retreats. If not, then I'll wait for my day. Earnings are due. I expect MSFT to cook the books like they did last quarter (hence, the resignation of their CFO) and expect to paint a pretty picture of how everything will be much better -- by the last calendar quarter and first quarter of last year. Same ole story!
Kills me to see this stock going higher. They just now announced a restructuring. No company that's doing great with business does such a thing. PC sales continue to fall, as iPad sales jump. Now, they just announced discounts on Surface RT (because they're not selling). Windows 8 is still a laggard. Enterprise sales are hitting a top; look at HP and Dell enterprise hardware sales--not really growing. Virtualization hits a max after awhile, and the need to upgrade hardware has to happen, but not to the degree you would expect. ORCL's shortcomings last quarter should be a good indicate of where enterprise software sales are headed.
Maxim joins the group with a downgrade of ARR today. Wow! Really? That's like calling the fire department after the house is burnt to the ground. Great call! Bunch of lamers. Now is the time to start buying these stocks, not selling them. Yea, we'll take the ding on book value hits this current quarter, but earnings and dividends should start to uptick later this year. Interest rates are stabilizing, the Fed is playing nice and being clear(er) about its plans, and borrowing rates are still near zero. I like my odds at this point.
Wow...your one liner makes more sense than the thousands of other posts around! You're right, the economy cannot support nor does it warrant a 10yr above 3%. There's already a lot NOT working out there, from labor market to housing. Rates have just barely ticked up, and housing has already taken a hit just in the past month. The fed's intent was to help housing by buying bonds. The fed will have a hard decision to make in the coming month. I really wish they never would have put their hands in this. Then again, if they hadn't, where would we be right now. GDP blows. Employment blows (unless you like low-paying jobs). Retailers are already starting to show signs of weakness. The stock market is extremely over-priced, and as soon as it takes a 10% dive (with or without fed moves), then people will get scared, pull their precious money out, we'll fall further, then the declines will quickly play into spending. The economy is so fragile right now. I think the moves in bonds is nothing more than a panic play, just like any other bubble.
I've been in ARR for almost 2 years. They're the least respected out of the group, in my opinion. NLY is the giant and AGNC is just freaking fat. Little ole ARR always takes the most bang and never recovers like the others. Yea, their dividends have been cut over the past 2 years. Yea, their book value has sunk. But what MREIT hasn't? I'm so tired of hearing the bashing as if ARR is the only one not cutting dividends and losing book value.
By the way, ARR did NOT cut their dividend this quarter while every other MREIT did.
My only concern is that they've not started focusing on non-agency purchases yet, and there maybe some concern about the phasing out of fannie and Freddie. My opinion (again), these agencies will not go away. They may be replaced or restructured. There will be a huge lobbying effort to keep some sort of backing in place, whether its a Freddie/fannie or some other "ie" insurer. Else, every attempt for a low-totem-pole American to purchase a house goes out the window.
I'm assuming this is new news (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100978693). It says where the Fed isn't quite ready to start tapering. And then the mReits take an immediate hit but seem to be stabilizing (but not rallying). Really? Seriously? What the heck is going to make people NOT want to sell these stocks. I figured this was the good news we were all (longs) were waiting for. I'm so over this.